Distributed global debris thickness estimates reveal debris significantly impacts glacier mass balance

International audienc

Results of the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)

Next-generation surveys like the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (Rubin) will generate orders of magnitude more discoveries of transients and variable stars than previous surveys. To prepare for this data deluge, we developed the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a competition that aimed to catalyze the development of robust classifiers under LSST-like conditions of a nonrepresentative training set for a large photometric test set of imbalanced classes. Over 1000 teams participated in PLAsTiCC, which was hosted in the Kaggle data science competition platform between 2018 September 28 and 2018 December 17, ultimately identifying three winners in 2019 February. Participants produced classifiers employing a diverse set of machine-learning techniques including hybrid combinations and ensemble averages of a range of approaches, among them boosted decision trees, neural networks, and multilayer perceptrons. The strong performance of the top three classifiers on Type Ia supernovae and kilonovae represent a major improvement over the current state of the art within astronomy. This paper summarizes the most promising methods and evaluates their results in detail, highlighting future directions both for classifier development and simulation needs for a next-generation PLAsTiCC data set

Performance Assessment in Fingerprinting and Multi Component Quantitative NMR Analyses

An interlaboratory comparison (ILC) was organized with the aim to set up quality control indicators suitable for multicomponent quantitative analysis by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. A total of 36 NMR data sets (corresponding to 1260 NMR spectra) were produced by 30 participants using 34 NMR spectrometers. The calibration line method was chosen for the quantification of a five-component model mixture. Results show that quantitative NMR is a robust quantification tool and that 26 out of 36 data sets resulted in statistically equivalent calibration lines for all considered NMR signals. The performance of each laboratory was assessed by means of a new performance index (named Qp-score) which is related to the difference between the experimental and the consensus values of the slope of the calibration lines. Laboratories endowed with a Qp-score falling within the suitable acceptability range are qualified to produce NMR spectra that can be considered statistically equivalent in terms of relative intensities of the signals. In addition, the specific response of nuclei to the experimental excitation/relaxation conditions was addressed by means of the parameter named NR. NR is related to the difference between the theoretical and the consensus slopes of the calibration lines and is specific for each signal produced by a well-defined set of acquisition parameters

The Wor1-like Protein Fgp1 Regulates Pathogenicity, Toxin Synthesis and Reproduction in the Phytopathogenic Fungus Fusarium graminearum

WOR1 is a gene for a conserved fungal regulatory protein controlling the dimorphic switch and pathogenicity determents in Candida albicans and its ortholog in the plant pathogen Fusarium oxysporum, called SGE1, is required for pathogenicity and expression of key plant effector proteins. F. graminearum, an important pathogen of cereals, is not known to employ switching and no effector proteins from F. graminearum have been found to date that are required for infection. In this study, the potential role of the WOR1-like gene in pathogenesis was tested in this toxigenic fungus. Deletion of the WOR1 ortholog (called FGP1) in F. graminearum results in greatly reduced pathogenicity and loss of trichothecene toxin accumulation in infected wheat plants and in vitro. The loss of toxin accumulation alone may be sufficient to explain the loss of pathogenicity to wheat. Under toxin-inducing conditions, expression of genes for trichothecene biosynthesis and many other genes are not detected or detected at lower levels in Δfgp1 strains. FGP1 is also involved in the developmental processes of conidium formation and sexual reproduction and modulates a morphological change that accompanies mycotoxin production in vitro. The Wor1-like proteins in Fusarium species have highly conserved N-terminal regions and remarkably divergent C-termini. Interchanging the N- and C- terminal portions of proteins from F. oxysporum and F. graminearum resulted in partial to complete loss of function. Wor1-like proteins are conserved but have evolved to regulate pathogenicity in a range of fungi, likely by adaptations to the C-terminal portion of the protein

Refining value-at-risk estimates using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH copula-EVT model

In this paper, we propose a model for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model with skewed Student’s-t innovation, copula functions and extreme value theory. A Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) model that identifies non-constant volatility over time and allows the GARCH parameters to vary over time following a Markov process, is combined with copula functions and EVT to formulate the Bayesian Markov-switching GJR-GARCH(1,1) copula-EVT VaR model, which is then used to forecast the level of risk on financial asset returns. We further propose a new method for threshold selection in EVT analysis, which we term the hybrid method. Empirical and back-testing results show that the proposed VaR models capture VaR reasonably well in periods of calm and in periods of crisis

Science-Driven Optimization of the LSST Observing Strategy

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope is designed to provide an unprecedented optical imaging dataset that will support investigations of our Solar System, Galaxy and Universe, across half the sky and over ten years of repeated observation. However, exactly how the LSST observations will be taken (the observing strategy or "cadence") is not yet finalized. In this dynamically-evolving community white paper, we explore how the detailed performance of the anticipated science investigations is expected to depend on small changes to the LSST observing strategy. Using realistic simulations of the LSST schedule and observation properties, we design and compute diagnostic metrics and Figures of Merit that provide quantitative evaluations of different observing strategies, analyzing their impact on a wide range of proposed science projects. This is work in progress: we are using this white paper to communicate to each other the relative merits of the observing strategy choices that could be made, in an effort to maximize the scientific value of the survey. The investigation of some science cases leads to suggestions for new strategies that could be simulated and potentially adopted. Notably, we find motivation for exploring departures from a spatially uniform annual tiling of the sky: focusing instead on different parts of the survey area in different years in a "rolling cadence" is likely to have significant benefits for a number of time domain and moving object astronomy projects. The communal assembly of a suite of quantified and homogeneously coded metrics is the vital first step towards an automated, systematic, science-based assessment of any given cadence simulation, that will enable the scheduling of the LSST to be as well-informed as possible