Deep Learning Based Forecasting of COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England:A Comparative Analysis

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was essential to accurately forecast the demand for hospitalisation resources to achieve an effective allocation of healthcare resources. This paper explores the potential of various Deep Learning (DL) models, namely basic Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Bidirectional RNNs, and Sequence-to-Sequence architectures with the inclusion of attention mechanisms, to forecast the demand for hospitalisation resources (mechanical ventilators) in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. The implementation of simulated annealing (SA) as a hyperparameter tuning method produced certain model structures and good results in terms of prediction accuracy. Our findings show that the LSTM-based models (LSTM_SA), achieved the lowest mean average error (MAE), outperforming other architectures used in this study. The results of this study show the potential of DL models to forecast the demand for resources and could help inform the distribution of hospitalisation resources in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p

Apps and wearables for monitoring physical activity and sedentary behaviour: a qualitative systematic review protocol on barriers and facilitators

International audienceObjective: Monitoring of physical activity and sedentary behaviours by mobile phone applications (apps) and wearable technology (wearables) may improve these health behaviours. This systematic review aims to synthesise the qualitative literature on the barriers and facilitators of using apps and wearables for monitoring physical activity and/or sedentary behaviour in adults.Methods: This review protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42017070194). Scientific databases including CINAHL Complete, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Library and Scopus will be searched for relevant studies published from 1 January 2012 to the date the searches are conducted. Studies will be included if they incorporated adults who used an app or wearable for monitoring physical activity and/or sedentary behaviour; explored the barriers and/or facilitators of using an app and/or wearable; and were published in English. Following duplicate screening of titles and abstracts, full texts of potentially eligible papers will be screened to identify studies using qualitative approaches to explore barriers and facilitators of using apps and/or wearables for monitoring physical activity and/or sedentary behaviour. Discrepancies will be resolved through consensus or by consulting a third screener. Relevant excerpts (quotes and text) from the included papers will be extracted and analysed thematically. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Qualitative Research Checklist will be used to appraise included studies.Conclusion: The results of this work will be useful for those intending to monitor physical activity and/or sedentary behaviour using these technologies

Clinical information quality of digital health technologies: protocol for an international eDelphi study

INTRODUCTION: Digital health technologies (DHTs) such as electronic health records, clinical decision support systems and electronic prescribing systems are widely used in healthcare. While adoption of DHTs can improve healthcare delivery, information quality (IQ) problems associated with DHTs can compromise quality and safety of care. The clinical information quality (CLIQ) framework for digital health is a novel approach to assessing the quality of clinical information from DHTs. This study aims to appraise the CLIQ framework by exploring clinicians’ perspectives on the relevance, definition and assessment of IQ dimensions as defined in the framework. This study will adapt the CLIQ framework to the needs of clinical information users—the clinicians. The contextualised CLIQ framework will offer a pragmatic approach to assessing clinical information from DHTs and may help to forestall IQ problems that can compromise quality and safety of care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The electronic Delphi (eDelphi) approach will be used to engage a heterogeneous group of clinicians with patient-facing and/or information governance roles recruited through purposive and snowball sampling techniques. A semi-structured online questionnaire will be used to explore clinicians’ perspectives on relevance, definition and assessment of IQ dimensions in the CLIQ framework. Survey responses on the relevance of dimensions will be summarised using descriptive statistics to inform decisions on retention of dimensions and termination of the study, based on pre-specified rules. Analysis of the free-text responses will be used to revise definition and assessment of dimensions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Imperial College Research Governance and Integrity Team (Imperial College Research Ethics Committee (ICREC) Reference number: 20IC6396). The results of the study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at scientific conferences

Use of Online Dietary Recalls among Older UK Adults:A Feasibility Study of an Online Dietary Assessment Tool

