A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

TOI-836 : a super-Earth and mini-Neptune transiting a nearby K-dwarf

Funding: TGW, ACC, and KH acknowledge support from STFC consolidated grant numbers ST/R000824/1 and ST/V000861/1, and UKSA grant ST/R003203/1.We present the discovery of two exoplanets transiting TOI-836 (TIC 440887364) using data from TESS Sector 11 and Sector 38. TOI-836 is a bright (T = 8.5 mag), high proper motion (∼200 mas yr−1), low metallicity ([Fe/H]≈−0.28) K-dwarf with a mass of 0.68 ± 0.05 M⊙ and a radius of 0.67 ± 0.01 R⊙. We obtain photometric follow-up observations with a variety of facilities, and we use these data-sets to determine that the inner planet, TOI-836 b, is a 1.70 ± 0.07 R⊕ super-Earth in a 3.82 day orbit, placing it directly within the so-called ‘radius valley’. The outer planet, TOI-836 c, is a 2.59 ± 0.09 R⊕ mini-Neptune in an 8.60 day orbit. Radial velocity measurements reveal that TOI-836 b has a mass of 4.5 ± 0.9 M⊕, while TOI-836 c has a mass of 9.6 ± 2.6 M⊕. Photometric observations show Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) on the order of 20 minutes for TOI-836 c, although there are no detectable TTVs for TOI-836 b. The TTVs of planet TOI-836 c may be caused by an undetected exterior planet.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

TOI-836: A super-Earth and mini-Neptune transiting a nearby K-dwarf

We present the discovery of two exoplanets transiting TOI-836 (TIC 440887364) using data from TESS Sector 11 and Sector 38. TOI-836 is a bright ($T = 8.5$ mag), high proper motion ($\sim\,200$ mas yr$^{-1}$), low metallicity ([Fe/H]$\approx\,-0.28$) K-dwarf with a mass of $0.68\pm0.05$ M$_{\odot}$ and a radius of $0.67\pm0.01$ R$_{\odot}$. We obtain photometric follow-up observations with a variety of facilities, and we use these data-sets to determine that the inner planet, TOI-836 b, is a $1.70\pm0.07$ R$_{\oplus}$ super-Earth in a 3.82 day orbit, placing it directly within the so-called 'radius valley'. The outer planet, TOI-836 c, is a $2.59\pm0.09$ R$_{\oplus}$ mini-Neptune in an 8.60 day orbit. Radial velocity measurements reveal that TOI-836 b has a mass of $4.5\pm0.9$ M$_{\oplus}$ , while TOI-836 c has a mass of $9.6\pm2.6$ M$_{\oplus}$. Photometric observations show Transit Timing Variations (TTVs) on the order of 20 minutes for TOI-836 c, although there are no detectable TTVs for TOI-836 b. The TTVs of planet TOI-836 c may be caused by an undetected exterior planet

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same regio

Population‐based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications in a prospective population‐based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two‐level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics

The Science Performance of JWST as Characterized in Commissioning

This paper characterizes the actual science performance of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), as determined from the six month commissioning period. We summarize the performance of the spacecraft, telescope, science instruments, and ground system, with an emphasis on differences from pre-launch expectations. Commissioning has made clear that JWST is fully capable of achieving the discoveries for which it was built. Moreover, almost across the board, the science performance of JWST is better than expected; in most cases, JWST will go deeper faster than expected. The telescope and instrument suite have demonstrated the sensitivity, stability, image quality, and spectral range that are necessary to transform our understanding of the cosmos through observations spanning from near-earth asteroids to the most distant galaxies.Comment: 5th version as accepted to PASP; 31 pages, 18 figures; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1538-3873/acb29

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

TOI-332 b : a super dense Neptune found deep within the Neptunian desert

To date, thousands of planets have been discovered, but there are regions of the orbital parameter space that are still bare. An example is the short period and intermediate mass/radius space known as the “Neptunian desert”, where planets should be easy to find but discoveries remain few. This suggests unusual formation and evolution processes are responsible for the planets residing here. We present the discovery of TOI-332 b, a planet with an ultra-short period of 0.78 d that sits firmly within the desert. It orbits a K0 dwarf with an effective temperature of 5251 ± 71 K. TOI-332 b has a radius of 3.20+ 0.16 −0.12 R⊕, smaller than that of Neptune, but an unusually large mass of 57.2 ± 1.6 M⊕. It has one of the highest densities of any Neptune-sized planet discovered thus far at 9.6+ 1.1 −1.3 g cm−3 . A 4-layer internal structure model indicates it likely has a negligible hydrogen-helium envelope, something only found for a small handful of planets this massive, and so TOI-332 b presents an interesting challenge to planetary formation theories. We find that photoevaporation cannot account for the mass loss required to strip this planet of the Jupiter-like envelope it would have been expected to accrete. We need to look towards other scenarios, such as high-eccentricity migration, giant impacts, or gap opening in the protoplanetary disc, to try and explain this unusual discovery

HD 219666 b: a hot-Neptune from TESS Sector 1

We report on the confirmation and mass determination of a transiting planet orbiting the old and inactive G7 dwarf star HD219666 (M-star = 0.92 +/- 0.03 M-circle dot, R-star = 1.03 +/- 0.03 R-circle dot, tau(star) = 10 +/- 2 Gyr). With a mass of M-b = 16.6 +/- 1.3 M-circle plus, a radius of R-b = 4.71 +/- 0.17 R-circle plus, and an orbital period of P-orb similar or equal to 6 days, HD219666 b is a new member of a rare class of exoplanets: the hot-Neptunes. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) observed HD219666 (also known as TOI-118) in its Sector 1 and the light curve shows four transit-like events, equally spaced in time. We confirmed the planetary nature of the candidate by gathering precise radial-velocity measurements with the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher (HARPS) at ESO 3.6 m. We used the co-added HARPS spectrum to derive the host star fundamental parameters (T-eff = 5527 +/- 65 K, log g(star) = 4.40 +/- 0.11 (cgs), [Fe/H] = 0.04 +/- 0.04 dex, log R-HK\u27 = -5.07 +/- 0.03), as well as the abundances of many volatile and refractory elements. The host star brightness (V = 9.9) makes it suitable for further characterisation by means of in-transit spectroscopy. The determination of the planet orbital obliquity, along with the atmospheric metal-to-hydrogen content and thermal structure could provide us with important clues on the formation mechanisms of this class of objects