Periodic trends and easy estimation of relative stabilities in 11-vertex nido-p-block-heteroboranes and -borates

Density functional theory computations were carried out for 11-vertex nido-p-block-hetero(carba)boranes and -borates containing silicon, germanium, tin, arsenic, antimony, sulfur, selenium and tellurium heteroatoms. A set of quantitative values called “estimated energy penalties” was derived by comparing the energies of two reference structures that differ with respect to one structural feature only. These energy penalties behave additively, i.e., they allow us to reproduce the DFT-computed relative stabilities of 11-vertex nido-heteroboranes in general with good accuracy and to predict the thermodynamic stabilities of unknown structures easily. Energy penalties for neighboring heteroatoms (HetHet and HetHet′) decrease down the group and increase along the period (indirectly proportional to covalent radii). Energy penalties for a five- rather than four-coordinate heteroatom, [Het5k(1) and Het5k(2)], generally, increase down group 14 but decrease down group 16, while there are mixed trends for group 15 heteroatoms. The sum of HetHet′ energy penalties results in different but easily predictable open-face heteroatom positions in the thermodynamically most stable mixed heterocarbaboranes and -borates with more than two heteroatoms

Tumour vascularization: sprouting angiogenesis and beyond

Tumour angiogenesis is a fast growing domain in tumour biology. Many growth factors and mechanisms have been unravelled. For almost 30 years, the sprouting of new vessels out of existing ones was considered as an exclusive way of tumour vascularisation. However, over the last years several additional mechanisms have been identified. With the discovery of the contribution of intussusceptive angiogenesis, recruitment of endothelial progenitor cells, vessel co-option, vasculogenic mimicry and lymphangiogenesis to tumour growth, anti-tumour targeting strategies will be more complex than initially thought. This review highlights these processes and intervention as a potential application in cancer therapy. It is concluded that future anti-vascular therapies might be most beneficial when based on multimodal anti-angiogenic, anti-vasculogenic mimicry and anti-lymphangiogenic strategies

Human genome meeting 2016 : Houston, TX, USA. 28 February - 2 March 2016

: O1 The metabolomics approach to autism: identification of biomarkers for early detection of autism spectrum disorder A. K. Srivastava, Y. Wang, R. Huang, C. Skinner, T. Thompson, L. Pollard, T. Wood, F. Luo, R. Stevenson O2 Phenome-wide association study for smoking- and drinking-associated genes in 26,394 American women with African, Asian, European, and Hispanic descents R. Polimanti, J. Gelernter O3 Effects of prenatal environment, genotype and DNA methylation on birth weight and subsequent postnatal outcomes: findings from GUSTO, an Asian birth cohort X. Lin, I. Y. Lim, Y. Wu, A. L. Teh, L. Chen, I. M. Aris, S. E. Soh, M. T. Tint, J. L. MacIsaac, F. Yap, K. Kwek, S. M. Saw, M. S. Kobor, M. J. Meaney, K. M. Godfrey, Y. S. Chong, J. D. Holbrook, Y. S. Lee, P. D. Gluckman, N. Karnani, GUSTO study group O4 High-throughput identification of specific qt interval modulating enhancers at the SCN5A locus A. Kapoor, D. Lee, A. Chakravarti O5 Identification of extracellular matrix components inducing cancer cell migration in the supernatant of cultivated mesenchymal stem cells C. Maercker, F. Graf, M. Boutros O6 Single cell allele specific expression (ASE) IN T21 and common trisomies: