A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean basin

International audienceThis study investigates a method for best member selection of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) with the goal to increase quantitative precipitation forecast. A case study that occurred between 22-24 May 2002 over Calabria, southern Italy, is discussed. Mediterranean storms often develop under upper level disturbances which are usually associated with high values of potential vorticity. Anomalously high values of potential vorticity can be identified by the METEOSAT water vapor channel centered around 6.3 ?m because they are associated with dark band on the METEOSAT image. This signature offers a chance to identify the upper level disturbance that can be exploited in data void countries as Calabria. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast. This issue is utilized in an ensemble forecast where member forecasts are compatible with the analysis and forecast errors. These members are grouped in five clusters by a hierarchical clustering technique which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause to compute distances between members. Therefore the members of a cluster have a similar representation of the upper level disturbance. For each cluster a representative member is selected and its pseudo water vapor image is compared with the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapor image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria. The subjective evaluation of the comparison allows to gain physical insight in the storm evolution and to select representative members which are more in agreement with the METEOSAT image. Results, even if for a case study, show the feasibility of the methodology that, if confirmed by further investigations, could be valuable in data void countries as the central Mediterranean basin

Adaptive constraints for feature tracking

In this paper extensions to an existing tracking algorithm are described. These extensions implement adaptive tracking constraints in the form of regional upper-bound displacements and an adaptive track smoothness constraint. Together, these constraints make the tracking algorithm more flexible than the original algorithm (which used fixed tracking parameters) and provide greater confidence in the tracking results. The result of applying the new algorithm to high-resolution ECMWF reanalysis data is shown as an example of its effectiveness

Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

International audienceThis paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and mesoscale forcing, the high resolution forecast (Hi-Res) has better performance compared to the ensemble mean for rainfall thresholds larger than 10mm but it tends to overestimate precipitation for lower amounts. This yields larger false alarms that have a detrimental effect on objective scores for lower thresholds. To exploit the advantages of a probabilistic forecast compared to a deterministic one, the relation between the ECMWF-EPS 700 hPa geopotential height spread and LEPS performance is analyzed. Results are promising even if additional studies are required

Predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterraneanbasin: sensitivity to upper-level forcing

International audienceThis study investigates the sensitivity of a moderate-intense storm that occurred over Calabria, southern Italy, to upper-tropospheric forcing from a Potential Vorticity (PV) perspective. A prominent mid-troposheric trough can be identified for this event, which occurred between 22?24 May 2002, and serves as the precursor agent for the moderate-intense precipitation recorded. The working hypothesis is that the uncertainty in the representation of the upper-level disturbance has a major impact on the precipitation forecast and we test the hypothesis in a two-step approach. First, we examine the degree of uncertainty by comparing five different scenarios in a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework which utilizes the height of the dynamical tropopause as the discriminating variable. Pseudo water vapour images of different scenarios are compared to the corresponding METEOSAT 7 water vapour image at a specific time, antecedent to the rain occurrence over Calabria, in order to evaluate the reliability of the different precipitation scenarios simulated by the LEPS. Second, we examine the impact of upper tropospheric PV variations on precipitation by comparing model simulations with slightly different initial PV fields. Initial velocity and mass fields in each case are balanced with the chosen PV perturbation using a PV inversion technique. The results of this study support the working hypothesis

Raman scattering and FT-IR spectroscopic studies on dithienylethene switches—towards non-destructive optical readout

The non-destructive readout of photochromic memory materials based on the dithienylethene unit both by IR spectroscopy and Raman scattering is explored. A representative series of C5-substituted thienyl hexahydro- and hexafluoro-cyclopentene based photochromes was investigated to explore the effect and potential usefulness of substitution for the development of multicomponent memory materials. The effect of the deposition method on the photochemistry of solid materials containing photochromic dithienylcyclopentene switches was also explored. Photoconversion in the solid state to the closed form was found to be low when starting from the open form, but, in contrast, ring opening to the open state from the closed form was found to be complete. The effect was found to be due to inner filter rather than conformational phenomena. Characteristic vibrational bands for the central dithienyl core are assigned and a comparison made of the vibrational spectroscopic properties of the perhydro- and perfluoro switches. The data enable the determination of the photoconversion achievable in the solid state as well as some assessment of the influence of the deposition method on the photoconversion. The potential of Raman spectroscopy as a method of achieving non-destructive optical readout is demonstrated through the large differences in absolute Raman scattering intensity between the open and closed states, when monitored at wavelengths which do not result in photochemical ring opening.

Manifestation of postcollision interaction in Krypton LMN Auger spectrafollowing K-shell photoionization

We report on an experimental and theoretical study of postcollision interaction (PCI) effects on L2−M4,5N2,3 Auger electrons measured above the Kr K-edge in which L2 vacancies are primarily generated by KL2 x-ray emission. Such cascade processes, in which a deep inner-shell vacancy decays first by x-ray emission followed by Auger electron emission, is a strong decay mode in heavy atoms. The L2−M4,5N2,3 Auger electron peak is observed to become increasingly asymmetric with a shifting peak maximum as the absorbed x-ray energy approaches the K-shell ionization threshold. This is attributed to PCI energy exchanges of the Auger electron with the 1s photoelectron. To model the PCI effects, we have applied a semiclassical approach modified to account for the combined lifetimes of the K and L2 hole states. In addition, our analysis treats several closely spaced Auger transitions with final ionic states having different terms and angular momenta

Ab initio Calculations of Multilayer Relaxations of Stepped Cu Surfaces

We present trends in the multilayer relaxations of several vicinals of Cu(100) and Cu(111) of varying terrace widths and geometry. The electronic structure calculations are based on density functional theory in the local density approximation with norm-conserving, non-local pseudopotentials in the mixed basis representation. While relaxations continue for several layers, the major effect concentrates near the step and corner atoms. On all surfaces the step atoms contract inwards, in agreement with experimental findings. Additionally, the corner atoms move outwards and the atoms in the adjacent chain undergo large inward relaxation. Correspondingly, the largest contraction (4%) is in the bond length between the step atom and its bulk nearest neighbor (BNN), while that between the corner atom and BNN is somewhat enlarged. The surface atoms also display changes in registry of upto 1.5%. Our results are in general in good agreement with LEED data including the controversial case of Cu(511). Subtle differences are found with results obtained from semi-empirical potentials.Comment: 21 pages and 3 figure

Tamoxifen Dose Escalation in Patients With Diminished CYP2D6 Activity Normalizes Endoxifen Concentrations Without Increasing Toxicity

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139937/1/onco0795-sup-0002.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139937/2/onco0795-sup-0001.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/139937/3/onco0795.pd

DCMIP2016: a review of non-hydrostatic dynamical core design and intercomparison of participating models

Atmospheric dynamical cores are a fundamental component of global atmospheric modeling systems and are responsible for capturing the dynamical behavior of the Earth's atmosphere via numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. These systems have existed in one form or another for over half of a century, with the earliest discretizations having now evolved into a complex ecosystem of algorithms and computational strategies. In essence, no two dynamical cores are alike, and their individual successes suggest that no perfect model exists. To better understand modern dynamical cores, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of 11 non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, drawn from modeling centers and groups that participated in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) workshop and summer school. This review includes a choice of model grid, variable placement, vertical coordinate, prognostic equations, temporal discretization, and the diffusion, stabilization, filters, and fixers employed by each syste