Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets

We investigate behavior in laboratory asset markets in which traders are sometimes informed of asset values. We test whether traders overreact to uninformative trades, mistakenly inferring in-formation from them. The existence of price "mirages," caused by such mistakes, might ex-plain why asset prices seem to be excessively volatile

Separate cortical stages in amodal completion revealed by functional magnetic resonance adaptation : research article

Background Objects in our environment are often partly occluded, yet we effortlessly perceive them as whole and complete. This phenomenon is called visual amodal completion. Psychophysical investigations suggest that the process of completion starts from a representation of the (visible) physical features of the stimulus and ends with a completed representation of the stimulus. The goal of our study was to investigate both stages of the completion process by localizing both brain regions involved in processing the physical features of the stimulus as well as brain regions representing the completed stimulus. Results Using fMRI adaptation we reveal clearly distinct regions in the visual cortex of humans involved in processing of amodal completion: early visual cortex - presumably V1 - processes the local contour information of the stimulus whereas regions in the inferior temporal cortex represent the completed shape. Furthermore, our data suggest that at the level of inferior temporal cortex information regarding the original local contour information is not preserved but replaced by the representation of the amodally completed percept. Conclusion These findings provide neuroimaging evidence for a multiple step theory of amodal completion and further insights into the neuronal correlates of visual perception

Vigorous atmospheric motion in the red supergiant star Antares

Red supergiant stars represent a late stage of the evolution of stars more massive than about nine solar masses, in which they develop complex, multi-component atmospheres. Bright spots have been detected in the atmosphere of red supergiants using interferometric imaging. Above the photosphere of a red supergiant, the molecular outer atmosphere extends up to about two stellar radii. Furthermore, the hot chromosphere (5,000 to 8,000 kelvin) and cool gas (less than 3,500 kelvin) of a red supergiant coexist at about three stellar radii. The dynamics of such complex atmospheres has been probed by ultraviolet and optical spectroscopy. The most direct approach, however, is to measure the velocity of gas at each position over the image of stars as in observations of the Sun. Here we report the mapping of the velocity field over the surface and atmosphere of the nearby red supergiant Antares. The two-dimensional velocity field map obtained from our near-infrared spectro-interferometric imaging reveals vigorous upwelling and downdrafting motions of several huge gas clumps at velocities ranging from about -20 to +20 kilometres per second in the atmosphere, which extends out to about 1.7 stellar radii. Convection alone cannot explain the observed turbulent motions and atmospheric extension, suggesting that an unidentified process is operating in the extended atmosphere.Comment: 27 pages, 8 figures, published in Natur

Clumpy dust clouds and extended atmosphere of the AGB star W Hya revealed with VLT/SPHERE-ZIMPOL and VLTI/AMBER II. Time variations between pre-maximum and minimum light

Our recent visible polarimetric images of the well-studied AGB star W Hya taken at pre-maximum light (phase 0.92) with VLT/SPHERE-ZIMPOL have revealed clumpy dust clouds close to the star at ~2 Rstar. We present second-epoch SPHERE-ZIMPOL observations of W Hya at minimum light (phase 0.54) in the continuum (645, 748, and 820 nm), in the Halpha line (656.3 nm), and in the TiO band (717 nm) as well as high-spectral resolution long-baseline interferometric observations in 2.3 micron CO lines with the AMBER instrument at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). The high-spatial resolution polarimetric images have allowed us to detect clear time variations in the clumpy dust clouds as close as 34--50~mas (1.4--2.0 Rstar) to the star. We detected the formation of a new dust cloud and the disappearance of one of the dust clouds detected at the first epoch. The Halpha and TiO emission extends to ~150 mas (~6 Rstar), and the Halpha images reveal time variations. The degree of linear polarization is higher at minimum light (13--18%) than that at pre-maximum light. The power-law-type limb-darkened disk fit to the AMBER data in the continuum results in a limb-darkened disk diameter of 49.1+/-1.5 mas and a limb-darkening parameter of 1.16+/-0.49, indicating that the atmosphere is more extended with weaker limb-darkening compared to pre-maximum light. Our Monte Carlo radiative transfer modeling suggests the predominance of small (0.1 micron) grains of Al2O3, Mg2SiO4, and MgSiO3 at minimum light, in marked contrast to the predominance of large (0.5 micron) grains at pre-maximum light. The variability phase dependence of the grain size implies that small grains might just have started to form at minimum light in the wake of a shock, while the pre-maximum light phase might have corresponded to the phase of efficient grain growth.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Analysis of GRACE range-rate residuals with focus on KBR instrument system noise

