Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

Cryptic multiple hypotheses testing in linear models: overestimated effect sizes and the winner's curse

Fitting generalised linear models (GLMs) with more than one predictor has become the standard method of analysis in evolutionary and behavioural research. Often, GLMs are used for exploratory data analysis, where one starts with a complex full model including interaction terms and then simplifies by removing non-significant terms. While this approach can be useful, it is problematic if significant effects are interpreted as if they arose from a single a priori hypothesis test. This is because model selection involves cryptic multiple hypothesis testing, a fact that has only rarely been acknowledged or quantified. We show that the probability of finding at least one ‘significant’ effect is high, even if all null hypotheses are true (e.g. 40% when starting with four predictors and their two-way interactions). This probability is close to theoretical expectations when the sample size (N) is large relative to the number of predictors including interactions (k). In contrast, type I error rates strongly exceed even those expectations when model simplification is applied to models that are over-fitted before simplification (low N/k ratio). The increase in false-positive results arises primarily from an overestimation of effect sizes among significant predictors, leading to upward-biased effect sizes that often cannot be reproduced in follow-up studies (‘the winner's curse’). Despite having their own problems, full model tests and P value adjustments can be used as a guide to how frequently type I errors arise by sampling variation alone. We favour the presentation of full models, since they best reflect the range of predictors investigated and ensure a balanced representation also of non-significant results

Stories of Value: The Nature of Money in Three Classic British Picture Books

Much of the literature on children’s economic socialisation focuses on exploring three questions: at what point do children acquire a “good grasp of economic reality,” do they become “responsible economic agents,” and do they need to be considered “economically literate” (Furnham, 2014, p. 118)? These concerns often imply a pragmatic understanding of money as a quantitative commodity that facilitates transaction, accounting, and the storing of value (Belk & Wallendorf, 1990). Yet they also imply an appreciation of what is considered to be ‘literate’ and ‘responsible’ behaviour, supposedly informed by a ‘good grasp’ of ‘reality’. Finally, it assumes unproblematic knowledge of what is ‘valuable.

Peripheral Effects of FAAH Deficiency on Fuel and Energy Homeostasis: Role of Dysregulated Lysine Acetylation

FAAH (fatty acid amide hydrolase), primarily expressed in the liver, hydrolyzes the endocannabinoids fatty acid ethanolamides (FAA). Human FAAH gene mutations are associated with increased body weight and obesity. In our present study, using targeted metabolite and lipid profiling, and new global acetylome profiling methodologies, we examined the role of the liver on fuel and energy homeostasis in whole body FAAH(-/-) mice.FAAH(-/-) mice exhibit altered energy homeostasis demonstrated by decreased oxygen consumption (Indirect calorimetry). FAAH(-/-) mice are hyperinsulinemic and have adipose, skeletal and hepatic insulin resistance as indicated by stable isotope phenotyping (SIPHEN). Fed state skeletal muscle and liver triglyceride levels was increased 2-3 fold, while glycogen was decreased 42% and 57% respectively. Hepatic cholesterol synthesis was decreased 22% in FAAH(-/-) mice. Dysregulated hepatic FAAH(-/-) lysine acetylation was consistent with their metabolite profiling. Fasted to fed increases in hepatic FAAH(-/-) acetyl-CoA (85%, p<0.01) corresponded to similar increases in citrate levels (45%). Altered FAAH(-/-) mitochondrial malate dehydrogenase (MDH2) acetylation, which can affect the malate aspartate shuttle, was consistent with our observation of a 25% decrease in fed malate and aspartate levels. Decreased fasted but not fed dihydroxyacetone-P and glycerol-3-P levels in FAAH(-/-) mice was consistent with a compensating contribution from decreased acetylation of fed FAAH(-/-) aldolase B. Fed FAAH(-/-) alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) acetylation was also decreased.Whole body FAAH deletion contributes to a pre-diabetic phenotype by mechanisms resulting in impairment of hepatic glucose and lipid metabolism. FAAH(-/-) mice had altered hepatic lysine acetylation, the pattern sharing similarities with acetylation changes reported with chronic alcohol treatment. Dysregulated hepatic lysine acetylation seen with impaired FAA hydrolysis could support the liver's role in fostering the pre-diabetic state, and may reflect part of the mechanism underlying the hepatic effects of endocannabinoids in alcoholic liver disease mouse models

