Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly tied. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation

Vitamin D status in chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis: a cohort study from the North-West of England

Objective Severe vitamin D deficiency is a recognised cause of skeletal muscle fatigue and myopathy. The aim of this study was to examine whether chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is associated with altered circulating vitamin D metabolites. Design Cohort study. Setting UK university hospital, recruiting from April 2014 to April 2015. Participants Ninety-two patients with CFS/ME and 94 age-matched healthy controls (HCs). Main outcome measures The presence of a significant association between CFS/ME, fatigue and vitamin D measures. Results No evidence of a deficiency in serum total 25(OH) vitamin D (25(OH)D2 and 25(OH)D3 metabolites) was evident in individuals with CFS/ME. Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS) analysis revealed that total 25(OH)D was significantly higher (p=0.001) in serum of patients with CFS/ME compared with HCs (60.2 and 47.3 nmol/L, respectively). Analysis of food/ supplement diaries with WinDiets revealed that the higher total 25(OH) vitamin D concentrations observed in the CFS/ ME group were associated with increased vitamin D intake through use of supplements compared with the control group. Analysis of Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire data revealed no association between perceived fatigue and vitamin D levels. Conclusions Low serum concentrations of total 25(OH) D do not appear to b

Investigation of Testosterone, Androstenone, and Estradiol Metabolism in HepG2 Cells and Primary Culture Pig Hepatocytes and Their Effects on 17βHSD7 Gene Expression

Steroid metabolism is important in various species. The accumulation of androgen metabolite, androstenone, in pig adipose tissue is negatively associated with pork flavor, odour and makes the meat unfit for human consumption. The 17β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 7 (17βHSD7) expressed abundantly in porcine liver, and it was previously suggested to be associated with androstenone levels. Understanding the enzymes and metabolic pathways responsible for androstenone as well as other steroids metabolism is important for improving the meat quality. At the same time, metabolism of steroids is known to be species- and tissue-specific. Therefore it is important to investigate between-species variations in the hepatic steroid metabolism and to elucidate the role of 17βHSD7 in this process. Here we used an effective methodological approach, liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry, to investigate species-specific metabolism of androstenone, testosterone and beta-estradiol in HepG2 cell line, and pig cultured hepatocytes. Species- and concentration-depended effect of steroids on 17βHSD7 gene expression was also investigated. It was demonstrated that the investigated steroids can regulate the 17βHSD7 gene expression in HepG2 and primary cultured porcine hepatocytes in a concentration-dependent and species-dependent pattern. Investigation of steroid metabolites demonstrated that androstenone formed a 3′-hydroxy compound 3β-hydroxy-5α-androst-16-ene. Testosterone was metabolized to 4-androstene-3,17-dione. Estrone was found as the metabolite for β-estradiol. Inhibition study with 17βHSD inhibitor apigenin showed that apigenin didn't affect androstenone metabolism. Apigenin at high concentration (50 μM) tends to inhibit testosterone metabolism but this inhibition effect was negligible. Beta-estradiol metabolism was notably inhibited with apigenin at high concentration. The study also established that the level of testosterone and β-estradiol metabolites was markedly increased after co-incubation with high concentration of apigenin. This study established that 17βHSD7 is not the key enzyme responsible for androstenone and testosterone metabolism in porcine liver cells. © 2012 Chen et al

Using molecular data for epidemiological inference: assessing the prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in Tsetse in Serengeti, Tanzania