This study examined the feasibility of including myfood24, an online 24-hour dietary recall tool, in a cohort studies of older adults. Participants (n = 319) were recruited during follow-up visits for the CHARIOT-Pro Sub-study, a prospective study of cognitively healthy adults aged 60–85 years at baseline. Email invitations were sent over three consecutive months, with weekly reminders. Multivariable regression models were applied to examine the number of recalls completed in relation to technology readiness (TR) scores and demographic characteristics. Ninety-four percent of people agreed to participate. Among participants, 67% completed at least one recall, and 48% completed two or more. Participants who completed multiple recalls reported higher self-confidence with technology and received a higher TR score than those who did not complete any recalls. A one-point higher TR score was associated with higher odds of completing three recalls compared to zero recalls (OR 1.70, 95% CI 0.96–3.01); this association was further attenuated after adjustment for demographic and other TR-related covariates (OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.63–2.88). This study demonstrates reasonable participation rates for a single myfood24 recall among older adults participating in a cohort study but suggests that further support may be required to obtain multiple recalls in this population

Information Quality Frameworks for Digital Health Technologies:Systematic Review

Background: Digital health technologies (DHTs) generate a large volume of information used in health care for administrative, educational, research, and clinical purposes. The clinical use of digital information for diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic purposes has multiple patient safety problems, some of which result from poor information quality (IQ). Objective: This systematic review aims to synthesize an IQ framework that could be used to evaluate the extent to which digital health information is fit for clinical purposes. Methods: The review was conducted according to the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines. We searched Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, Maternity and Infant Care, PsycINFO, Global Health, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, Scopus, and HMIC (the Health Management Information Consortium) from inception until October 2019. Multidimensional IQ frameworks for assessing DHTs used in the clinical context by health care professionals were included. A thematic synthesis approach was used to synthesize the Clinical Information Quality (CLIQ) framework for digital health. Results: We identified 10 existing IQ frameworks from which we developed the CLIQ framework for digital health with 13 unique dimensions: accessibility, completeness, portability, security, timeliness, accuracy, interpretability, plausibility, provenance, relevance, conformance, consistency, and maintainability, which were categorized into 3 meaningful categories: availability, informativeness, and usability. Conclusions: This systematic review highlights the importance of the IQ of DHTs and its relevance to patient safety. The CLIQ framework for digital health will be useful in evaluating and conceptualizing IQ issues associated with digital health, thus forestalling potential patient safety problems. Trial Registration: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42018097142; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=97142 International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID): RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-02472

Offline eLearning for undergraduates in health professions: A systematic review of the impact on knowledge, skills, attitudes and satisfaction

Background: The world is short of 7.2 million health–care workers and this figure is growing. The shortage of teachers is even greater, which limits traditional education modes. eLearning may help overcome this training need. Offline eLearning is useful in remote and resource–limited settings with poor internet access. To inform investments in offline eLearning, we need to establish its effectiveness in terms of gaining knowledge and skills, students’ satisfaction and attitudes towards eLearning. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of offline eLearning for students enrolled in undergraduate, health–related university degrees. We included randomised controlled trials that compared offline eLearning to traditional learning or an alternative eLearning method. We searched the major bibliographic databases in August 2013 to identify articles that focused primarily on students’ knowledge, skills, satisfaction and attitudes toward eLearning, and health economic information and adverse effects as secondary outcomes. We also searched reference lists of relevant studies. Two reviewers independently extracted data from the included studies. We synthesized the findings using a thematic summary approach. Findings: Forty–nine studies, including 4955 students enrolled in undergraduate medical, dentistry, nursing, psychology, or physical therapy studies, met the inclusion criteria. Eleven of the 33 studies testing knowledge gains found significantly higher gains in the eLearning intervention groups compared to traditional learning, whereas 21 did not detect significant differences or found mixed results. One study did not test for differences. Eight studies detected significantly higher skill gains in the eLearning intervention groups, whilst the other 5 testing skill gains did not detect differences between groups. No study found offline eLearning as inferior. Generally no differences in attitudes or preference of eLearning over traditional learning were observed. No clear trends were found in the comparison of different modes of eLearning. Most of the studies were small and subject to several biases. Conclusions: Our results suggest that offline eLearning is equivalent and possibly superior to traditional learning regarding knowledge, skills, attitudes and satisfaction. Although a robust conclusion cannot be drawn due to variable quality of the evidence, these results justify further investment into offline eLearning to address the global health care workforce shortage

Reproductive factors and risk of mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition; a cohort study