a novel approach to understand DOWN syndrome and other aneuploidies G. Stamoulis, F. Santoni, P. Makrythanasis, A. Letourneau, M. Guipponi, N. Panousis, M. Garieri, P. Ribaux, E. Falconnet, C. Borel, S. E. Antonarakis O7 Role of microRNA in LCL to IPSC reprogramming S. Kumar, J. Curran, J. Blangero O8 Multiple enhancer variants disrupt gene regulatory network in Hirschsprung disease S. Chatterjee, A. Kapoor, J. Akiyama, D. Auer, C. Berrios, L. Pennacchio, A. Chakravarti O9 Metabolomic profiling for the diagnosis of neurometabolic disorders T. R. Donti, G. Cappuccio, M. Miller, P. Atwal, A. Kennedy, A. Cardon, C. Bacino, L. Emrick, J. Hertecant, F. Baumer, B. Porter, M. Bainbridge, P. Bonnen, B. Graham, R. Sutton, Q. Sun, S. Elsea O10 A novel causal methylation network approach to Alzheimer’s disease Z. Hu, P. Wang, Y. Zhu, J. Zhao, M. Xiong, David A Bennett O11 A microRNA signature identifies subtypes of triple-negative breast cancer and reveals MIR-342-3P as regulator of a lactate metabolic pathway A. Hidalgo-Miranda, S. Romero-Cordoba, S. Rodriguez-Cuevas, R. Rebollar-Vega, E. Tagliabue, M. Iorio, E. D’Ippolito, S. Baroni O12 Transcriptome analysis identifies genes, enhancer RNAs and repetitive elements that are recurrently deregulated across multiple cancer types B. Kaczkowski, Y. Tanaka, H. Kawaji, A. Sandelin, R. Andersson, M. Itoh, T. Lassmann, the FANTOM5 consortium, Y. Hayashizaki, P. Carninci, A. R. R. Forrest O13 Elevated mutation and widespread loss of constraint at regulatory and architectural binding sites across 11 tumour types C. A. Semple O14 Exome sequencing provides evidence of pathogenicity for genes implicated in colorectal cancer E. A. Rosenthal, B. Shirts, L. Amendola, C. Gallego, M. Horike-Pyne, A. Burt, P. Robertson, P. Beyers, C. Nefcy, D. Veenstra, F. Hisama, R. Bennett, M. Dorschner, D. Nickerson, J. Smith, K. Patterson, D. Crosslin, R. Nassir, N. Zubair, T. Harrison, U. Peters, G. Jarvik, NHLBI GO Exome Sequencing Project O15 The tandem duplicator phenotype as a distinct genomic configuration in cancer F. Menghi, K. Inaki, X. Woo, P. Kumar, K. Grzeda, A. Malhotra, H. Kim, D. Ucar, P. Shreckengast, K. Karuturi, J. Keck, J. Chuang, E. T. Liu O16 Modeling genetic interactions associated with molecular subtypes of breast cancer B. Ji, A. Tyler, G. Ananda, G. Carter O17 Recurrent somatic mutation in the MYC associated factor X in brain tumors H. Nikbakht, M. Montagne, M. Zeinieh, A. Harutyunyan, M. Mcconechy, N. Jabado, P. Lavigne, J. Majewski O18 Predictive biomarkers to metastatic pancreatic cancer treatment J. B. Goldstein, M. Overman, G. Varadhachary, R. Shroff, R. Wolff, M. Javle, A. Futreal, D. Fogelman O19 DDIT4 gene expression as a prognostic marker in several malignant tumors L. Bravo, W. Fajardo, H. Gomez, C. Castaneda, C. Rolfo, J. A. Pinto O20 Spatial organization of the genome and genomic alterations in human cancers K. C. Akdemir, L. Chin, A. Futreal, ICGC PCAWG Structural Alterations Group O21 Landscape of targeted therapies in solid tumors S. Patterson, C. Statz, S. Mockus O22 Genomic analysis reveals novel drivers and progression pathways in skin basal cell carcinoma S. N. Nikolaev, X. I. Bonilla, L. Parmentier, B. King, F. Bezrukov, G. Kaya, V. Zoete, V. Seplyarskiy, H. Sharpe, T. McKee, A. Letourneau, P. Ribaux, K. Popadin, N. Basset-Seguin, R. Ben Chaabene, F. Santoni, M. Andrianova, M. Guipponi, M. Garieri, C. Verdan, K. Grosdemange, O. Sumara, M. Eilers, I. Aifantis, O. Michielin, F. de Sauvage, S. Antonarakis O23 Identification of differential biomarkers of hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma via transcriptome microarray meta-analysis S. Likhitrattanapisal O24 Clinical validity and actionability of multigene tests for hereditary cancers in a large multi-center study S. Lincoln, A. Kurian, A. Desmond, S. Yang, Y. Kobayashi, J. Ford, L. Ellisen O25 Correlation with tumor ploidy status is essential for correct determination of genome-wide copy number changes by SNP array T. L. Peters, K. R. Alvarez, E. F. Hollingsworth, D. H. Lopez-Terrada O26 Nanochannel based next-generation mapping for interrogation of clinically relevant structural variation A. Hastie, Z. Dzakula, A. W. Pang, E. T. Lam, T. Anantharaman, M. Saghbini, H. Cao, BioNano Genomics O27 Mutation spectrum in a pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) cohort and identification of associated truncating mutations in TBX4 C. Gonzaga-Jauregui, L. Ma, A. King, E. Berman Rosenzweig, U. Krishnan, J. G. Reid, J. D. Overton, F. Dewey, W. K. Chung O28 NORTH CAROLINA macular dystrophy (MCDR1): mutations found affecting PRDM13 K. Small, A. DeLuca, F. Cremers, R. A. Lewis, V. Puech, B. Bakall, R. Silva-Garcia, K. Rohrschneider, M. Leys, F. S. Shaya, E. Stone O29 PhenoDB and genematcher, solving unsolved whole exome sequencing data N. L. Sobreira, F. Schiettecatte, H. Ling, E. Pugh, D. Witmer, K. Hetrick, P. Zhang, K. Doheny, D. Valle, A. Hamosh O30 Baylor-Johns Hopkins Center for Mendelian genomics: a four year review S. N. Jhangiani, Z. Coban Akdemir, M. N. Bainbridge, W. Charng, W. Wiszniewski, T. Gambin, E. Karaca, Y. Bayram, M. K. Eldomery, J. Posey, H. Doddapaneni, J. Hu, V. R. Sutton, D. M. Muzny, E. A. Boerwinkle, D. Valle, J. R. Lupski, R. A. Gibbs O31 Using read overlap assembly to accurately identify structural genetic differences in an ashkenazi jewish trio S. Shekar, W. Salerno, A. English, A. Mangubat, J. Bruestle O32 Legal interoperability: a sine qua non for international data sharing A. Thorogood, B. M. Knoppers, Global Alliance for Genomics and Health - Regulatory and Ethics Working Group O33 High throughput screening platform of competent sineups: that can enhance translation activities of therapeutic target H. Takahashi, K. R. Nitta, A. Kozhuharova, A. M. Suzuki, H. Sharma, D. Cotella, C. Santoro, S. Zucchelli, S. Gustincich, P. Carninci O34 The undiagnosed diseases network international (UDNI): clinical and laboratory research to meet patient needs J. J. Mulvihill, G. Baynam, W. Gahl, S. C. Groft, K. Kosaki, P. Lasko, B. Melegh, D. Taruscio O36 Performance of computational algorithms in pathogenicity predictions for activating variants in oncogenes versus loss of function mutations in tumor suppressor genes R. Ghosh, S. Plon O37 Identification and electronic health record incorporation of clinically actionable pharmacogenomic variants using prospective targeted sequencing S. Scherer, X. Qin, R. Sanghvi, K. Walker, T. Chiang, D. Muzny, L. Wang, J. Black, E. Boerwinkle, R. Weinshilboum, R. Gibbs O38 Melanoma reprogramming state correlates with response to CTLA-4 blockade in metastatic melanoma T. Karpinets, T. Calderone, K. Wani, X. Yu, C. Creasy, C. Haymaker, M. Forget, V. Nanda, J. Roszik, J. Wargo, L. Haydu, X. Song, A. Lazar, J. Gershenwald, M. Davies, C. Bernatchez, J. Zhang, A. Futreal, S. Woodman O39 Data-driven refinement of complex disease classification from integration of heterogeneous functional genomics data in GeneWeaver E. J. Chesler, T. Reynolds, J. A. Bubier, C. Phillips, M. A. Langston, E. J. Baker O40 A general statistic framework for genome-based disease risk prediction