Building on Julian Tudor Hart's example of anticipatory care

The prevention and delay of chronic disease is an increasing priority in all advanced health-care systems, but sustainable, effective and equitable approaches remain elusive. In a famous pioneering example in the UK, Julian Tudor Hart combined reactive and anticipatory care within routine consultations in primary medical care, while applying a population approach to delivery and audit. This approach combined the structural advantages of UK general practice, including universal coverage and the absence of user fees, with his long-term commitment to individual patients, and was associated with a 28% reduction in premature mortality over a 25-year period. The more recent, and comprehensively evaluated Scottish National Health Service demonstration project, ‘Have a Heart Paisley’, took a different approach to cardiovascular prevention and health improvement, using population screening for ascertainment, health coaches and referral to specific health improvement programmes for diet, smoking and exercise. We draw from both examples to construct a conceptual framework for anticipatory care, based on active ingredients, programme pathways and whole system approaches. While the strengths of a family practice approach are coverage, continuity, co-ordination and longterm relationships, the larger health improvement programme offered additional resources and expertise. As theory and evidence accrue, the challenge is to combine the strengths of primary medical care and health improvement, in integrated, sustainable systems of anticipatory care, addressing the heterogeneity of individual needs and solutions, while achieving high levels of coverage, continuity, co-ordination and outcome

Living and health conditions of Palestinian refugees in an unofficial camp in the Lebanon: a cross-sectional survey

<b>Objective</b> To determine the living conditions and self-reported health of Palestinian refugees living in an unofficial camp in Lebanon.<p></p> <b>Design</b> Cross-sectional survey.<p></p> <b>Setting</b> Gaza displacement centre, Beirut, Lebanon.<p></p> <b>Participants</b> 97 Households and 437 residents.<p></p> <b>Main outcome measures</b> Household characteristics, including the number of rooms per household; access to outside air; the presence of mould and dampness. Resident characteristics, including age; educational attainment; and chronic conditions.<p></p> <b>Results</b> Half of the households surveyed had only one room; 44% had three or more people per room; 11% had no external ventilation; 49% had no heating; 54% had mould and dampness. The use of wood or charcoal for heating was associated with an increase in mould and dampness (p = 0.015). 135 Members of the population (31%) were aged under 15 years; 130 (30%) had a chronic condition. Logistic regression results showed that overcrowding (odds ratio (OR) 3.26) and a member of the household living in Gaza buildings for more than 15 years (OR 0.48) were significantly associated with children under 15 years. Age over 45 years (OR 5.32), a member of the household in full-time employment (OR 0.58) and a member of the household living in Gaza buildings for more than 15 years (OR 1.71) were significantly associated with chronic disease.<p></p> <b>Conclusion</b> This study demonstrates the poor conditions under which Palestinian refugees in unofficial camps live, resembling the slum housing of the United Kingdom in the last century. In the absence of routine data collection, research may be the only way to obtain such data for future public and environmental health planning

Nuclear DVCS at small-x using the color dipole phenomenology

Using the high energy color dipole formalism, we study the coherent and incoherent nuclear DVCS process in the small-x regime. We consider simple models for the elementary dipole-hadron scattering amplitude that captures main features of the dependence on atomic number A, on energy and on momentum transfer t. Using the obtained amplitudes we make predictions for the nuclear DVCS cross section at photon level in the collider kinematics.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures. Version to be published in European Physical Journal

The Polygenic and Monogenic Basis of Blood Traits and Diseases

Blood cells play essential roles in human health, underpinning physiological processes such as immunity, oxygen transport, and clotting, which when perturbed cause a significant global health burden. Here we integrate data from UK Biobank and a large-scale international collaborative effort, including data for 563,085 European ancestry participants, and discover 5,106 new genetic variants independently associated with 29 blood cell phenotypes covering a range of variation impacting hematopoiesis. We holistically characterize the genetic architecture of hematopoiesis, assess the relevance of the omnigenic model to blood cell phenotypes, delineate relevant hematopoietic cell states influenced by regulatory genetic variants and gene networks, identify novel splice-altering variants mediating the associations, and assess the polygenic prediction potential for blood traits and clinical disorders at the interface of complex and Mendelian genetics. These results show the power of large-scale blood cell trait GWAS to interrogate clinically meaningful variants across a wide allelic spectrum of human variation. Analysis of blood cell traits in the UK Biobank and other cohorts illuminates the full genetic architecture of hematopoietic phenotypes, with evidence supporting the omnigenic model for complex traits and linking polygenic burden with monogenic blood diseases