Monitoring Flower Visitation Networks and Interactions between Pairs of Bumble Bees in a Large Outdoor Flight Cage

This research was supported by a combined grant from the Wellcome Trust, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (BB/F52765X/1). While writing, ML was supported by the IDEX of the Federal University of Toulouse (Starting and Emergence grants), the Fyssen foundation and the CNRS. NER was supported as the Rebanks Family Chair in Pollinator Conservation by The W. Garfield Weston Foundation. LC was supported by ERC Advanced Grant SpaceRadarPollinator and by a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award

Ethnic Related Selection for an ADH Class I Variant within East Asia

The alcohol dehydrogenases (ADH) are widely studied enzymes and the evolution of the mammalian gene cluster encoding these enzymes is also well studied. Previous studies have shown that the ADH1B*47His allele at one of the seven genes in humans is associated with a decrease in the risk of alcoholism and the core molecular region with this allele has been selected for in some East Asian populations. As the frequency of ADH1B*47His is highest in East Asia, and very low in most of the rest of the world, we have undertaken more detailed investigation in this geographic region.Here we report new data on 30 SNPs in the ADH7 and Class I ADH region in samples of 24 populations from China and Laos. These populations cover a wide geographic region and diverse ethnicities. Combined with our previously published East Asian data for these SNPs in 8 populations, we have typed populations from all of the 6 major linguistic phyla (Altaic including Korean-Japanese and inland Altaic, Sino-Tibetan, Hmong-Mien, Austro-Asiatic, Daic, and Austronesian). The ADH1B genotyping data are strongly related to ethnicity. Only some eastern ethnic phyla or subphyla (Korean-Japanese, Han Chinese, Hmong-Mien, Daic, and Austronesian) have a high frequency of ADH1B*47His. ADH1B haplotype data clustered the populations into linguistic subphyla, and divided the subphyla into eastern and western parts. In the Hmong-Mien and Altaic populations, the extended haplotype homozygosity (EHH) and relative EHH (REHH) tests for the ADH1B core were consistent with selection for the haplotype with derived SNP alleles. In the other ethnic phyla, the core showed only a weak signal of selection at best.The selection distribution is more significantly correlated with the frequency of the derived ADH1B regulatory region polymorphism than the derived amino-acid altering allele ADH1B*47His. Thus, the real focus of selection may be the regulatory region. The obvious ethnicity-related distributions of ADH1B diversities suggest the existence of some culture-related selective forces that have acted on the ADH1B region

A hematopoietic contribution to microhemorrhage formation during antiviral CD8 T cell-initiated blood-brain barrier disruption

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The extent to which susceptibility to brain hemorrhage is derived from blood-derived factors or stromal tissue remains largely unknown. We have developed an inducible model of CD8 T cell-initiated blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption using a variation of the Theiler's murine encephalomyelitis virus (TMEV) model of multiple sclerosis. This peptide-induced fatal syndrome (PIFS) model results in severe central nervous system (CNS) vascular permeability and death in the C57BL/6 mouse strain, but not in the 129 SvIm mouse strain, despite the two strains' having indistinguishable CD8 T-cell responses. Therefore, we hypothesize that hematopoietic factors contribute to susceptibility to brain hemorrhage, CNS vascular permeability and death following induction of PIFS.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>PIFS was induced by intravenous injection of VP2_121-130peptide at 7 days post-TMEV infection. We then investigated brain inflammation, astrocyte activation, vascular permeability, functional deficit and microhemorrhage formation using T2*-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in C57BL/6 and 129 SvIm mice. To investigate the contribution of hematopoietic cells in this model, hemorrhage-resistant 129 SvIm mice were reconstituted with C57BL/6 or autologous 129 SvIm bone marrow. Gadolinium-enhanced, T1-weighted MRI was used to visualize the extent of CNS vascular permeability after bone marrow transfer.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>C57BL/6 and 129 SvIm mice had similar inflammation in the CNS during acute infection. After administration of VP2_121-130peptide, however, C57BL/6 mice had increased astrocyte activation, CNS vascular permeability, microhemorrhage formation and functional deficits compared to 129 SvIm mice. The 129 SvIm mice reconstituted with C57BL/6 but not autologous bone marrow had increased microhemorrhage formation as measured by T2*-weighted MRI, exhibited a profound increase in CNS vascular permeability as measured by three-dimensional volumetric analysis of gadolinium-enhanced, T1-weighted MRI, and became moribund in this model system.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>C57BL/6 mice are highly susceptible to microhemorrhage formation, severe CNS vascular permeability and morbidity compared to the 129 SvIm mouse. This susceptibility is transferable with the bone marrow compartment, demonstrating that hematopoietic factors are responsible for the onset of brain microhemorrhage and vascular permeability in immune-mediated fatal BBB disruption.</p

