Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Journal ArticlePublished version used with permision of the publisher.The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction. Key Points The QBO is skilfully predicted in seasonal-decadal forecast systems Further improvements in predictions of the QBO are possible The QBO winter surface teleconnection is reproduced with mixed succes

Tritium and helium behavior in irradiated beryllium

Large quantities of Be (> 100 metric tons) are planned for use in the ITER blanket design to enhance tritium breeding and to act as a thermal barrier between coolant and breeder. Tritium retention/release and He-induced swelling are important issues in blanket design. The data base on tritium and helium behavior in Be is reviewed. New data on tritium retention/release and He bubble growth are presented for Be irradiated to 5 {times} 10{sup 22} n(E > 1 MeV)/cm{sup 2} at {approximately}75{degree}C and postirradiation-annealed for 700 hours at 500{degree}C. A model (diffusion/desorption) is proposed and tested against the data base to determine tritium diffusivity and the desorption rate constant. Similarly a model for He-induced swelling is developed and tested against the data base. The dependence of tritium retention and release on He content and impurities (e.g. BeO) is also explored. 11 refs., 6 figs

Adrenal Dysfunction in Hemodynamically Unstable Patients in the Emergency Department

Objective: Adrenal failure, a treatable condition, can have catastrophic consequences if unrecognized in critically ill ED patients. The authors' objective was to prospectively study adrenal function in a case series of hemodynamically unstable (high-risk) patients from a large, urban ED over a 12-month period. Methods: In a prospective manner, critically ill adult patients presenting to the ED were enrolled when presenting with a mean arterial blood pressure ≤60 mm Hg requiring vasopressor therapy for more than one hour after receiving fluid resuscitation (central venous pressure of 12-15 mm Hg or a minimum of 40 mL/kg of crystalloid). Patients were excluded if presenting with hemorrhage, trauma, or AIDS, or if steroids were used within the previous six months. An adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) stimulation test was performed and serum cortisol was measured. Treatment for adrenal insufficiency was not instituted. Results: A total of 57 consecutive patients were studied. Of these, eight (14%) had baseline serum cortisol concentrations of <20 Μg/dL (<552 nmol/L), which was considered adrenal insufficiency (AI). Three additional patients (5%) had subnormal 60-minute post-ACTH-stimulation cortisol responses (<30 Μg/dL) and a delta cortisol ≤9 Μg/dL, which is the difference between the baseline and 60-minute levels. This is functional hypoadrenalism (FH). There were no laboratory abnormalities that distinguished patients with AI or FH from those with preserved adrenal function (PAF). Rates of survival to discharge did not differ between the AI group (7 of 8) and PAF patients (21 of 46; p = 0.052). Conclusions: Adrenal dysfunction is common in high-risk ED patients. Overall, it has a frequency of 19% among a homogeneous population of hemodynamically unstable vasopressor-dependent patients. The effect of physiologic glucocorticoid replacement in this setting remains to be determined.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/71956/1/j.1553-2712.1999.tb00417.x.pd

Intraspecific Combinations of Flower and Leaf Volatiles Act Together in Attracting Hawkmoth Pollinators

Insects pinpoint mates, food and oviposition sites by olfactory cues. Recognizing and localizing a suitable target by olfaction is demanding. Odor sources emit characteristic blends of compounds that have to be identified against an environmentally derived olfactory background. This background, however, does not necessarily disturb the localization of a source. Rather, the contrary. Sex pheromones become more attractive to male moths when being presented against a relevant plant background. Here we asked whether such olfactory coaction also characterizes foraging cues. The tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta feeds on nectar from wild tobacco Nicotiana attenuata and sacred datura Datura wrightii flowers. We tested how leaf-derived volatile blends as a background affect the moths' approach to flower blends. We found coaction when a flower blend was presented against a conspecific leaf volatile background but not when the blend was presented against volatiles emitted by the other host plant or by a non-host plant. Hence, our results reveal a species-specific coaction between flower blend and leaf volatile background. The ability to integrate information from different odor sources on one plant might provide the moth with a fine-grained analysis of food site quality

A High Resolution Atlas of Composite SDSS Galaxy Spectra

In this work we present an atlas of composite spectra of galaxies based on the data of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 (SDSS DR7). Galaxies are classified by colour, nuclear activity and star-formation activity to calculate average spectra of high signal-to-noise ratio and resolution (S/N = 132 - 4760 at {Dlambda = 1 A), using an algorithm that is robust against outliers. Besides composite spectra, we also compute the first five principal components of the distributions in each galaxy class to characterize the nature of variations of individual spectra around the averages. The continua of the composite spectra are fitted with BC03 stellar population synthesis models to extend the wavelength coverage beyond the coverage of the SDSS spectrographs. Common derived parameters of the composites are also calculated: integrated colours in the most popular filter systems, line strength measurements, and continuum absorption indices (including Lick indices). These derived parameters are compared with the distributions of parameters of individual galaxies and it is shown on many examples that the composites of the atlas cover much of the parameter space spanned by SDSS galaxies. By co-adding thousands of spectra, a total integration time of several months can be reached, which results in extremely low noise composites. The variations in redshift not only allow for extending the spectral coverage bluewards to the original wavelength limit of the SDSS spectrographs, but also make higher spectral resolution achievable. The composite spectrum atlas is available online at http://www.vo.elte.hu/compositeatlas