Background: Measuring the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in tsetse populations is essential for understanding transmission dynamics, assessing human disease risk and monitoring spatio-temporal trends and the impact of control interventions. Although an important epidemiological variable, identifying flies which carry transmissible infections is difficult, with challenges including low prevalence, presence of other trypanosome species in the same fly, and concurrent detection of immature non-transmissible infections. Diagnostic tests to measure the prevalence of T. b. rhodesiense in tsetse are applied and interpreted inconsistently, and discrepancies between studies suggest this value is not consistently estimated even to within an order of magnitude. Methodology/Principal Findings: Three approaches were used to estimate the prevalence of transmissible Trypanosoma brucei s.l. and T. b. rhodesiense in Glossina swynnertoni and G. pallidipes in Serengeti National Park, Tanzania: (i) dissection/microscopy; (ii) PCR on infected tsetse midguts; and (iii) inference from a mathematical model. Using dissection/microscopy the prevalence of transmissible T. brucei s.l. was 0% (95% CI 0–0.085) for G. swynnertoni and 0% (0–0.18) G. pallidipes; using PCR the prevalence of transmissible T. b. rhodesiense was 0.010% (0–0.054) and 0.0089% (0–0.059) respectively, and by model inference 0.0064% and 0.00085% respectively. Conclusions/Significance: The zero prevalence result by dissection/microscopy (likely really greater than zero given the results of other approaches) is not unusual by this technique, often ascribed to poor sensitivity. The application of additional techniques confirmed the very low prevalence of T. brucei suggesting the zero prevalence result was attributable to insufficient sample size (despite examination of 6000 tsetse). Given the prohibitively high sample sizes required to obtain meaningful results by dissection/microscopy, PCR-based approaches offer the current best option for assessing trypanosome prevalence in tsetse but inconsistencies in relating PCR results to transmissibility highlight the need for a consensus approach to generate meaningful and comparable data

Development of a cDNA microarray for the measurement of gene expression in the sheep scab mite Psoroptes ovis

Background: Sheep scab is caused by the ectoparasitic mite Psoroptes ovis which initiates a profound cutaneous inflammatory response, leading to the development of the skin lesions which are characteristic of the disease. Existing control strategies rely upon injectable endectocides and acaricidal dips but concerns over residues, eco-toxicity and the development of acaricide resistance limit the sustainability of this approach. In order to identify alternative means of disease control, a deeper understanding of both the parasite and its interaction with the host are required. Methods: Herein we describe the development and utilisation of an annotated P. ovis cDNA microarray containing 3,456 elements for the measurement of gene expression in this economically important ectoparasite. The array consists of 981 P. ovis EST sequences printed in triplicate along with 513 control elements. Array performance was validated through the analysis of gene expression differences between fed and starved P. ovis mites. Results: Sequences represented on the array include homologues of major house dust mite allergens and tick salivary proteins, along with factors potentially involved in mite reproduction and xenobiotic metabolism. In order to validate the performance of this unique resource under biological conditions we used the array to analyse gene expression differences between fed and starved P. ovis mites. These analyses identified a number of house dust mite allergen homologues up-regulated in fed mites and P. ovis transcripts involved in stress responses, autophagy and chemosensory perception up-regulated in starved mites. Conclusion: The P. ovis cDNA microarray described here has been shown to be both robust and reproducible and will enable future studies to analyse gene expression in this important ectoparasite

Novel Cytochrome P450, cyp6a17, Is Required for Temperature Preference Behavior in Drosophila

Perception of temperature is an important brain function for organisms to survive. Evidence suggests that temperature preference behavior (TPB) in Drosophila melanogaster, one of poikilothermal animals, is regulated by cAMP-dependent protein kinase (PKA) signaling in mushroom bodies of the brain. However, downstream targets for the PKA signaling in this behavior have not been identified. From a genome-wide search for the genes regulated by PKA activity in the mushroom bodies, we identified the cyp6a17 Cytochrome P450 gene as a new target for PKA. Our detailed analysis of mutants by genetic, molecular and behavioral assays shows that cyp6a17 is essential for temperature preference behavior. cyp6a17 expression is enriched in the mushroom bodies of the adult brain. Tissue-specific knockdown and rescue experiments demonstrate that cyp6a17 is required in the mushroom bodies for normal temperature preference behavior. This is the first study, to our knowledge, to show PKA-dependent expression of a cytochrome P450 gene in the mushroom bodies and its role as a key factor for temperature preference behavior. Taken together, this study reveals a new PKA-Cytochrome P450 pathway that regulates the temperature preference behavior

The Effects of Biting and Pulling on the Forces Generated during Feeding in the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis)

