An Asymmetric Cone Model for Halo Coronal Mass Ejections

Due to projection effects, coronagraphic observations cannot uniquely determine parameters relevant to the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, such as the true propagation speed, width, or source location. The Cone Model for Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) has been studied in this respect and it could be used to obtain these parameters. There are evidences that some CMEs initiate from a flux-rope topology. It seems that these CMEs should be elongated along the flux-rope axis and the cross section of the cone base should be rather elliptical than circular. In the present paper we applied an asymmetric cone model to get the real space parameters of frontsided halo CMEs (HCMEs) recorded by SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs in 2002. The cone model parameters are generated through a fitting procedure to the projected speeds measured at different position angles on the plane of the sky. We consider models with the apex of the cone located at the center and surface of the Sun. The results are compared to the standard symmetric cone model

A Modeling Study Evaluating the Thermal-Hydrological Conditions In and Near Waste Emplacement Tunnels At Yucca Mountain

In heated tunnels such as those designated for emplacement of radioactive waste at the proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, temperature gradients cause natural convection processes that may significantly influence the moisture conditions in the tunnels and in the surrounding fractured rock. Large-scale convection cells in the heated tunnels would provide an effective mechanism for turbulent mixing and axial transport of vapor generated from evaporation of pore water in the nearby formation. As a result, vapor would be transported from the elevated-temperature sections of the tunnels into cool end sections (where no waste is emplaced), would condense there, and subsequently drain into underlying rock units. To study these processes, we have developed a new simulation method that couples existing tools for simulating thermal-hydrological (TH) conditions in the fractured formation with a module that approximates turbulent natural convection in heated emplacement drifts. The new method simultaneously handles (1) the flow and energy transport processes in the fractured rock, (2) the flow and energy transport processes in the cavity, and (3) the heat and mass exchange at the rock-cavity interface. An application is presented studying the future TH conditions within and near a representative waste emplacement tunnel at Yucca Mountain. Particular focus is on the potential for condensation along the emplacement section, a possible result of heat output differences between individual waste packages

Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections: A Statistically Determined Flare Flux-CME Mass Correlation

In an effort to examine the relationship between flare flux and corresponding CME mass, we temporally and spatially correlate all X-ray flares and CMEs in the LASCO and GOES archives from 1996 to 2006. We cross-reference 6,733 CMEs having well-measured masses against 12,050 X-ray flares having position information as determined from their optical counterparts. For a given flare, we search in time for CMEs which occur 10-80 minutes afterward, and we further require the flare and CME to occur within +/-45 degrees in position angle on the solar disk. There are 826 CME/flare pairs which fit these criteria. Comparing the flare fluxes with CME masses of these paired events, we find CME mass increases with flare flux, following an approximately log-linear, broken relationship: in the limit of lower flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.68*log(flare flux), and in the limit of higher flare fluxes, log(CME mass)~0.33*log(flare flux). We show that this broken power-law, and in particular the flatter slope at higher flare fluxes, may be due to an observational bias against CMEs associated with the most energetic flares: halo CMEs. Correcting for this bias yields a single power-law relationship of the form log(CME mass)~0.70*log(flare flux). This function describes the relationship between CME mass and flare flux over at least 3 dex in flare flux, from ~10^-7 to 10^-4 W m^-2.Comment: 28 pages, 16 figures, accepted to Solar Physic

Searching for solar siblings in APOGEE and Gaia DR2 with N-body simulations

Computational astrophysic

Gastric cancer and Helicobacter pylori: a combined analysis of 12 case control studies nested within prospective cohorts

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the association between Helicobacter pylori and incidence of gastric cancer is unclear. H pylori infection and the circulating antibody response can be lost with development of cancer; thus retrospective studies are subject to bias resulting from classifi- cation of cases as H pylori negative when they were infected in the past. AIMS: To combine data from all case control studies nested within prospective cohorts to assess more reliably the relative risk of gastric cancer associated with H pylori infection.To investigate variation in relative risk by age, sex, cancer type and subsite, and interval between blood sampling and cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Studies were eligible if blood samples for H pylori serology were collected before diagnosis of gastric cancer in cases. Identified published studies and two unpublished studies were included. Individual subject data were obtained for each. Matched odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated for the association between H pylori and gastric cancer. RESULTS: Twelve studies with 1228 gastric cancer cases were considered. The association with H pylori was restricted to noncardia cancers (OR 3.0; 95% CI 2.3–3.8) and was stronger when blood samples for H pylori serology were collected 10+ years before cancer diagnosis (5.9; 3.4–10.3). H pylori infection was not associated with an altered overall risk of cardia cancer (1.0; 0.7–1.4). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that 5.9 is the best estimate of the relative risk of non-cardia cancer associated with H pylori infection and that H pylori does not increase the risk of cardia cancer. They also support the idea that when H pylori status is assessed close to cancer diagnosis, the magnitude of the non-cardia association may be underestimated

Dynamics of Coronal Bright Points as seen by Sun Watcher using Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP), Atmospheric Imaging Assembly AIA), and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI)

