An Examination of the Maturity Effect in the Indian Commodities Futures Market

This paper has examined the Samuelson’s hypothesis which states that the price volatility increases as the contract nears its maturity. It has also examined the BCSS hypothesis which provides that negative covariance between the spot price and net cost of carry explains the maturity effect. The study has examined these hypotheses on the data for wheat and pepper futures contract traded at NCDEX from the date of listing of the contract to 31st March 2007 and the maturity effect has been examined for each contract individually. The study has indicated that maturity effect is present in around 45 per cent of the wheat and pepper contracts. Evidence supporting the BCSS hypothesis is present more strongly in the case of wheat as compared to pepper and 79 per cent of the contracts having maturity effect have depicted negative covariance in the case of wheat. Thus, it can be concluded that maturity effect is present and it is explained to a large extent by the negative co-variance between spot price and net carry cost. The study has observed that there is further scope for research in this area in relation to other agricultural commodities and also metals. Further studies can also be undertaken to find the informational efficiency and the reaction of informational flow to identify the reasons for the presence or absence of maturity effect.Agricultural and Food Policy,

MHD Free Convective Flow Past a Hot Vertical Porous Plate

The influence of the magnetic field on the free convective flow of a viscous fluid past a hot vertical porous plate is analysed under the assumptions that the suction velocity which is normal to the porous wall is constant and the wall temperature is spanwise cosinusoidal. The solutions for the velocity, temperature, skin friction and rate of heat transfer have been obtained in dimensionless form by perturbation technique. The effects of different flow parameters appearing in the solutions have been studied on the above flow quantities

SRF-deficient astrocytes provide neuroprotection in mouse models of excitotoxicity and neurodegeneration

Reactive astrogliosis is a common pathological hallmark of CNS injury, infection, and neurodegeneration, where reactive astrocytes can be protective or detrimental to normal brain functions. Currently, the mechanisms regulating neuroprotective astrocytes and the extent of neuroprotection are poorly understood. Here, we report that conditional deletion of serum response factor (SRF) in adult astrocytes causes reactive-like hypertrophic astrocytes throughout the mouse brain. Thes

Identification of Clinical Immunological Determinants in Asymptomatic VL and Post Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis Patients

Background: Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) caused by protozoa belonging to the genus Leishmania, usually have anthroponotic mode of transmission and is issue of great public health importance in Indian subcontinent. Asymptomatic cases of VL and PKDL are subject of keen interest to find their role in the transmission of VL in epidemic areas. We evaluated the immunological cytokine determinants expressed in most clinical suspects of asymptomatic VL and PKDL (IL-10, IFN-γ, and TNF-α). Methods: Eighty-four participants were included at RMRIMS, Patna, India in 2016-17 out of which 64 asymptomatic individual positive for rK-39, without sign and symptoms of VL; 15 PKDL patient’s with past history of VL and 5 endemic healthy subjects were recruited from VL endemic areas. DAT and quantitative assessment of plasma cytokines was determined from the blood samples collected in a plain and sodium-EDTA vacutainer respectively from the subjects. Results: The mean level of IL-10 in DATposLOW of asymptomatic VL and PKDL was significantly higher than endemic healthy (P<0.05). The cytokine polarization index (IFN-γ versus IL-10) was significantly low in PKDL cases compared with asymptomatic VL cases in DATposLOW titre (P<0.05). This index was low again but statistically not significant in PKDL than in asymptomatic VL when TNF-α was considered against IL-10. The ratio of IFN-γ: IL-10 and TNF-α: IL-10 was observed decreased both in asymptomatic VL and PKDL cases than in healthy from endemic areas. Conclusion: Collectively we surmise from our data that asymptomatic VL can also play an important role like PKDL in transmission of VL

Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Following the Use of Hypomethylating Agents among Patients with Relapsed or Refractory AML: Findings from an International Retrospective Study

Abstract Patients with primary refractory or relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (RR-AML) have very poor prognosis. Due to limited treatment options, some patients are treated with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) due to their tolerability. Little is known about the role of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) following HMA therapy in this setting. We retrospectively analyzed an international cohort of 655 RR-AML patients who received HMA therapy to study patterns and outcomes with HSCT. Only 37 patients (5.6%) patients underwent HSCT after HMA therapy. The conditioning regimen was myeloablative in 57% and nonmyeloablative in 43%. Patients received matched unrelated donor, matched sibling, haploidentical and mismatched unrelated HSCT in 56%, 24%, 16% and 4% of cases, respectively. Acute GvHD and chronic GvHD were observed in 40% and 17% of patients. While the median OS for the entire cohort of patients was 15.3 months (95% CI 9.5 – 21.7 months), OS reached 29.7 months (95% CI 7.01 – not-reached) for patients who achieved a complete remission (CR) to HMA and no intervening therapies between HMA therapy and HSCT. Our study suggests that HMA therapy can effectively bridge some patients with RR-AML to HSCT

Special considerations in the management of adult patients with acute leukaemias and myeloid neoplasms in the COVID-19 era: recommendations from a panel of international experts

This article is made available for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a global public health crisis. Multiple observations indicate poorer post-infection outcomes for patients with cancer than for the general population. Herein, we highlight the challenges in caring for patients with acute leukaemias and myeloid neoplasms amid the COVID-19 pandemic. We summarise key changes related to service allocation, clinical and supportive care, clinical trial participation, and ethical considerations regarding the use of lifesaving measures for these patients. We recognise that these recommendations might be more applicable to high-income countries and might not be generalisable because of regional differences in health-care infrastructure, individual circumstances, and a complex and highly fluid health-care environment. Despite these limitations, we aim to provide a general framework for the care of patients with acute leukaemias and myeloid neoplasms during the COVID-19 pandemic on the basis of recommendations from international experts

The use of immunosuppressive therapy in MDS: clinical outcomes and their predictors in a large international patient cohort

Most studies of immunosuppressive therapy (IST) in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are limited by small numbers and their single-center nature, and report conflicting data regarding predictors for response to IST. We examined outcomes associated with IST and predictors of benefit in a large international cohort of patients with MDS. Data were collected from 15 centers in the United States and Europe. Responses, including red blood cell (RBC) transfusion independence (TI), were assessed based on the 2006 MDS International Working Group criteria, and overall survival (OS) was estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. Logistic regression models estimated odds for response and TI, and Cox Proportional Hazard models estimated hazards ratios for OS. We identified 207 patients with MDS receiving IST, excluding steroid monotherapy. The most common IST regimen was anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) plus prednisone (43%). Overall response rate (ORR) was 48.8%, including 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.5%-18.4%) who achieved a complete remission and 30% (95% CI, 22.3%-39.5%) who achieved RBC TI. Median OS was 47.4 months (95% CI, 37-72.3 months) and was longer for patients who achieved a response or TI. Achievement of RBC TI was associated with a hypocellular bone marrow (cellularity < 20%); horse ATG plus cyclosporine was more effective than rabbit ATG or ATG without cyclosporine. Age, transfusion dependence, presence of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria or large granular lymphocyte clones, and HLA DR15 positivity did not predict response to IST. IST leads to objective responses in nearly half the selected patients with the highest rate of RBC TI achieved in patients with hypocellular bone marrows

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic