The Failure of Uncovered Interest Parity: Is it Near-rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?

A risk-averse US investor adjusts the shares of a portfolio of short-term nominal domestic and foreign assets to maximize expected utility. The optimal strategy is to respond immediately to all new information which arrives weekly. We calculate the expected utility foregone when the investor abandons the optimal strategy and instead optimizes less frequently. We also consider the cases where the investor ignores the covariance between returns sourced in different countries, and where the investor makes unsystematic mistakes when forming expectations of exchange rate changes. We demonstrate that the expected utility cost of sub-optimal behaviour is generally very small. Thus, for example, if investors adjust portfolio shares every three months, they incur an average expected utility loss equivalent to about 0.16% p.a. It is therefore plausible that slight opportunity costs of frequent optimization may outweigh the benefits. This result may help explain the failure of uncovered interest parity.

Hydrogen Bond Energies in Carboxylic Acids

A question of interest to the study of the chemisorption of carbon monoxide on iron is whether the carbon is desorbed with the same oxygen to which it was bonded prior to the adsorption. A mixture of C13O and CO18 in the desorbed gas in amounts greater than expected from normal abundance ratios shows that an intermolecular oxygen exchange occurs

The Verifying Compiler: A Grand Challenge for Computing Research

Abstract. This contribution proposes a set of criteria that distinguish a grand challenge in science or engineering from the many other kinds of short-term or long-term research problems that engage the interest of scientists and engineers. As an example drawn from Computer Science, it revives an old challenge: the construction and application of a verifying compiler that guarantees correctness of a program before running it. Introduction. The primary purpose of the formulation and promulgation of a grand challenge is the advancement of science or engineering. A grand challenge represents a commitment by a significant section of the research community to work together towards a common goal, agreed to be valuable and achievable by a team effort within a predicted timescale. The challenge is formulated by th

Predicting substance use behavior among South African adolescents: The role of leisure experiences across time

Using seven waves of data, collected twice a year from the 8th through the 11th grades in a low-resource community in Cape Town, South Africa, we aimed to describe the developmental trends in three specific leisure experiences (leisure boredom, new leisure interests, and healthy leisure) and substance use (cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana) behaviors and to investigate the ways in which changes in leisure experiences predict changes in substance use behaviors over time. Results indicated that adolescents’ substance use increased significantly across adolescence, but that leisure experiences remained fairly stable over time. We also found that adolescent leisure experiences predicted baseline substance use and that changes in leisure experiences predicted changes in substance use behaviors over time, with leisure boredom emerging as the most consistent and strongest predictor of alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use. Implications for interventions that target time use and leisure experiences are discussed.Web of Scienc

Energy and system size dependence of \phi meson production in Cu+Cu and Au+Au collisions

We study the beam-energy and system-size dependence of \phi meson production (using the hadronic decay mode \phi -- K+K-) by comparing the new results from Cu+Cu collisions and previously reported Au+Au collisions at \sqrt{s_NN} = 62.4 and 200 GeV measured in the STAR experiment at RHIC. Data presented are from mid-rapidity (|y|<0.5) for 0.4 < pT < 5 GeV/c. At a given beam energy, the transverse momentum distributions for \phi mesons are observed to be similar in yield and shape for Cu+Cu and Au+Au colliding systems with similar average numbers of participating nucleons. The \phi meson yields in nucleus-nucleus collisions, normalised by the average number of participating nucleons, are found to be enhanced relative to those from p+p collisions with a different trend compared to strange baryons. The enhancement for \phi mesons is observed to be higher at \sqrt{s_NN} = 200 GeV compared to 62.4 GeV. These observations for the produced \phi(s\bar{s}) mesons clearly suggest that, at these collision energies, the source of enhancement of strange hadrons is related to the formation of a dense partonic medium in high energy nucleus-nucleus collisions and cannot be alone due to canonical suppression of their production in smaller systems.Comment: 20 pages and 5 figure

Accuracy of self-reported weight in Hispanic/Latino adults of the hispanic community health study/study of latinos

Background: Previous US population-based studies have found that body weight may be underestimated when self-reported. However, this research may not apply to all US Hispanics/Latinos, many of whom are immigrants with distinct cultural orientations to ideal body size. We assessed the data quality and accuracy of self-reported weight in a diverse, community-based, US sample of primarily foreign-born Hispanic/Latino adults. Methods: Using baseline data (2008-2011) from the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL), we described the difference between contemporaneous self-reported and measured current body weight (n = 16,119) and used multivariate adjusted models to establish whether the observed trends in misreporting in potential predictors of inaccuracy persisted after adjustment for other predictors. Last, we described the weighted percentage agreement in body mass classification using either self-reported or measured weight (n = 16,110). Results: Self-reported weight was well correlated with (r2 = 0.95) and on average 0.23 kg greater than measured weight. The range of this misreporting was large and several factors were associated with misreporting: age group, gender, body mass categories, nativity, study site by background, unit of self-report (kg or lb), and end-digit preference. The percentage agreement of body mass classification using self-reported versus measured weight was 86% and varied across prevalent health conditions. Conclusions: The direction of misreporting in self-reported weight, and thus the anticipated bias in obesity prevalence estimates based on self-reported weights, may differ in US Hispanic/Latinos from that found in prior studies. Future investigations using self-reported body weight in US Hispanic/Latinos should consider this information for bias analyses

Lichenometric dating (lichenometry) and the biology of the lichen genus rhizocarpon:challenges and future directions

Lichenometric dating (lichenometry) involves the use of lichen measurements to estimate the age of exposure of various substrata. Because of low radial growth rates and considerable longevity, species of the crustose lichen genus Rhizocarpon have been the most useful in lichenometry. The primary assumption of lichenometry is that colonization, growth and mortality of Rhizocarpon are similar on surfaces of known and unknown age so that the largest thalli present on the respective faces are of comparable age. This review describes the current state of knowledge regarding the biology of Rhizocarpon and considers two main questions: (1) to what extent does existing knowledge support this assumption; and (2) what further biological observations would be useful both to test its validity and to improve the accuracy of lichenometric dates? A review of the Rhizocarpon literature identified gaps in knowledge regarding early development, the growth rate/size curve, mortality, regeneration, competitive effects, colonization, and succession on rock surfaces. The data suggest that these processes may not be comparable on different rock surfaces, especially in regions where growth rates and thallus turnover are high. In addition, several variables could differ between rock surfaces and influence maximum thallus size, including rate and timing of colonization, radial growth rates, environmental differences, thallus fusion, allelopathy, thallus mortality, colonization and competition. Comparative measurements of these variables on surfaces of known and unknown age may help to determine whether the basic assumptions of lichenometry are valid. Ultimately, it may be possible to take these differences into account when interpreting estimated dates