Arctic cyclone water vapor isotopes support past sea ice retreat recorded in Greenland ice

Rapid Arctic warming is associated with important water cycle changes: sea ice loss, increasing atmospheric humidity, permafrost thaw, and water-induced ecosystem changes. Understanding these complex modern processes is critical to interpreting past hydrologic changes preserved in paleoclimate records and predicting future Arctic changes. Cyclones are a prevalent Arctic feature and water vapor isotope ratios during these events provide insights into modern hydrologic processes that help explain past changes to the Arctic water cycle. Here we present continuous measurements of water vapor isotope ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in Arctic Alaska from a 2013 cyclone. This cyclone resulted in a sharp d-excess decrease and disproportional δ18O enrichment, indicative of a higher humidity open Arctic Ocean water vapor source. Past transitions to warmer climates inferred from Greenland ice core records also reveal sharp decreases in d-excess, hypothesized to represent reduced sea ice extent and an increase in oceanic moisture source to Greenland Ice Sheet precipitation. Thus, measurements of water vapor isotope ratios during an Arctic cyclone provide a critical processed-based explanation, and the first direct confirmation, of relationships previously assumed to govern water isotope ratios during sea ice retreat and increased input of northern ocean moisture into the Arctic water cycle.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Nature Publishing Group. The published article can be found at: http://www.nature.com/srep

Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes

Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms

Development of a clinical decision model for thyroid nodules

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Thyroid nodules represent a common problem brought to medical attention. Four to seven percent of the United States adult population (10–18 million people) has a palpable thyroid nodule, however the majority (>95%) of thyroid nodules are benign. While, fine needle aspiration remains the most cost effective and accurate diagnostic tool for thyroid nodules in current practice, over 20% of patients undergoing FNA of a thyroid nodule have indeterminate cytology (follicular neoplasm) with associated malignancy risk prevalence of 20–30%. These patients require thyroid lobectomy/isthmusectomy purely for the purpose of attaining a definitive diagnosis. Given that the majority (70–80%) of these patients have benign surgical pathology, thyroidectomy in these patients is conducted principally with diagnostic intent. Clinical models predictive of malignancy risk are needed to support treatment decisions in patients with thyroid nodules in order to reduce morbidity associated with unnecessary diagnostic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were analyzed from a completed prospective cohort trial conducted over a 4-year period involving 216 patients with thyroid nodules undergoing ultrasound (US), electrical impedance scanning (EIS) and fine needle aspiration cytology (FNA) prior to thyroidectomy. A Bayesian model was designed to predict malignancy in thyroid nodules based on multivariate dependence relationships between independent covariates. Ten-fold cross-validation was performed to estimate classifier error wherein the data set was randomized into ten separate and unique train and test sets consisting of a training set (90% of records) and a test set (10% of records). A receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve of these predictions and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated to determine model robustness for predicting malignancy in thyroid nodules.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thyroid nodule size, FNA cytology, US and EIS characteristics were highly predictive of malignancy. Cross validation of the model created with Bayesian Network Analysis effectively predicted malignancy [AUC = 0.88 (95%CI: 0.82–0.94)] in thyroid nodules. The positive and negative predictive values of the model are 83% (95%CI: 76%–91%) and 79% (95%CI: 72%–86%), respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An integrated predictive decision model using Bayesian inference incorporating readily obtainable thyroid nodule measures is clinically relevant, as it effectively predicts malignancy in thyroid nodules. This model warrants further validation testing in prospective clinical trials.</p

Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants

Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra.publishedVersio

The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1\u201326 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215)

Major Cardiovascular Events After COVID-19, Event Rates Post-vaccination, Antiviral or Anti-inflammatory Therapy, and Temporal Trends: Rationale and Methodology of the Corona-VTE-Network Study

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with excess risk of cardiovascular and thrombotic events in the early post-infection period and during convalescence. Despite the progress in our understanding of cardiovascular complications, uncertainty persists with respect to more recent event rates, temporal trends, association between vaccination status and outcomes, and findings within vulnerable subgroups such as older adults (aged 65 years or older), or those undergoing hemodialysis. Sex-informed findings, including results among pregnant and breastfeeding women, as well as adjusted comparisons between male and female adults are similarly understudied. METHODS: Adult patients, aged ≥18 years, with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 who received inpatient or outpatient care at the participating centers of the registry are eligible for inclusion. A total of 10,000 patients have been included in this multicenter study, with Brigham and Women\u27s Hospital (Boston, MA) serving as the coordinating center. Other sites include Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Anne Arundel Medical Center, University of Virginia Medical Center, University of Colorado Health System, and Thomas Jefferson University Health System. Data elements will be ascertained manually for accuracy. The two main outcomes are 1) a composite of venous or arterial thrombotic events, and 2) a composite of major cardiovascular events, defined as venous or arterial thrombosis, myocarditis or heart failure with inpatient treatment, new atrial fibrillation/flutter, or cardiovascular death. Clinical outcomes are adjudicated by independent physicians. Vaccination status and time of inclusion in the study will be ascertained for subgroup-specific analyses. Outcomes are pre-specified to be reported separately for hospitalized patients versus those who were initially receiving outpatient care. Outcomes will be reported at 30-day and 90-day follow-up. Data cleaning at the sites and the data coordinating center and outcomes adjudication process are in-progress. CONCLUSIONS: The CORONA-VTE-Network study will share contemporary information related to rates of cardiovascular and thrombotic events in patients with COVID-19 overall, as well as within key subgroups, including by time of inclusion, vaccination status, patients undergoing hemodialysis, the elderly, and sex-informed analyses such as comparison of women and men, or among pregnant and breastfeeding women

Sensory Communication

Contains table of contents for Section 2, an introduction and reports on twelve research projects.National Institutes of Health Grant 5 R01 DC00117National Institutes of Health Contract 2 P01 DC00361National Institutes of Health Grant 5 R01 DC00126National Institutes of Health Grant R01-DC00270U.S. Air Force - Office of Scientific Research Contract AFOSR-90-0200National Institutes of Health Grant R29-DC00625U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-88-K-0604U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-91-J-1454U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-92-J-1814U.S. Navy - Naval Training Systems Center Contract N61339-93-M-1213U.S. Navy - Naval Training Systems Center Contract N61339-93-C-0055U.S. Navy - Naval Training Systems Center Contract N61339-93-C-0083U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-92-J-4005U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-93-1-119

Sensory Communication

Contains table of contents for Section 2 and reports on five research projects.National Institutes of Health Contract 2 R01 DC00117National Institutes of Health Contract 1 R01 DC02032National Institutes of Health Contract 2 P01 DC00361National Institutes of Health Contract N01 DC22402National Institutes of Health Grant R01-DC001001National Institutes of Health Grant R01-DC00270National Institutes of Health Grant 5 R01 DC00126National Institutes of Health Grant R29-DC00625U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-88-K-0604U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-91-J-1454U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-92-J-1814U.S. Navy - Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division Contract N61339-94-C-0087U.S. Navy - Naval Air Warfare Center Training System Division Contract N61339-93-C-0055U.S. Navy - Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-93-1-1198National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Ames Research Center Grant NCC 2-77

The tundra phenology database: More than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change

Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150,434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1 to 26 years. Here we describe the full dataset to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses, and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some datasets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215)