A New Vaccine for Tuberculosis: The Challenges of Development and Deployment

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the world’s leading causes of death due to infection and efforts to control TB would be substantially aided by the availability of an improved TB vaccine. There are currently nine new TB vaccines in clinical development, and the first efficacy trials are due to commence in 2009. There are many complex ethical issues which arise at all stages of TB vaccine development, from the need to conduct trials in developing countries to informed consent and the process of ethical review. While it is important that these issues are discussed, it may also be timely to consider the challenges which may arise if a vaccine in clinical development proves to be highly effective. We examine a number of scenarios where decisions on the deployment of a new TB vaccine may impact on the rights and liberty of the individual

Real-time phase-contrast x-ray imaging: a new technique for the study of animal form and function

BACKGROUND: Despite advances in imaging techniques, real-time visualization of the structure and dynamics of tissues and organs inside small living animals has remained elusive. Recently, we have been using synchrotron x-rays to visualize the internal anatomy of millimeter-sized opaque, living animals. This technique takes advantage of partially-coherent x-rays and diffraction to enable clear visualization of internal soft tissue not viewable via conventional absorption radiography. However, because higher quality images require greater x-ray fluxes, there exists an inherent tradeoff between image quality and tissue damage. RESULTS: We evaluated the tradeoff between image quality and harm to the animal by determining the impact of targeted synchrotron x-rays on insect physiology, behavior and survival. Using 25 keV x-rays at a flux density of 80 μW/mm(-2), high quality video-rate images can be obtained without major detrimental effects on the insects for multiple minutes, a duration sufficient for many physiological studies. At this setting, insects do not heat up. Additionally, we demonstrate the range of uses of synchrotron phase-contrast imaging by showing high-resolution images of internal anatomy and observations of labeled food movement during ingestion and digestion. CONCLUSION: Synchrotron x-ray phase contrast imaging has the potential to revolutionize the study of physiology and internal biomechanics in small animals. This is the only generally applicable technique that has the necessary spatial and temporal resolutions, penetrating power, and sensitivity to soft tissue that is required to visualize the internal physiology of living animals on the scale from millimeters to microns

Asteroseismology and Interferometry

Asteroseismology provides us with a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of stellar structure and evolution. Recent developments, including the first systematic studies of solar-like pulsators, have boosted the impact of this field of research within Astrophysics and have led to a significant increase in the size of the research community. In the present paper we start by reviewing the basic observational and theoretical properties of classical and solar-like pulsators and present results from some of the most recent and outstanding studies of these stars. We centre our review on those classes of pulsators for which interferometric studies are expected to provide a significant input. We discuss current limitations to asteroseismic studies, including difficulties in mode identification and in the accurate determination of global parameters of pulsating stars, and, after a brief review of those aspects of interferometry that are most relevant in this context, anticipate how interferometric observations may contribute to overcome these limitations. Moreover, we present results of recent pilot studies of pulsating stars involving both asteroseismic and interferometric constraints and look into the future, summarizing ongoing efforts concerning the development of future instruments and satellite missions which are expected to have an impact in this field of research.Comment: Version as published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review, Volume 14, Issue 3-4, pp. 217-36

The predictive role of serum and bronchoalveolar lavage cytokines and adhesion molecules for acute respiratory distress syndrome development and outcome

BACKGROUND: The predictive role of many cytokines and adhesion molecules has not been studied systematically in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). METHODS: We measured prospectively tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), interleukin (IL)-1, soluble vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) in serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) within 2 hours following admission, in 65 patients. The patients were divided into: those fulfilling the criteria for ARDS (n = 23, group A), those who were pre-ARDS and who developed ARDS within 24 hours (n = 14, group B), and those on pre-ARDS but who never developed ARDS (n = 28, group C). RESULTS: All the measured molecules were only found at higher levels in the serum of patients that died either with or without ARDS (P < 0.05 – P < 0.0001). Patients at risk exhibited a good negative predictive value (NPV) of the measured molecules for ARDS development both in their serum (89 to 95%) and BALF (86 to 92%) levels. In contrast to BALF, serum levels of IL-1 and adhesion molecules exhibited a good NPV (68 to 96%), sensitivity (60 to 88%) and survival specificity (74 to 96%) in all groups. All molecules in serum and BALF IL-1 were correlated with the APACHE II (P < 0.05 – P < 0.0001). Serum and BALF IL-1 as well as BALF TNF-α were negatively correlated to PaO(2)/FiO(2) (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The studied molecules have good NPV for ARDS development both in serum and BALF. Serum rather than BALF levels seem to be related to outcome

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values