Test Population Selection from Weibull-Based, Monte Carlo Simulations of Fatigue Life

Fatigue life is probabilistic and not deterministic. Experimentally establishing the fatigue life of materials, components, and systems is both time consuming and costly. As a result, conclusions regarding fatigue life are often inferred from a statistically insufficient number of physical tests. A proposed methodology for comparing life results as a function of variability due to Weibull parameters, variability between successive trials, and variability due to size of the experimental population is presented. Using Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives from a large Weibull distribution, the variation in the L10 fatigue life of aluminum alloy AL6061 rotating rod fatigue tests was determined as a function of population size. These results were compared to the L10 fatigue lives of small (10 each) populations from AL2024, AL7075 and AL6061. For aluminum alloy AL6061, a simple algebraic relationship was established for the upper and lower L10 fatigue life limits as a function of the number of specimens failed. For most engineering applications where less than 30 percent variability can be tolerated in the maximum and minimum values, at least 30 to 35 test samples are necessary. The variability of test results based on small sample sizes can be greater than actual differences, if any, that exists between materials and can result in erroneous conclusions. The fatigue life of AL2024 is statistically longer than AL6061 and AL7075. However, there is no statistical difference between the fatigue lives of AL6061 and AL7075 even though AL7075 had a fatigue life 30 percent greater than AL6061

BASEL III: Long-term impact on economic performance and fluctuations

We assess the long-term economic impact of the new regulatory standards (the Basel III reform), answering the following questions. (1) What is the impact of the reform on long-term economic performance? (2) What is the impact of the reform on economic fluctuations? (3) What is the impact of the adoption of countercyclical capital buffers on economic fluctuations? The main results are the following. (1) Each percentage point increase in the capital ratio causes a median 0.09 percent decline in the level of steady state output, relative to the baseline. The impact of the new liquidity regulation is of a similar order of magnitude, at 0.08 percent. This paper does not estimate the benefits of the new regulation in terms of reduced frequency and severity of financial crisis, analysed in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010b). (2) The reform should dampen output volatility; the magnitude of the effect is heterogeneous across models; the median effect is modest. (3) The adoption of countercyclical capital buffers could have a more sizeable dampening effect on output volatility. These conclusions are fully consistent with those of the reports by the Long-term Economic Impact group (BCBS, 2010b) and Macro Assessment Group (MAG, 2010b).Basel III, countercyclical capital buffers, financial (in)stability, procyclicality, macroprudential policy.

Preserving Differential Privacy in Convolutional Deep Belief Networks

The remarkable development of deep learning in medicine and healthcare domain presents obvious privacy issues, when deep neural networks are built on users' personal and highly sensitive data, e.g., clinical records, user profiles, biomedical images, etc. However, only a few scientific studies on preserving privacy in deep learning have been conducted. In this paper, we focus on developing a private convolutional deep belief network (pCDBN), which essentially is a convolutional deep belief network (CDBN) under differential privacy. Our main idea of enforcing epsilon-differential privacy is to leverage the functional mechanism to perturb the energy-based objective functions of traditional CDBNs, rather than their results. One key contribution of this work is that we propose the use of Chebyshev expansion to derive the approximate polynomial representation of objective functions. Our theoretical analysis shows that we can further derive the sensitivity and error bounds of the approximate polynomial representation. As a result, preserving differential privacy in CDBNs is feasible. We applied our model in a health social network, i.e., YesiWell data, and in a handwriting digit dataset, i.e., MNIST data, for human behavior prediction, human behavior classification, and handwriting digit recognition tasks. Theoretical analysis and rigorous experimental evaluations show that the pCDBN is highly effective. It significantly outperforms existing solutions

The effect of changing the magnetic field strength on HiPIMS deposition rates

The marked difference in behaviour between HiPIMS and conventional dc or pulsed-dc magnetron sputtering discharges with changing magnetic field strengths is demonstrated through measurements of deposition rate. To provide a comparison between techniques the same circular magnetron was operated in the three excitation modes at a fixed average power of 680 W and a pressure of 0.54 Pa in the non-reactive sputtering of titanium. The total magnetic field strength B at the cathode surface in the middle of the racetrack was varied from 195 to 380 G. DC and pulsed-dc discharges show the expected behaviour that deposition rates fall with decreasing B (here by ~25–40%), however the opposite trend is observed in HiPIMS with deposition rates rising by a factor of 2 over the same decrease in B. These observations are understood from the stand point of the different composition and transport processes of the depositing metal flux between the techniques. In HiPIMS, this flux is largely ionic and slow post-ionized sputtered particles are subject to strong back attraction to the target by a retarding plasma potential structure ahead of them. The height of this potential barrier is known to increase with increasing B. From a simple phenomenological model of the sputtered particles fluxes, and using the measured deposition rates from the different techniques as inputs, the combined probabilities of ionization, α, and back attraction, β, of the metal species in HiPIMS has been calculated. There is a clear fall in αβ (from ~0.9 to ~0.7) with decreasing B-field strengths, we argue primarily due to a weakening of electrostatic ion back attraction, so leading to higher deposition rates. The results indicate that careful design of magnetron field strengths should be considered to optimise HiPIMS deposition rates