Repetitive Pertussis Toxin Promotes Development of Regulatory T Cells and Prevents Central Nervous System Autoimmune Disease

Bacterial and viral infections have long been implicated in pathogenesis and progression of multiple sclerosis (MS). Incidence and severity of its animal model experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE) can be enhanced by concomitant administration of pertussis toxin (PTx), the major virulence factor of Bordetella pertussis. Its adjuvant effect at the time of immunization with myelin antigen is attributed to an unspecific activation and facilitated migration of immune cells across the blood brain barrier into the central nervous system (CNS). In order to evaluate whether recurring exposure to bacterial antigen may have a differential effect on development of CNS autoimmunity, we repetitively administered PTx prior to immunization. Mice weekly injected with PTx were largely protected from subsequent EAE induction which was reflected by a decreased proliferation and pro-inflammatory differentiation of myelin-reactive T cells. Splenocytes isolated from EAE-resistant mice predominantly produced IL-10 upon re-stimulation with PTx, while non-specific immune responses were unchanged. Longitudinal analyses revealed that repetitive exposure of mice to PTx gradually elevated serum levels for TGF-β and IL-10 which was associated with an expansion of peripheral CD4+CD25+FoxP3+ regulatory T cells (Treg). Increased frequency of Treg persisted upon immunization and thereafter. Collectively, these data suggest a scenario in which repetitive PTx treatment protects mice from development of CNS autoimmune disease through upregulation of regulatory cytokines and expansion of CD4+CD25+FoxP3+ Treg. Besides its therapeutic implication, this finding suggests that encounter of the immune system with microbial products may not only be part of CNS autoimmune disease pathogenesis but also of its regulation

Green Sturgeon Physical Habitat Use in the Coastal Pacific Ocean

The green sturgeon (Acipenser medirostris) is a highly migratory, oceanic, anadromous species with a complex life history that makes it vulnerable to species-wide threats in both freshwater and at sea. Green sturgeon population declines have preceded legal protection and curtailment of activities in marine environments deemed to increase its extinction risk. Yet, its marine habitat is poorly understood. We built a statistical model to characterize green sturgeon marine habitat using data from a coastal tracking array located along the Siletz Reef near Newport, Oregon, USA that recorded the passage of 37 acoustically tagged green sturgeon. We classified seafloor physical habitat features with high-resolution bathymetric and backscatter data. We then described the distribution of habitat components and their relationship to green sturgeon presence using ordination and subsequently used generalized linear model selection to identify important habitat components. Finally, we summarized depth and temperature recordings from seven green sturgeon present off the Oregon coast that were fitted with pop-off archival geolocation tags. Our analyses indicated that green sturgeon, on average, spent a longer duration in areas with high seafloor complexity, especially where a greater proportion of the substrate consists of boulders. Green sturgeon in marine habitats are primarily found at depths of 20–60 meters and from 9.5–16.0°C. Many sturgeon in this study were likely migrating in a northward direction, moving deeper, and may have been using complex seafloor habitat because it coincides with the distribution of benthic prey taxa or provides refuge from predators. Identifying important green sturgeon marine habitat is an essential step towards accurately defining the conditions that are necessary for its survival and will eventually yield range-wide, spatially explicit predictions of green sturgeon distribution