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (VT) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P < 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P < 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high VT and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome

Epidemiology, practice of ventilation and outcome for patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications: LAS VEGAS - An observational study in 29 countries

BACKGROUND Limited information exists about the epidemiology and outcome of surgical patients at increased risk of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs), and how intraoperative ventilation was managed in these patients. OBJECTIVES To determine the incidence of surgical patients at increased risk of PPCs, and to compare the intraoperative ventilation management and postoperative outcomes with patients at low risk of PPCs. DESIGN This was a prospective international 1-week observational study using the ‘Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia risk score’ (ARISCAT score) for PPC for risk stratification. PATIENTS AND SETTING Adult patients requiring intraoperative ventilation during general anaesthesia for surgery in 146 hospitals across 29 countries. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was the incidence of patients at increased risk of PPCs based on the ARISCAT score. Secondary outcomes included intraoperative ventilatory management and clinical outcomes. RESULTS A total of 9864 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The incidence of patients at increased risk was 28.4%. The most frequently chosen tidal volume (V T) size was 500 ml, or 7 to 9 ml kg−1 predicted body weight, slightly lower in patients at increased risk of PPCs. Levels of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) were slightly higher in patients at increased risk of PPCs, with 14.3% receiving more than 5 cmH2O PEEP compared with 7.6% in patients at low risk of PPCs (P ˂ 0.001). Patients with a predicted preoperative increased risk of PPCs developed PPCs more frequently: 19 versus 7%, relative risk (RR) 3.16 (95% confidence interval 2.76 to 3.61), P ˂ 0.001) and had longer hospital stays. The only ventilatory factor associated with the occurrence of PPCs was the peak pressure. CONCLUSION The incidence of patients with a predicted increased risk of PPCs is high. A large proportion of patients receive high V T and low PEEP levels. PPCs occur frequently in patients at increased risk, with worse clinical outcome.</p

Effects of rare kidney diseases on kidney failure: a longitudinal analysis of the UK National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) cohort

Background Individuals with rare kidney diseases account for 5–10% of people with chronic kidney disease, but constitute more than 25% of patients receiving kidney replacement therapy. The National Registry of Rare Kidney Diseases (RaDaR) gathers longitudinal data from patients with these conditions, which we used to study disease progression and outcomes of death and kidney failure. Methods People aged 0–96 years living with 28 types of rare kidney diseases were recruited from 108 UK renal care facilities. The primary outcomes were cumulative incidence of mortality and kidney failure in individuals with rare kidney diseases, which were calculated and compared with that of unselected patients with chronic kidney disease. Cumulative incidence and Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were calculated for the following outcomes: median age at kidney failure; median age at death; time from start of dialysis to death; and time from diagnosis to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds, allowing calculation of time from last eGFR of 75 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or more to first eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (the therapeutic trial window). Findings Between Jan 18, 2010, and July 25, 2022, 27 285 participants were recruited to RaDaR. Median follow-up time from diagnosis was 9·6 years (IQR 5·9–16·7). RaDaR participants had significantly higher 5-year cumulative incidence of kidney failure than 2·81 million UK patients with all-cause chronic kidney disease (28% vs 1%; p<0·0001), but better survival rates (standardised mortality ratio 0·42 [95% CI 0·32–0·52]; p<0·0001). Median age at kidney failure, median age at death, time from start of dialysis to death, time from diagnosis to eGFR thresholds, and therapeutic trial window all varied substantially between rare diseases. Interpretation Patients with rare kidney diseases differ from the general population of individuals with chronic kidney disease: they have higher 5-year rates of kidney failure but higher survival than other patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3–5, and so are over-represented in the cohort of patients requiring kidney replacement therapy. Addressing unmet therapeutic need for patients with rare kidney diseases could have a large beneficial effect on long-term kidney replacement therapy demand. Funding RaDaR is funded by the Medical Research Council, Kidney Research UK, Kidney Care UK, and the Polycystic Kidney Disease Charity