Diagnostic relevance of spatial orientation for vascular dementia: A case study

Background: Spatial orientation is emerging as an early and reliable cognitive biomarker of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathophysiology. However, no evidence exists as to whether spatial orientation is also affected in vascular dementia (VaD). Objective: To examine allocentric (map-based) and egocentric (viewpoint-based) spatial orientation in an early stage VaD case. Methods: A spatial test battery was administered following clinical and neuropsychological cognitive evaluation. Results: Despite the patient’s complaints, little evidence of episodic memory deficits were detected when cueing was provided to overcome executive dysfunction. Similarly, medial temporal lobe-mediated allocentric orientation was intact. By contrast, medial parietal-mediated egocentric orientation was impaired, despite normal performance on standard visuospatial tasks. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first in-depth investigation of spatial orientation deficits in VaD. Isolated egocentric deficits were observed. This differs from AD orientation deficits which encompass both allocentric and egocentric orientation deficits. A combination of egocentric orientation and executive function tests could serve as a promising cognitive marker for VaD pathophysiology

Determination of Turbine Blade Life from Engine Field Data

It is probable that no two engine companies determine the life of their engines or their components in the same way or apply the same experience and safety factors to their designs. Knowing the failure mode that is most likely to occur minimizes the amount of uncertainty and simplifies failure and life analysis. Available data regarding failure mode for aircraft engine blades, while favoring low-cycle, thermal mechanical fatigue as the controlling mode of failure, are not definitive. Sixteen high-pressure turbine (HPT) T-1 blade sets were removed from commercial aircraft engines that had been commercially flown by a single airline and inspected for damage. Each set contained 82 blades. The damage was cataloged into three categories related to their mode of failure: (1) Thermal-mechanical fatigue, (2) Oxidation/Erosion, and (3) "Other." From these field data, the turbine blade life was determined as well as the lives related to individual blade failure modes using Johnson-Weibull analysis. A simplified formula for calculating turbine blade life and reliability was formulated. The L(sub 10) blade life was calculated to be 2427 cycles (11 077 hr). The resulting blade life attributed to oxidation/erosion equaled that attributed to thermal-mechanical fatigue. The category that contributed most to blade failure was Other. If there were there no blade failures attributed to oxidation/erosion and thermal-mechanical fatigue, the overall blade L(sub 10) life would increase approximately 11 to 17 percent

Gravitational Waves From Known Pulsars: Results From The Initial Detector Era

We present the results of searches for gravitational waves from a large selection of pulsars using data from the most recent science runs (S6, VSR2 and VSR4) of the initial generation of interferometric gravitational wave detectors LIGO (Laser Interferometric Gravitational-wave Observatory) and Virgo. We do not see evidence for gravitational wave emission from any of the targeted sources but produce upper limits on the emission amplitude. We highlight the results from seven young pulsars with large spin-down luminosities. We reach within a factor of five of the canonical spin-down limit for all seven of these, whilst for the Crab and Vela pulsars we further surpass their spin-down limits. We present new or updated limits for 172 other pulsars (including both young and millisecond pulsars). Now that the detectors are undergoing major upgrades, and, for completeness, we bring together all of the most up-to-date results from all pulsars searched for during the operations of the first-generation LIGO, Virgo and GEO600 detectors. This gives a total of 195 pulsars including the most recent results described in this paper.United States National Science FoundationScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomMax-Planck-SocietyState of Niedersachsen/GermanyAustralian Research CouncilInternational Science Linkages program of the Commonwealth of AustraliaCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research of IndiaIstituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare of ItalySpanish Ministerio de Economia y CompetitividadConselleria d'Economia Hisenda i Innovacio of the Govern de les Illes BalearsNetherlands Organisation for Scientific ResearchPolish Ministry of Science and Higher EducationFOCUS Programme of Foundation for Polish ScienceRoyal SocietyScottish Funding CouncilScottish Universities Physics AllianceNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationOTKA of HungaryLyon Institute of Origins (LIO)National Research Foundation of KoreaIndustry CanadaProvince of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and InnovationNational Science and Engineering Research Council CanadaCarnegie TrustLeverhulme TrustDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationResearch CorporationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationAstronom

A search for point sources of EeV photons

Measurements of air showers made using the hybrid technique developed with the fluorescence and surface detectors of the Pierre Auger Observatory allow a sensitive search for point sources of EeV photons anywhere in the exposed sky. A multivariate analysis reduces the background of hadronic cosmic rays. The search is sensitive to a declination band from -85{\deg} to +20{\deg}, in an energy range from 10^17.3 eV to 10^18.5 eV. No photon point source has been detected. An upper limit on the photon flux has been derived for every direction. The mean value of the energy flux limit that results from this, assuming a photon spectral index of -2, is 0.06 eV cm^-2 s^-1, and no celestial direction exceeds 0.25 eV cm^-2 s^-1. These upper limits constrain scenarios in which EeV cosmic ray protons are emitted by non-transient sources in the Galaxy.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

Reconstruction of inclined air showers detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

We describe the method devised to reconstruct inclined cosmic-ray air showers with zenith angles greater than $60^\circ$ detected with the surface array of the Pierre Auger Observatory. The measured signals at the ground level are fitted to muon density distributions predicted with atmospheric cascade models to obtain the relative shower size as an overall normalization parameter. The method is evaluated using simulated showers to test its performance. The energy of the cosmic rays is calibrated using a sub-sample of events reconstructed with both the fluorescence and surface array techniques. The reconstruction method described here provides the basis of complementary analyses including an independent measurement of the energy spectrum of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using very inclined events collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory.Comment: 27 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics (JCAP

The Pierre Auger Observatory: Contributions to the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC 2015)

Contributions of the Pierre Auger Collaboration to the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference, 30 July - 6 August 2015, The Hague, The NetherlandsComment: 24 proceedings, the 34th International Cosmic Ray Conference, 30 July - 6 August 2015, The Hague, The Netherlands; will appear in PoS(ICRC2015