An Experimental Test of Buffer Utility as a Technique for Managing Pool-Breeding Amphibians

Vegetated buffers are used extensively to manage wetland-dependent wildlife. Despite widespread application, buffer utility has not been experimentally validated for most species. To address this gap, we conducted a six-year, landscape-scale experiment, testing how buffers of different widths affect the demographic structure of two amphibian species at 11 ephemeral pools in a working forest of the northeastern U.S. We randomly assigned each pool to one of three treatments (i.e., reference, 100m buffer, 30m buffer) and clearcut to create buffers. We captured all spotted salamanders and wood frogs breeding in each pool and examined the impacts of treatment and hydroperiod on breeding-population abundance, sex ratio, and recapture rate. The negative effects of clearcutting tended to increase as forest-buffer width decreased and be strongest for salamanders and when other stressors were present (e.g., at short-hydroperiod pools). Recapture rates were reduced in the 30m, but not 100m, treatment. Throughout the experiment for frogs, and during the first year post-cut for salamanders, the predicted mean proportion of recaptured adults in the 30m treatment was only 62% and 40%, respectively, of that in the reference treatment. Frog sex ratio and abundance did not differ across treatments, but salamander sex ratios were increasingly male-biased in both cut treatments. By the final year, there were on average, only about 40% and 65% as many females predicted in the 100m and 30m treatments, respectively, compared to the first year. Breeding salamanders at short-hydroperiod pools were about 10% as abundant in the 100m versus reference treatment. Our study demonstrates that buffers partially mitigate the impacts of habitat disturbance on wetland-dependent amphibians, but buffer width and hydroperiod critically mediate that process. We provide the first experimental evidence showing that 30-m-wide buffers may be insufficient for maintaining resilient breeding populations of pool-dependent amphibians, at least during the first six years post-disturbance

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: a multi-model analysis

AbstractMexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country

Simple Viscous Flows: from Boundary Layers to the Renormalization Group

The seemingly simple problem of determining the drag on a body moving through a very viscous fluid has, for over 150 years, been a source of theoretical confusion, mathematical paradoxes, and experimental artifacts, primarily arising from the complex boundary layer structure of the flow near the body and at infinity. We review the extensive experimental and theoretical literature on this problem, with special emphasis on the logical relationship between different approaches. The survey begins with the developments of matched asymptotic expansions, and concludes with a discussion of perturbative renormalization group techniques, adapted from quantum field theory to differential equations. The renormalization group calculations lead to a new prediction for the drag coefficient, one which can both reproduce and surpass the results of matched asymptotics

Integrated assessment of global climate, air pollution, and dietary, malnutrition and obesity health impacts of food production and consumption between 2014 and 2018

Agriculture accounts for approximately 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is simultaneously associated with impacts on human health through food consumption, and agricultural air pollutant emissions. These impacts are often quantified separately, and there is a lack of modelling tools to facilitate integrated assessments. This work presents a new model that integrates assessment of agricultural systems on (i) human health indirectly through dietary, obesity and malnutrition health risks from food consumption, (ii) human health directly through exposure to air pollutants from agricultural emissions, and (iii) greenhouse gas emissions. In the model, national food demand is the starting point from which the livestock and crop production systems that meet this are represented. The model is applied for 2014–2018 to assess the robustness of the GHG emissions and health burden results that this integrated modelling framework produces compared to previous studies that have quantified these variables independently. Methane and nitrous oxide emissions globally in 2018 were estimated to be 129 and 4.4 million tonnes, respectively, consistent with previous estimates. Agricultural systems were also estimated to emit 44 million tonnes of ammonia. An estimated 4.1 million deaths were associated with dietary health risks, 6.0 million with overweight/obesity, and 730 thousand infant deaths from malnutrition, consistent with previous studies. Agricultural air pollutant emissions were estimated to be associated with 537 thousand premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure, and 184 thousand premature deaths from methane-induced ground-level ozone. These health impacts provide substantial opportunities to design integrated strategies that mitigate climate change, and improve human health, and also highlight possible trade-offs that the expansion of agricultural production could have due to increased emissions. The model presented here provides for the consistent evaluation of the implications of different agricultural strategies to meet food demand while minimising human health and climate change impacts

Climate change mitigation in Zimbabwe and links to sustainable development

In 2021, Zimbabwe updated its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction target from a 33% reduction in per capita energy sector GHG emissions to a 40% reduction from all sectors, compared to 2030 baseline emission scenarios. This work aims to demonstrate how the actions identified in Zimbabwe's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) can achieve this updated target, and what development benefits could occur in Zimbabwe through the implementation of these actions. The magnitude of GHG emissions in Zimbabwe are modelled historically and to 2030 to quantify GHG emission reduction potentials, and contributions to selected sustainable development goal targets, from implementation of 28 mitigation measures. The estimated ∼37 million tonnes CO2-equivalent emissions emitted by Zimbabwe in 2017 are projected to increase by 109% to ∼77 million tonnes without implementation of any mitigation measures. The mitigation measures included in the updated NDC could reduce GHG emissions by 40% in 2030 compared to the baseline, while additional measures included in other plans and strategies in Zimbabwe could achieve a further 23% reduction. Implementing Zimbabwe's NDC could also lead to substantial development benefits locally, including to public health, biodiversity, and sustainable energy use. This assessment therefore provides a clear pathway to achieve Zimbabwe's updated climate change mitigation commitment, as the target is linked to the implementation of specific, concrete mitigation actions. It provides a practical example as to how methods to assess climate mitigation and development priorities can be integrated within climate change mitigation target-setting assessments. The more widespread adoption of prospective, quantitative assessment of development benefits from climate change mitigation actions could provide further motivation for more ambitious climate change action

Doxycycline versus prednisolone as an initial treatment strategy for bullous pemphigoid: a pragmatic non-inferiority randomised controlled trial

Background: Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is a blistering skin disorder with increased mortality. We tested whether a strategy of starting treatment with doxycycline conveys acceptable short-term blister control whilst conferring long-term safety advantages over starting treatment with oral corticosteroids. Methods: Pragmatic multi-centre parallel-group randomised controlled trial of adults with BP (≥3 blisters ≥2 sites and linear basement membrane IgG/C3) plus economic evaluation. Participants were randomised to doxycycline (200 mg/day) or prednisolone (0·5 mg/kg/day). Localised adjuvant potent topical corticosteroids (<30 g/week) was permitted weeks 1-3. The non-inferiority primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants with ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks. We assumed that doxycycline would be 25% less effective than corticosteroids with a 37% acceptable margin of noninferiority. The primary safety outcome was the proportion with severe, life-threatening or fatal treatment-related adverse events by 52 weeks. Analysis used a regression model adjusting for baseline disease severity, age and Karnofsky score, with missing data imputed. Results: 132 patients were randomised to doxycycline and 121 to prednisolone from 54 UK and 7 German dermatology centres. Mean age was 77·7 years and 68.4% had moderate to severe baseline disease. For those starting doxycycline, 83/112 (74·1%) had ≤3 blisters at 6 weeks compared with 92/101 (91·1%) for prednisolone, a difference of 18·6% favouring prednisolone (upper limit of 90% CI, 26·1%, within the predefined 37% margin). Related severe, life-threatening and fatal events at 52 weeks were 18·5% for those starting doxycycline and 36·6% for prednisolone (mITT analysis), an adjusted difference of 19·0% (95% CI, 7·9%, 30·1%, p=0·001). Conclusions: A strategy of starting BP patients on doxycycline is non-inferior to standard treatment with oral prednisolone for short-term blister control and significantly safer long-term

Clinical outcomes and response to treatment of patients receiving topical treatments for pyoderma gangrenosum: a prospective cohort study

Background: pyoderma gangrenosum (PG) is an uncommon dermatosis with a limited evidence base for treatment. Objective: to estimate the effectiveness of topical therapies in the treatment of PG. Methods: prospective cohort study of UK secondary care patients with a clinical diagnosis of PG suitable for topical treatment (recruited July 2009 to June 2012). Participants received topical therapy following normal clinical practice (mainly Class I-III topical corticosteroids, tacrolimus 0.03% or 0.1%). Primary outcome: speed of healing at 6 weeks. Secondary outcomes: proportion healed by 6 months; time to healing; global assessment; inflammation; pain; quality-of-life; treatment failure and recurrence. Results: Sixty-six patients (22 to 85 years) were enrolled. Clobetasol propionate 0.05% was the most commonly prescribed therapy. Overall, 28/66 (43.8%) of ulcers healed by 6 months. Median time-to-healing was 145 days (95% CI: 96 days, ∞). Initial ulcer size was a significant predictor of time-to-healing (hazard ratio 0.94 (0.88;80 1.00); p = 0.043). Four patients (15%) had a recurrence. Limitations: No randomised comparator Conclusion: Topical therapy is potentially an effective first-line treatment for PG that avoids possible side effects associated with systemic therapy. It remains unclear whether more severe disease will respond adequately to topical therapy alone