We investigate the post-fit range-rate residuals after the gravity field parameter estimation from the inter-satellite ranging data of the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Of particular interest is the high-frequency spectrum (f gt 20 MHz) which is dominated by the microwave ranging system noise. Such analysis is carried out to understand the yet unsolved discrepancy between the predicted baseline errors and the observed ones. The analysis consists of two parts. First, we present the effects in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNRs) of the k-band ranging system. The SNRs are also affected by the moon intrusions into the star cameras field of view and magnetic torque rod currents in addition to the effects presented by Harvey et al. [2016]. Second, we analyze the range-rate residuals to study the effects of the KBR system noise. The range-rate residuals are dominated by the non-stationary errors in the high-frequency observations. These high-frequency errors in the range-rate residuals are found to be dependent on the temperature and effects of sun intrusion into the star cameras field of view reflected in the SNRs of the K-band phase observations

Bispectrum speckle interferometry of the massive protostellar outflow source IRAS 23151+5912

We present bispectrum speckle interferometry of the massive protostellar object IRAS 23151+5912 in the near-infrared K' band. The reconstructed image shows the diffuse nebulosity north-east of two point-like sources in unprecedented detail. The comparison of our near-infrared image with mm continuum and CO molecular line maps shows that the brighter of the two point sources lies near the center of the mm peak, indicating that it is a high-mass protostar. The nebulosity coincides with the blue-shifted molecular outflow component. The most prominent feature in the nebulosity is a bow-shock-like arc. We assume that this feature is associated with a precessing jet which has created an inward-pointed cone in the swept-up material. We present numerical jet simulations that reproduce this and several other features observed in our speckle image of the nebulosity. Our data also reveal a linear structure connecting the central point source to the extended diffuse nebulosity. This feature may represent the innermost part of a jet that drives the strong molecular outflow (PA ~80 degr) from IRAS 23151+5912. With the aid of radiative transfer calculations, we demonstrate that, in general, the observed inner structures of the circumstellar material surrounding high-mass stars are strongly influenced by the orientation and symmetry of the bipolar cavity.Comment: accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics; preprints with high-resolution images can be obtained from http://www.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/staff/tpreibis/iras23151.htm

Trust among Strangers

The trust building process is basic to social science. We investigate it in a laboratory setting using a novel multi-stage trust game where social gains are achieved if players trust each other in each stage. And in each stage, players have an opportunity to appropriate these gains or be trustworthy by sharing them. Players are strangers because they do not know the identity of others and they will not play them again in the future. Thus there is no prospect of future interaction to induce trusting behavior. So, we study the trust building process where there is little scope for social relations and networks. Standard game theory, which assumes all players are opportunistic, untrustworthy, and should have zero trust for others is used to construct a null hypothesis. We test whether people are trusting or trustworthy and examine how inferring the intentions of those who trust affects trustworthiness. We also investigate the effect of stake on trust, and study the evolution of trust. Results show subjects exhibit some degree of trusting behavior though a majority of them are not trustworthy and claim the entire social gain. Players are more reluctant to trust in later stages than in earlier ones and are more trustworthy if they are certain of the trustee’s intention. Surprisingly, subjects are more trusting and trustworthy when the stake size increases. Finally, we find the sub- population who invests in initiating the trust building process modifies its trusting behavior based on the relative fitness of trust.Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics

HARDI: A high angular resolution deployable interferometer for space

We describe here a proposed orbiting interferometer covering the UV, visible, and near-IR spectral ranges. With a 6-m baseline and a collecting area equivalent to about a 1.4 m diameter full aperture, this instrument will offer significant improvements in resolution over the Hubble Space Telescope, and complement the new generation of ground-based interferometers with much better limiting magnitude and spectral coverage. On the other hand, it has been designed as a considerably less ambitious project (one launch) than other current proposals. We believe that this concept is feasible given current technological capabilities, yet would serve to prove the concepts necessary for the much larger systems that must eventually be flown. The interferometer is of the Fizeau type. It therefore has a much larger field (for guiding) better UV throughout (only 4 surfaces) than phased arrays. Optimize aperture configurations and ideas for the cophasing and coalignment system are presented. The interferometer would be placed in a geosynchronous or sunsynchronous orbit to minimize thermal and mechanical disturbances and to maximize observing efficiency