The \textit{Sun Watcher using Active Pixel system detector and Image Processing}(SWAP) on board the \textit{PRoject for OnBoard Autonomy\todash 2} (PROBA\todash 2) spacecraft provides images of the solar corona in EUV channel centered at 174 \AA. These data, together with \textit{Atmospheric Imaging Assembly} (AIA) and the \textit{Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager} (HMI) on board \textit{Solar Dynamics Observatory} (SDO), are used to study the dynamics of coronal bright points. The evolution of the magnetic polarities and associated changes in morphology are studied using magnetograms and multi-wavelength imaging. The morphology of the bright points seen in low-resolution SWAP images and high-resolution AIA images show different structures, whereas the intensity variations with time show similar trends in both SWAP 174 and AIA 171 channels. We observe that bright points are seen in EUV channels corresponding to a magnetic-flux of the order of $10^{18}$ Mx. We find that there exists a good correlation between total emission from the bright point in several UV\todash EUV channels and total unsigned photospheric magnetic flux above certain thresholds. The bright points also show periodic brightenings and we have attempted to find the oscillation periods in bright points and their connection to magnetic flux changes. The observed periods are generally long (10\todash 25 minutes) and there is an indication that the intensity oscillations may be generated by repeated magnetic reconnection

Magnetic Flux of EUV Arcade and Dimming Regions as a Relevant Parameter for Early Diagnostics of Solar Eruptions - Sources of Non-Recurrent Geomagnetic Storms and Forbush Decreases

This study aims at the early diagnostics of geoeffectiveness of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from quantitative parameters of the accompanying EUV dimming and arcade events. We study events of the 23th solar cycle, in which major non-recurrent geomagnetic storms (GMS) with Dst <-100 nT are sufficiently reliably identified with their solar sources in the central part of the disk. Using the SOHO/EIT 195 A images and MDI magnetograms, we select significant dimming and arcade areas and calculate summarized unsigned magnetic fluxes in these regions at the photospheric level. The high relevance of this eruption parameter is displayed by its pronounced correlation with the Forbush decrease (FD) magnitude, which, unlike GMSs, does not depend on the sign of the Bz component but is determined by global characteristics of ICMEs. Correlations with the same magnetic flux in the solar source region are found for the GMS intensity (at the first step, without taking into account factors determining the Bz component near the Earth), as well as for the temporal intervals between the solar eruptions and the GMS onset and peak times. The larger the magnetic flux, the stronger the FD and GMS intensities are and the shorter the ICME transit time is. The revealed correlations indicate that the main quantitative characteristics of major non-recurrent space weather disturbances are largely determined by measurable parameters of solar eruptions, in particular, by the magnetic flux in dimming areas and arcades, and can be tentatively estimated in advance with a lead time from 1 to 4 days. For GMS intensity, the revealed dependencies allow one to estimate a possible value, which can be expected if the Bz component is negative.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Optimised mixing and flow resistance during shear flow over a rib roughened boundary

A series of numerical investigations has been performed to study the effect of lower boundary roughness on turbulent flow in a two-dimensional channel. The roughness spacing to height ratio, w/k, has been investigated over the range 0.12 to 402 by varying the horizontal rib spacing. The square roughness elements each have a cross-sectional area of (0.05 H)2, where H is the full channel height. The Reynolds number, Reτ is fixed based on the value of the imposed pressure gradient, dp/dx, and is in the range 6.3 × 103 − 4.5 × 104. A Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) based turbulence modelling approach is adopted using a commercial CFD code, ANSYS-CFX 14.0. Measurements of eddy viscosity and friction factor have been made over this range to establish the optimum spacings to produce maximum turbulence enhancement, mixing and resistance to flow. These occur when w/k is approximately 7. It is found that this value is only weakly dependent on Reynolds number, and the decay rate of turbulence enhancement as a function of w/k ratio beyond this optimum spacing is slow. The implications for heat transfer design optimisation and particle transport are considered

Evaluation of turbulent dissipation rate retrievals from Doppler Cloud Radar

Turbulent dissipation rate retrievals from cloud radar Doppler velocity measurements are evaluated using independent, in situ observations in Arctic stratocumulus clouds. In situ validation data sets of dissipation rate are derived using sonic anemometer measurements from a tethered balloon and high frequency pressure variation observations from a research aircraft, both flown in proximity to stationary, ground-based radars. Modest biases are found among the data sets in particularly low- or high-turbulence regimes, but in general the radar-retrieved values correspond well with the in situ measurements. Root mean square differences are typically a factor of 4-6 relative to any given magnitude of dissipation rate. These differences are no larger than those found when comparing dissipation rates computed from tetheredballoon and meteorological tower-mounted sonic anemometer measurements made at spatial distances of a few hundred meters. Temporal lag analyses suggest that approximately half of the observed differences are due to spatial sampling considerations, such that the anticipated radar-based retrieval uncertainty is on the order of a factor of 2-3. Moreover, radar retrievals are clearly able to capture the vertical dissipation rate structure observed by the in situ sensors, while offering substantially more information on the time variability of turbulence profiles. Together these evaluations indicate that radar-based retrievals can, at a minimum, be used to determine the vertical structure of turbulence in Arctic stratocumulus clouds