Propensity-matched cohort validates findings of the VALOR trial

IntroductionThe Evaluation of the Medtronic Vascular Talent Thoracic Stent Graft System for the Treatment of Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms (VALOR) trial findings noted superior 30-day and 1-year outcomes of the Talent thoracic endograft (Medtronic Vascular, Santa Rosa, Calif) compared with surgical repair of descending thoracic aneurysms (DTAs). Data from 195 prospective thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair (TEVAR) patients treated with the Talent device and 189 retrospective controls undergoing open surgical repair (OSR) from three centers of excellence were included in the trial after completion of TEVAR enrollment and compared. Such comparisons are biased by baseline differences among TEVAR vs OSR, however, propensity score (PS) analysis can reduce bias and validate such comparisons.MethodsLogistic regression was used to generate a PS (range, 0-1) to identify baseline characteristics more likely in TEVAR. The PS estimated the probability that any patient would undergo TEVAR (eg, a PS of 0.99 represents a 99% chance a patient belongs to TEVAR). PSs were then generated for all patients, and TEVAR and OSR patients were divided into tertiles based on the PS to reduce up to 80% of inherent bias. Outcomes from the middle tertile (T2), patients equally likely (midrange PS) to be in TEVAR or OSR and therefore best matched, were compared using regression analysis and were also compared with the outcomes in the overall trial group.ResultsCorrelates of membership in TEVAR were smaller aneurysm (P < .001), anticoagulants (P < .01), no previous abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair (P < .01), no peripheral vascular disease (P = .001), statin use (P = .002), aspirin use (P = .002), older age (P = .028), race (P = .007), male gender (P = .02), and heart failure (P = .035). T2 included 68 TEVAR (PS, 0.58 ± 0.2) and 67 OSR patients (PS, 0.46 ± 0.2). VALOR overall reported differences in aneurysm size (56 mm TEVAR vs 69 mm open) and prior AAA repair (19% TEVAR vs 37% open), and this adjusted to no differences in T2 patients. In the well-matched T2 cohort, TEVAR patients had similar 30-day mortality (0% vs 3% OSR; P = .2) and improved 1-year aneurysm-related mortality rates (0% TEVAR vs 8% OSR; P = .05) compared with the OSR patients. This finding was in concurrence with the VALOR trial reporting similar benefit in TEVAR patients. The all-cause 1-year mortality showed a favorable trend for TEVAR in the VALOR trial; however, in T2 patients, 1-year all-cause mortality was similar in both groups of patients (17% TEVAR vs 15% OSR; P = .8). Age (P = .01), history of cerebrovascular accident (P < .05), antiarrhythmia medication (P = .04), and renal disease (P < .03) independently predicted all-cause and aneurysm-related mortality by regression analysis.ConclusionsPS analysis is an important tool for elimination of bias inherent when retrospective controls are used. Its application to VALOR validates the long-term benefit in aneurysm-related mortality conferred by TEVAR in patients undergoing endovascular DTA repair

Durability of open repair of juxtarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms

ObjectiveAs branched/fenestrated endografts expand endovascular options for juxtarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (JAAAs), long-term durability will be compared to that of open JAAA repair, which has not been documented in large contemporary series. The goal of this study was to assess the late clinical and anatomic outcomes after open JAAA repair.MethodsFrom July 2001 to December 2007, 199 patients underwent open elective JAAA repair, as defined by a need for suprarenal clamping. End points included perioperative and late survival, long-term follow-up of renal function, and freedom from graft-related complications. Factors predictive of survival were determined by multivariate analysis.ResultsThe mean patient age was 74 years, 71% were men, and 20% had baseline renal insufficiency (Cr >1.5). Thirty-seven renal artery bypasses, for anatomic necessity or ostial stenosis, were performed in 36 patients. Overall 30-day mortality was 2.5%. Four patients (2.0%) required early dialysis; one patient recovered by discharge. Two additional patients progressed to dialysis over long-term follow-up. There was one graft infection involving one limb of a bifurcated graft. Surveillance imaging was obtained in 101 patients (72% of survivors) at a mean follow-up of 41 ± 28 months. Renal artery occlusion occurred in four patients (3% of imaged renal arteries; one native/three grafts). Two patients (2.0%) had aneurysmal degeneration of the aorta either proximal or distal to the repaired segment, but there were no anastomotic pseudoaneurysms. Remote aneurysms were found in 29 patients (29% of imaged patients), 14 of whom had descending thoracic aneurysm or TAAA. Four patients underwent subsequent thoracic endovascular aneurysm repair (TEVAR). Actuarial survival was 74 ± 3.3% at 5 years. Negative predictors of survival included increasing age at the time of operation (relative risk [RR], 1.05; P = .01), steroid use (RR, 2.20; P = .001), and elevated preoperative creatinine (RR, 1.73; P = .02).ConclusionsOpen JAAA repair yields excellent long-term anatomic durability and preserves renal function. Perioperative renal insufficiency occurs in 8.5% of patients, but few of them progress to dialysis. Graft-related complications are rare (2% at 40 months); however, axial imaging revealed descending thoracic aneurysms in 14% of imaged patients, making continued surveillance for remote aneurysms prudent. These data provide a benchmark against which fenestrated/branched endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) outcomes can be compared