In addition to biting, it has been speculated that the forces resulting from pulling on food items may also contribute to feeding success in carnivorous vertebrates. We present an in vivo analysis of both bite and pulling forces in Varanus komodoensis, the Komodo dragon, to determine how they contribute to feeding behavior. Observations of cranial modeling and behavior suggest that V. komodoensis feeds using bite force supplemented by pulling in the caudal/ventrocaudal direction. We tested these observations using force gauges/transducers to measure biting and pulling forces. Maximum bite force correlates with both body mass and total body length, likely due to increased muscle mass. Individuals showed consistent behaviors when biting, including the typical medial-caudal head rotation. Pull force correlates best with total body length, longer limbs and larger postcranial motions. None of these forces correlated well with head dimensions. When pulling, V. komodoensis use neck and limb movements that are associated with increased caudal and ventral oriented force. Measured bite force in Varanus komodoensis is similar to several previous estimations based on 3D models, but is low for its body mass relative to other vertebrates. Pull force, especially in the ventrocaudal direction, would allow individuals to hunt and deflesh with high success without the need of strong jaw adductors. In future studies, pull forces need to be considered for a complete understanding of vertebrate carnivore feeding dynamics

Genome-wide methylation and gene expression changes in newborn rats following maternal protein restriction and reversal by folic acid

A large body of evidence from human and animal studies demonstrates that the maternal diet during pregnancy can programme physiological and metabolic functions in the developing fetus, effectively determining susceptibility to later disease. The mechanistic basis of such programming is unclear but may involve resetting of epigenetic marks and fetal gene expression. The aim of this study was to evaluate genome-wide DNA methylation and gene expression in the livers of newborn rats exposed to maternal protein restriction. On day one postnatally, there were 618 differentially expressed genes and 1183 differentially methylated regions (FDR 5%). The functional analysis of differentially expressed genes indicated a significant effect on DNA repair/cycle/maintenance functions and of lipid, amino acid metabolism and circadian functions. Enrichment for known biological functions was found to be associated with differentially methylated regions. Moreover, these epigenetically altered regions overlapped genetic loci associated with metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. Both expression changes and DNA methylation changes were largely reversed by supplementing the protein restricted diet with folic acid. Although the epigenetic and gene expression signatures appeared to underpin largely different biological processes, the gene expression profile of DNA methyl transferases was altered, providing a potential link between the two molecular signatures. The data showed that maternal protein restriction is associated with widespread differential gene expression and DNA methylation across the genome, and that folic acid is able to reset both molecular signatures

Prioritizing Risks and Uncertainties from Intentional Release of Selected Category A Pathogens

This paper synthesizes available information on five Category A pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Yersinia pestis, Francisella tularensis, Variola major and Lassa) to develop quantitative guidelines for how environmental pathogen concentrations may be related to human health risk in an indoor environment. An integrated model of environmental transport and human health exposure to biological pathogens is constructed which 1) includes the effects of environmental attenuation, 2) considers fomite contact exposure as well as inhalational exposure, and 3) includes an uncertainty analysis to identify key input uncertainties, which may inform future research directions. The findings provide a framework for developing the many different environmental standards that are needed for making risk-informed response decisions, such as when prophylactic antibiotics should be distributed, and whether or not a contaminated area should be cleaned up. The approach is based on the assumption of uniform mixing in environmental compartments and is thus applicable to areas sufficiently removed in time and space from the initial release that mixing has produced relatively uniform concentrations. Results indicate that when pathogens are released into the air, risk from inhalation is the main component of the overall risk, while risk from ingestion (dermal contact for B. anthracis) is the main component of the overall risk when pathogens are present on surfaces. Concentrations sampled from untracked floor, walls and the filter of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system are proposed as indicators of previous exposure risk, while samples taken from touched surfaces are proposed as indicators of future risk if the building is reoccupied. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis is conducted and input-output correlations used to identify important parameter uncertainties. An approach is proposed for integrating these quantitative assessments of parameter uncertainty with broader, qualitative considerations to identify future research priorities