Abstract Background Reproductive events are associated with important physiologic changes, yet little is known about how reproductive factors influence long-term health in women. Our objective was to assess the relation of reproductive characteristics with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. Methods The analysis was performed within the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition prospective cohort study, which enrolled >500,000 women and men from 1992 to 2000, who were residing in a given town/geographic area in 10 European countries. The current analysis included 322,972 eligible women aged 25–70 years with 99 % complete follow-up for vital status. We assessed reproductive characteristics reported at the study baseline including parity, age at the first birth, breastfeeding, infertility, oral contraceptive use, age at menarche and menopause, total ovulatory years, and history of oophorectomy/hysterectomy. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for menopausal status, body mass index, physical activity, education level, and smoking status/intensity and duration. Results During a mean follow-up of 12.9 years, 14,383 deaths occurred. The HR (95 % CI) for risk of all-cause mortality was lower in parous versus nulliparous women (0.80; 0.76–0.84), in women who had ever versus never breastfed (0.92; 0.87–0.97), in ever versus never users of oral contraceptives (among non-smokers; 0.90; 0.86–0.95), and in women reporting a later age at menarche (≥15 years versus <12; 0.90; 0.85–0.96; P for trend = 0.038). Conclusions Childbirth, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use, and a later age at menarche were associated with better health outcomes. These findings may contribute to the development of improved strategies to promote better long-term health in women

Dietary intakes and food sources of phenolic acids in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study

Phenolic acids are secondary plant metabolites that may have protective effects against oxidative stress, inflammation and cancer in experimental studies. To date, limited data exist on the quantitative intake of phenolic acids. We estimated the intake of phenolic acids and their food sources and associated lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Phenolic acid intakes were estimated for 36 037 subjects aged 35-74 years and recruited between 1992 and 2000 in ten European countries using a standardised 24 h recall software (EPIC-Soft), and their food sources were identified. Dietary data were linked to the Phenol-Explorer database, which contains data on forty-five aglycones of phenolic acids in 452 foods. The total phenolic acid intake was highest in Aarhus, Denmark (1265·5 and 980·7 mg/d in men and women, respectively), while the intake was lowest in Greece (213·2 and 158·6 mg/d in men and women, respectively). The hydroxycinnamic acid subclass was the main contributor to the total phenolic acid intake, accounting for 84·6-95·3 % of intake depending on the region. Hydroxybenzoic acids accounted for 4·6-14·4 %, hydroxyphenylacetic acids 0·1-0·8 % and hydroxyphenylpropanoic acids ≤ 0·1 % for all regions. An increasing south-north gradient of consumption was also found. Coffee was the main food source of phenolic acids and accounted for 55·3-80·7 % of the total phenolic acid intake, followed by fruits, vegetables and nuts. A high heterogeneity in phenolic acid intake was observed across the European countries in the EPIC cohort, which will allow further exploration of the associations with the risk of diseases

Alcohol attributable burden of incidence of cancer in eight European countries based on results from prospective cohort study

Objective To compute the burden of cancer attributable to current and former alcohol consumption in eight European countries based on direct relative risk estimates from a cohort study

Reproductive factors and risk of mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition; a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Reproductive events are associated with important physiologic changes, yet little is known about how reproductive factors influence long-term health in women. Our objective was to assess the relation of reproductive characteristics with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk. METHODS: The analysis was performed within the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition prospective cohort study, which enrolled >500,000 women and men from 1992 to 2000, who were residing in a given town/geographic area in 10 European countries. The current analysis included 322,972 eligible women aged 25-70 years with 99 % complete follow-up for vital status. We assessed reproductive characteristics reported at the study baseline including parity, age at the first birth, breastfeeding, infertility, oral contraceptive use, age at menarche and menopause, total ovulatory years, and history of oophorectomy/hysterectomy. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for menopausal status, body mass index, physical activity, education level, and smoking status/intensity and duration. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 12.9 years, 14,383 deaths occurred. The HR (95 % CI) for risk of all-cause mortality was lower in parous versus nulliparous women (0.80; 0.76-0.84), in women who had ever versus never breastfed (0.92; 0.87-0.97), in ever versus never users of oral contraceptives (among non-smokers; 0.90; 0.86-0.95), and in women reporting a later age at menarche (≥15 years versus <12; 0.90; 0.85-0.96; P for trend = 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: Childbirth, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use, and a later age at menarche were associated with better health outcomes. These findings may contribute to the development of improved strategies to promote better long-term health in women