Progression of asymptomatic carotid stenosis despite optimal medical therapy

BackgroundDespite level 1 evidence in support of carotid endarterectomy vs medical therapy in selected asymptomatic patients, an alternative posture is that optimal medical therapy (OMT) has not been adequately studied and that such OMT has reduced stroke risk in asymptomatic patients to levels wherein carotid endarterectomy is no longer justified. The goal of this study was to determine the natural history of patients with asymptomatic moderate (50%-69%) carotid artery stenosis (AMCAS) in a contemporary cohort as a function of their associated medical therapy.MethodsPatients with AMCAS determined by duplex ultrasound (DUS) from 2005-2006 were identified in our hospital database. Patients were included in the cohort if they had at least one additional DUS during the 6-year follow-up interval. Patient characteristics including medication history and lipid levels were collected. Patients were considered to have OMT if they were on aspirin and a statin with a low-density lipoprotein level that was always <100 mg/dL. Study end points included progression of carotid disease by DUS to severe stenosis (70%-100%), development of ipsilateral neurologic symptoms (INS) such as stroke or transient ischemic attack, and death.ResultsThere were 900 carotid arteries in 794 patients in the study cohort. The average age was 72.5 years, 77.2% had hypertension, 59.6% had coronary artery disease, and 87.1% were on a statin throughout the study. The low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level was always normal (<100 mg/dL) in 37.8% and accordingly, 241 (30.3%) had OMT as defined above. The 5-year actuarial survival was 81.9% ± 1.3% with no advantage seen with OMT. Multivariate analysis of survival showed statins were protective (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; confidence interval [CI], 0.34-0.73; P = .0004). The 5-year freedom from plaque progression was 61.2% ± 2.1% with no benefit from OMT vs the control group. Multivariate predictors of plaque progression were chronic kidney disease (HR, 2.1; CI, 1.2-3.7; P = .009), aspirin use (HR, 1.9; CI, 1.2-3.0; P = .01), and the use of calcium channel blockers (HR, 1.4; CI, 1.1-1.8; P = .007). There were 90 (11.3%) patients who developed INS during follow-up (58% of these were strokes), and the 5-year freedom from INS was 88.4% ± 1.5%. Multivariate predictors of INS were diabetes (HR, 2.3; CI, 1.5-3.6; P = .0002) and warfarin use (HR, 1.9; CI, 1.2-2.9; P = .009); while statin use (HR, 0.37; CI, 0.22-0.65; P = .0005) was protective against symptom development.ConclusionsAt the 5-year of follow-up, OMT failed to prevent carotid disease progression or development of ipsilateral symptoms in 45% of patients with AMCAS

A20, a modulator of smooth muscle cell proliferation and apoptosis, prevents and induces regression of neointimal hyperplasia

A20 is a NF‐κB‐dependent gene that has dual anti‐inflammatory and antiapoptotic functions in endothelial cells (EC). The function of A20 in smooth muscle cells (SMC) is unknown. We demonstrate that A20 is induced in SMC in response to inflammatory stimuli and serves an anti‐inflammatory function via blockade of NF‐κB and NF‐κB‐dependent proteins ICAM‐1 and MCP‐1. A20 inhibits SMC proliferation via increased expression of cyclin‐dependent kinase inhibitors p21waf1 and p27kip1. Surprisingly, A20 sensitizes SMC to cytokine‐ and Fas‐mediated apoptosis through a novel NO‐dependent mechanism. In vivo, adenoviral delivery of A20 to medial rat carotid artery SMC after balloon angioplasty prevents neointimal hyperplasia by blocking SMC proliferation and accelerating re‐endothelialization, without causing apoptosis. However, expression of A20 in established neointimal lesions leads to their regression through increased apoptosis. This is the first demonstration that A20 exerts two levels of control of vascular remodeling and healing. A20 prevents neointimal hyperplasia through combined anti‐inflammatory and antiproliferative functions in medial SMC. If SMC evade this first barrier and neointima is formed, A20 has a therapeutic potential by uniquely sensitizing neointimal SMC to apoptosis. A20‐based therapies hold promise for the prevention and treatment of neointimal disease.—Patel, V. I., Daniel, S., Longo, C. R., Shrikhande, G. V., Scali, S. T., Czismadia, E., Groft, C. M., Shukri, T., Motley‐Dore, C., Ramsey, H. E., Fisher, M. D., Grey, S. T., Arvelo, M. B., Ferran, C. A20, a modulator of smooth muscle cell proliferation and apoptosis, prevents and induces regression of neointimal hyperplasia. FASEB J. 20, 1418–1430 (2006)Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154452/1/fsb2fj054981com.pd

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97\ub71 (95% UI 95\ub78-98\ub71) in Iceland, followed by 96\ub76 (94\ub79-97\ub79) in Norway and 96\ub71 (94\ub75-97\ub73) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18\ub76 (13\ub71-24\ub74) in the Central African Republic, 19\ub70 (14\ub73-23\ub77) in Somalia, and 23\ub74 (20\ub72-26\ub78) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91\ub75 (89\ub71-93\ub76) in Beijing to 48\ub70 (43\ub74-53\ub72) in Tibet (a 43\ub75-point difference), while India saw a 30\ub78-point disparity, from 64\ub78 (59\ub76-68\ub78) in Goa to 34\ub70 (30\ub73-38\ub71) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4\ub78-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20\ub79-point to 17\ub70-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17\ub72-point to 20\ub74-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation