Incidence and Reproduction Numbers of Pertussis: Estimates from Serological and Social Contact Data in Five European Countries

Analyses of serological and social contact data from several European countries by Miriam Kretzschmar and colleagues show that vaccination against pertussis has shifted the burden of infection from children to adolescents and adults

Using combined diagnostic test results to hindcast trends of infection from cross-sectional data

Infectious disease surveillance is key to limiting the consequences from infectious pathogens and maintaining animal and public health. Following the detection of a disease outbreak, a response in proportion to the severity of the outbreak is required. It is thus critical to obtain accurate information concerning the origin of the outbreak and its forward trajectory. However, there is often a lack of situational awareness that may lead to over- or under-reaction. There is a widening range of tests available for detecting pathogens, with typically different temporal characteristics, e.g. in terms of when peak test response occurs relative to time of exposure. We have developed a statistical framework that combines response level data from multiple diagnostic tests and is able to ‘hindcast’ (infer the historical trend of) an infectious disease epidemic. Assuming diagnostic test data from a cross-sectional sample of individuals infected with a pathogen during an outbreak, we use a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate time of exposure, and the overall epidemic trend in the population prior to the time of sampling. We evaluate the performance of this statistical framework on simulated data from epidemic trend curves and show that we can recover the parameter values of those trends. We also apply the framework to epidemic trend curves taken from two historical outbreaks: a bluetongue outbreak in cattle, and a whooping cough outbreak in humans. Together, these results show that hindcasting can estimate the time since infection for individuals and provide accurate estimates of epidemic trends, and can be used to distinguish whether an outbreak is increasing or past its peak. We conclude that if temporal characteristics of diagnostics are known, it is possible to recover epidemic trends of both human and animal pathogens from cross-sectional data collected at a single point in time

Longer and less overlapping food webs in anthropogenically disturbed marine ecosystems: confirmations from the past

The human exploitation of marine resources is characterised by the preferential removal of the largest species. Although this is expected to modify the structure of food webs, we have a relatively poor understanding of the potential consequences of such alteration. Here, we take advantage of a collection of ancient consumer tissues, using stable isotope analysis and SIBER to assess changes in the structure of coastal marine food webs in the South-western Atlantic through the second half of the Holocene as a result of the sequential exploitation of marine resources by hunter-gatherers, western sealers and modern fishermen. Samples were collected from shell middens and museums. Shells of both modern and archaeological intertidal herbivorous molluscs were used to reconstruct changes in the stable isotopic baseline, while modern and archaeological bones of the South American sea lion Otaria flavescens, South American fur seal Arctocephalus australis and Magellanic penguin Spheniscus magellanicus were used to analyse changes in the structure of the community of top predators. We found that ancient food webs were shorter, more redundant and more overlapping than current ones, both in northern-central Patagonia and southern Patagonia. These surprising results may be best explained by the huge impact of western sealing on pinnipeds during the fur trade period, rather than the impact of fishing on fish populations. As a consequence, the populations of pinnipeds at the end of the sealing period were likely well below the ecosystem's carrying capacity, which resulted in a release of intraspecific competition and a shift towards larger and higher trophic level prey. This in turn led to longer and less overlapping food webs

Prospective evaluation of an Australian pertussis toxin IgG and IgA enzyme immunoassay

Serological diagnosis of recent pertussis infection is an important part of both clinical assessment and epidemiological documentation of this disease. Standardization of serological testing and interpretation remains challenging despite international efforts to improve it. Currently, determining the anti-pertussis toxin (PT) IgG titer is recommended as the most accurate serological test in Europe and the United States, while Australia relies predominantly on measurement of Bordetella pertussis IgA antibody responses. Using B. pertussis PCR and the WHO clinical case definition as reference standards, the diagnostic utility of in-house anti-PT IgG and anti-PT IgA assays was evaluated prospectively in an Australian community-based cohort (n = 327). Patients provided up to four consecutive serum samples to document the kinetics of antibody response and decay. Previously validated cutoffs for positivity were converted to international units by using WHO-approved reference sera. At currently used cutoffs, both anti-PT IgG (>94 IU/ml) and anti-PT IgA (>20 IU/ml) assays had good specificity (80% [95% confidence interval {95% CI}, 68 to 88%] and 87% [95% CI, 77 to 94%]), but anti-PT IgG assay was consistently more sensitive than anti-PT IgA assay across a range of cutoffs (60 to 79% [95% CI, 53 to 84%] versus 41 to 62% [95% CI, 34 to 69%]). The combination of anti-PT IgG and anti-PT IgA assays performed no better than anti-PT IgG assay alone. The anti-PT IgA response in children under 12 years of age was poor. The accuracy of serology was optimal between 2 and 8 weeks after symptom onset. Cutoffs of >94 IU/ml for anti-PT IgG and >20 IU/ml for anti-PT IgA correlated well with recent pertussis infection and were consistent with recent recommendations from the EU Pertstrain group. Anti-PT IgG assay was superior to anti-PT IgA assay as the test of choice for the diagnosis of pertussis from a single sample

What to do and what not to do in serological diagnosis of pertussis: recommendations from EU reference laboratories

International audience-specific antibodies can be detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) or multiplex immunoassays. Assays use purified or mixed antigens, and only pertussis toxin (PT) is specific for . The interpretation of results can be based on dual-sample or single-sample serology using one or two cut-offs. The EU Pertstrain group recommends that: (i) ELISAs and multiplex immunoassays should use purified non-detoxified PT as an antigen, that they should have a broad linear range and that they should express results quantitatively in International Units per millilitre (IU/ml); (ii) a single or dual diagnostic cut-off for single-serum serology using IgG-anti-PT between 50 and 120 IU/ml should be used, and diagnostic serology cannot be validly interpreted for one year after vaccination with acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines; (iii) IgA-anti-PT should only be used with indeterminate IgG-anti-PT levels or when a second sample cannot be obtained. This group discourages using: (i) other antigens in routine diagnostics, as they are not specific; (ii) micro-agglutination, due to its lack of sensitivity; (iii) immunoblots for pertussis serodiagnosis, as results cannot be quantified; (iv) other methods, such as complement fixation or indirect immunofluorescence, due to their low sensitivity and/or specificity

Longer and less overlapping food webs in anthropogenically disturbed marine ecosystems: confirmations from the past

The human exploitation of marine resources is characterised by the preferential removal of the largest species. Although this is expected to modify the structure of food webs, we have a relatively poor understanding of the potential consequences of such alteration. Here, we take advantage of a collection of ancient consumer tissues, using stable isotope analysis and SIBER to assess changes in the structure of coastal marine food webs in the South-western Atlantic through the second half of the Holocene as a result of the sequential exploitation of marine resources by hunter-gatherers, western sealers and modern fishermen. Samples were collected from shell middens and museums. Shells of both modern and archaeological intertidal herbivorous molluscs were used to reconstruct changes in the stable isotopic baseline, while modern and archaeological bones of the South American sea lion Otaria flavescens, South American fur seal Arctocephalus australis and Magellanic penguin Spheniscus magellanicus were used to analyse changes in the structure of the community of top predators. We found that ancient food webs were shorter, more redundant and more overlapping than current ones, both in northern-central Patagonia and southern Patagonia. These surprising results may be best explained by the huge impact of western sealing on pinnipeds during the fur trade period, rather than the impact of fishing on fish populations. As a consequence, the populations of pinnipeds at the end of the sealing period were likely well below the ecosystem's carrying capacity, which resulted in a release of intraspecific competition and a shift towards larger and higher trophic level prey. This in turn led to longer and less overlapping food webs