M. Xiong, L. Ma, N. Lin, C. Amos O41 Integrative large-scale causal network analysis of imaging and genomic data and its application in schizophrenia studies N. Lin, P. Wang, Y. Zhu, J. Zhao, V. Calhoun, M. Xiong O42 Big data and NGS data analysis: the cloud to the rescue O. Dobretsberger, M. Egger, F. Leimgruber O43 Cpipe: a convergent clinical exome pipeline specialised for targeted sequencing S. Sadedin, A. Oshlack, Melbourne Genomics Health Alliance O44 A Bayesian classification of biomedical images using feature extraction from deep neural networks implemented on lung cancer data V. A. A. Antonio, N. Ono, Clark Kendrick C. Go O45 MAV-SEQ: an interactive platform for the Management, Analysis, and Visualization of sequence data Z. Ahmed, M. Bolisetty, S. Zeeshan, E. Anguiano, D. Ucar O47 Allele specific enhancer in EPAS1 intronic regions may contribute to high altitude adaptation of Tibetans C. Zeng, J. Shao O48 Nanochannel based next-generation mapping for structural variation detection and comparison in trios and populations H. Cao, A. Hastie, A. W. Pang, E. T. Lam, T. Liang, K. Pham, M. Saghbini, Z. Dzakula O49 Archaic introgression in indigenous populations of Malaysia revealed by whole genome sequencing Y. Chee-Wei, L. Dongsheng, W. Lai-Ping, D. Lian, R. O. Twee Hee, Y. Yunus, F. Aghakhanian, S. S. Mokhtar, C. V. Lok-Yung, J. Bhak, M. Phipps, X. Shuhua, T. Yik-Ying, V. Kumar, H. Boon-Peng O50 Breast and ovarian cancer prevention: is it time for population-based mutation screening of high risk genes? I. Campbell, M.-A. Young, P. James, Lifepool O53 Comprehensive coverage from low DNA input using novel NGS library preparation methods for WGS and WGBS C. Schumacher, S. Sandhu, T. Harkins, V. Makarov O54 Methods for large scale construction of robust PCR-free libraries for sequencing on Illumina HiSeqX platform H. DoddapaneniR. Glenn, Z. Momin, B. Dilrukshi, H. Chao, Q. Meng, B. Gudenkauf, R. Kshitij, J. Jayaseelan, C. Nessner, S. Lee, K. Blankenberg, L. Lewis, J. Hu, Y. Han, H. Dinh, S. Jireh, K. Walker, E. Boerwinkle, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs O55 Rapid capture methods for clinical sequencing J. Hu, K. Walker, C. Buhay, X. Liu, Q. Wang, R. Sanghvi, H. Doddapaneni, Y. Ding, N. Veeraraghavan, Y. Yang, E. Boerwinkle, A. L. Beaudet, C. M. Eng, D. M. Muzny, R. A. Gibbs O56 A diploid personal human genome model for better genomes from diverse sequence data K. C. C. Worley, Y. Liu, D. S. T. Hughes, S. C. Murali, R. A. Harris, A. C. English, X. Qin, O. A. Hampton, P. Larsen, C. Beck, Y. Han, M. Wang, H. Doddapaneni, C. L. Kovar, W. J. Salerno, A. Yoder, S. Richards, J. Rogers, J. R. Lupski, D. M. Muzny, R. A. Gibbs O57 Development of PacBio long range capture for detection of pathogenic structural variants Q. Meng, M. Bainbridge, M. Wang, H. Doddapaneni, Y. Han, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs O58 Rhesus macaques exhibit more non-synonymous variation but greater impact of purifying selection than humans R. A. Harris, M. Raveenedran, C. Xue, M. Dahdouli, L. Cox, G. Fan, B. Ferguson, J. Hovarth, Z. Johnson, S. Kanthaswamy, M. Kubisch, M. Platt, D. Smith, E. Vallender, R. Wiseman, X. Liu, J. Below, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs, F. Yu, J. Rogers O59 Assessing RNA structure disruption induced by single-nucleotide variation J. Lin, Y. Zhang, Z. Ouyang P1 A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of mitochondrial dna copy number A. Moore, Z. Wang, J. Hofmann, M. Purdue, R. Stolzenberg-Solomon, S. Weinstein, D. Albanes, C.-S. Liu, W.-L. Cheng, T.-T. Lin, Q. Lan, N. Rothman, S. Berndt P2 Missense polymorphic genetic combinations underlying down syndrome susceptibility E. S. Chen P4 The evaluation of alteration of ELAM-1 expression in the endometriosis patients H. Bahrami, A. Khoshzaban, S. Heidari Keshal P5 Obesity and the incidence of apolipoprotein E polymorphisms in an assorted population from Saudi Arabia population K. K. R. Alharbi P6 Genome-associated personalized antithrombotical therapy for patients with high risk of thrombosis and bleeding M. Zhalbinova, A. Akilzhanova, S. Rakhimova, M. Bekbosynova, S. Myrzakhmetova P7 Frequency of Xmn1 polymorphism among sickle cell carrier cases in UAE population M. Matar P8 Differentiating inflammatory bowel diseases by using genomic data: dimension of the problem and network organization N. Mili, R. Molinari, Y. Ma, S. Guerrier P9 Vulnerability of genetic variants to the risk of autism among Saudi children N. Elhawary, M. Tayeb, N. Bogari, N. Qotb P10 Chromatin profiles from ex vivo purified dopaminergic neurons establish a promising model to support studies of neurological function and dysfunction S. A. McClymont, P. W. Hook, L. A. Goff, A. McCallion P11 Utilization of a sensitized chemical mutagenesis screen to identify genetic modifiers of retinal dysplasia in homozygous Nr2e3rd7 mice Y. Kong, J. R. Charette, W. L. Hicks, J. K. Naggert, L. Zhao, P. M. Nishina P12 Ion torrent next generation sequencing of recessive polycystic kidney disease in Saudi patients B. M. Edrees, M. Athar, F. A. Al-Allaf, M. M. Taher, W. Khan, A. Bouazzaoui, N. A. Harbi, R. Safar, H. Al-Edressi, A. Anazi, N. Altayeb, M. A. Ahmed, K. Alansary, Z. Abduljaleel P13 Digital expression profiling of Purkinje neurons and dendrites in different subcellular compartments A. Kratz, P. Beguin, S. Poulain, M. Kaneko, C. Takahiko, A. Matsunaga, S. Kato, A. M. Suzuki, N. Bertin, T. Lassmann, R. Vigot, P. Carninci, C. Plessy, T. Launey P14 The evolution of imperfection and imperfection of evolution: the functional and functionless fractions of the human genome D. Graur P16 Species-independent identification of known and novel recurrent genomic entities in multiple cancer patients J. Friis-Nielsen, J. M. Izarzugaza, S. Brunak P18 Discovery of active gene modules which are densely conserved across multiple cancer types reveal their prognostic power and mutually exclusive mutation patterns B. S. Soibam P19 Whole exome sequencing of dysplastic leukoplakia tissue indicates sequential accumulation of somatic mutations from oral precancer to cancer D. Das, N. Biswas, S. Das, S. Sarkar, A. Maitra, C. Panda, P. Majumder P21 Epigenetic mechanisms of carcinogensis by hereditary breast cancer genes J. J. Gruber, N. Jaeger, M. Snyder P22 RNA direct: a novel RNA enrichment strategy applied to transcripts associated with solid tumors K. Patel, S. Bowman, T. Davis, D. Kraushaar, A. Emerman, S. Russello, N. Henig, C. Hendrickson P23 RNA sequencing identifies gene mutations for neuroblastoma K. Zhang P24 Participation of SFRP1 in the modulation of TMPRSS2-ERG fusion gene in prostate cancer cell lines M. Rodriguez-Dorantes, C. D. Cruz-Hernandez, C. D. P. Garcia-Tobilla, S. Solorzano-Rosales P25 Targeted Methylation Sequencing of Prostate Cancer N. Jäger, J. Chen, R. Haile, M. Hitchins, J. D. Brooks, M. Snyder P26 Mutant TPMT alleles in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia from México City and Yucatán, Mexico S. Jiménez-Morales, M. Ramírez, J. Nuñez, V. Bekker, Y. Leal, E. Jiménez, A. Medina, A. Hidalgo, J. Mejía P28 Genetic modifiers of Alström syndrome J. Naggert, G. B. Collin, K. DeMauro, R. Hanusek, P. M. Nishina P31 Association of genomic variants with the occurrence of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)-induced coughing among Filipinos E. M. Cutiongco De La Paz, R. Sy, J. Nevado, P. Reganit, L. Santos, J. D. Magno, F. E. Punzalan , D. Ona , E. Llanes, R. L. Santos-Cortes , R. Tiongco, J. Aherrera, L. Abrahan, P. Pagauitan-Alan; Philippine Cardiogenomics Study Group P32 The use of “humanized” mouse models to validate disease association of a de novo GARS variant and to test a novel gene therapy strategy for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 2D K. H. Morelli, J. S. Domire, N. Pyne, S. Harper, R. Burgess P34 Molecular regulation of chondrogenic human induced pluripotent stem cells M. A. Gari, A. Dallol, H. Alsehli, A. Gari, M. Gari, A. Abuzenadah P35 Molecular profiling of hematologic malignancies: implementation of a variant assessment algorithm for next generation sequencing data analysis and clinical reporting M. Thomas, M. Sukhai, S. Garg, M. Misyura, T. Zhang, A. Schuh, T. Stockley, S. Kamel-Reid P36 Accessing genomic evidence for clinical variants at NCBI S. Sherry, C. Xiao, D. Slotta, K. Rodarmer, M. Feolo, M. Kimelman, G. Godynskiy, C. O’Sullivan, E. Yaschenko P37 NGS-SWIFT: a cloud-based variant analysis framework using control-accessed sequencing data from DBGAP/SRA C. Xiao, E. Yaschenko, S. Sherry P38 Computational assessment of drug induced hepatotoxicity through gene expression profiling C. Rangel-Escareño, H. Rueda-Zarate P40 Flowr: robust and efficient pipelines using a simple language-agnostic approach;ultraseq; fast modular pipeline for somatic variation calling using flowr S. Seth, S. Amin, X. Song, X. Mao, H. Sun, R. G. Verhaak, A. Futreal, J. Zhang P41 Applying “Big data” technologies to the rapid analysis of heterogenous large cohort data S. J. Whiite, T. Chiang, A. English, J. Farek, Z. Kahn, W. Salerno, N. Veeraraghavan, E. Boerwinkle, R. Gibbs P42 FANTOM5 web resource for the large-scale genome-wide transcription start site activity profiles of wide-range of mammalian cells T. Kasukawa, M. Lizio, J. Harshbarger, S. Hisashi, J. Severin, A. Imad, S. Sahin, T. C. Freeman, K. Baillie, A. Sandelin, P. Carninci, A. R. R. Forrest, H. Kawaji, The FANTOM Consortium P43 Rapid and scalable typing of structural variants for disease cohorts W. Salerno, A. English, S. N. Shekar, A. Mangubat, J. Bruestle, E. Boerwinkle, R. A. Gibbs P44 Polymorphism of glutathione S-transferases and sulphotransferases genes in an Arab population A. H. Salem, M. Ali, A. Ibrahim, M. Ibrahim P46 Genetic divergence of CYP3A5*3 pharmacogenomic marker for native and admixed Mexican populations J. C. Fernandez-Lopez, V. Bonifaz-Peña, C. Rangel-Escareño, A. Hidalgo-Miranda, A. V. Contreras P47 Whole exome sequence meta-analysis of 13 white blood cell, red blood cell, and platelet traits L. Polfus, CHARGE and NHLBI Exome Sequence Project Working Groups P48 Association of adipoq gene with type 2 diabetes and related phenotypes in african american men and women: The jackson heart study S. Davis, R. Xu, S. Gebeab, P Riestra, A Gaye, R. Khan, J. Wilson, A. Bidulescu P49 Common variants in casr gene are associated with serum calcium levels in koreans S. H. Jung, N. Vinayagamoorthy, S. H. Yim, Y. J. Chung P50 Inference of multiple-wave population admixture by modeling decay of linkage disequilibrium with multiple exponential functions Y. Zhou, S. Xu P51 A Bayesian framework for generalized linear mixed models in genome-wide association studies X. Wang, V. Philip, G. Carter P52 Targeted sequencing approach for the identification of the genetic causes of hereditary hearing impairment A. A. Abuzenadah, M. Gari, R. Turki, A. Dallol P53 Identification of enhancer sequences by ATAC-seq open chromatin profiling A. Uyar, A. Kaygun, S. Zaman, E. Marquez, J. George, D. Ucar P54 Direct enrichment for the rapid preparation of targeted NGS libraries C. L. Hendrickson, A. Emerman, D. Kraushaar, S. Bowman, N. Henig, T. Davis, S. Russello, K. Patel P56 Performance of the Agilent D5000 and High Sensitivity D5000 ScreenTape assays for the Agilent 4200 Tapestation System R. Nitsche, L. Prieto-Lafuente P57 ClinVar: a multi-source archive for variant interpretation M. Landrum, J. Lee, W. Rubinstein, D. Maglott P59 Association of functional variants and protein physical interactions of human MUTY homolog linked with familial adenomatous polyposis and colorectal cancer syndrome Z. Abduljaleel, W. Khan, F. A. Al-Allaf, M. Athar , M. M. Taher, N. Shahzad P60 Modification of the microbiom constitution in the gut using chicken IgY antibodies resulted in a reduction of acute graft-versus-host disease after experimental bone marrow transplantation A. Bouazzaoui, E. Huber, A. Dan, F. A. Al-Allaf, W. Herr, G. Sprotte, J. Köstler, A. Hiergeist, A. Gessner, R. Andreesen, E. Holler P61 Compound heterozygous mutation in the LDLR gene in Saudi patients suffering severe hypercholesterolemia F. Al-Allaf, A. Alashwal, Z. Abduljaleel, M. Taher, A. Bouazzaoui, H. Abalkhail, A. Al-Allaf, R. Bamardadh, M. Atha

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Global estimates on the number of people blind or visually impaired by cataract: a meta-analysis from 2000 to 2020

Background: To estimate global and regional trends from 2000 to 2020 of the number of persons visually impaired by cataract and their proportion of the total number of vision-impaired individuals. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published population studies and gray literature from 2000 to 2020 was carried out to estimate global and regional trends. We developed prevalence estimates based on modeled distance visual impairment and blindness due to cataract, producing location-, year-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of moderate to severe vision impairment (MSVI presenting visual acuity &lt;6/18, ≥3/60) and blindness (presenting visual acuity &lt;3/60). Estimates are age-standardized using the GBD standard population. Results: In 2020, among overall (all ages) 43.3 million blind and 295 million with MSVI, 17.0 million (39.6%) people were blind and 83.5 million (28.3%) had MSVI due to cataract blind 60% female, MSVI 59% female. From 1990 to 2020, the count of persons blind (MSVI) due to cataract increased by 29.7%(93.1%) whereas the age-standardized global prevalence of cataract-related blindness improved by −27.5% and MSVI increased by 7.2%. The contribution of cataract to the age-standardized prevalence of blindness exceeded the global figure only in South Asia (62.9%) and Southeast Asia and Oceania (47.9%). Conclusions: The number of people blind and with MSVI due to cataract has risen over the past 30 years, despite a decrease in the age-standardized prevalence of cataract. This indicates that cataract treatment programs have been beneficial, but population growth and aging have outpaced their impact. Growing numbers of cataract blind indicate that more, better-directed, resources are needed to increase global capacity for cataract surgery.</p

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation