The relationship between landscape patterns and human-caused fire occurrence in Spain

Aim of study: Human settlements and activities have completely modified landscape structure in the Mediterranean region. Vegetation patterns show the interactions between human activities and natural processes on the territory, and allow understanding historical ecological processes and socioeconomic factors. The arrangement of land uses in the rural landscape can be perceived as a proxy for human activities that often lead to the use, and escape, of fire, the most important disturbance in our forest landscapes. In this context, we tried to predict human-caused fire occurrence in a 5-year period by quantifying landscape patterns. Area of study: This study analyses the Spanish territory included in the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands (497,166 km2). Material and Methods: We evaluated spatial pattern applying a set of commonly used landscape ecology metrics to landscape windows of 10x10 sq km (4751 units in the UTM grid) overlaid on the Forest Map of Spain, MFE200. Main results: The best logistic regression model obtained included Shannon’s Diversity Index, Mean Patch Edge and Mean Shape Index as explicative variables and the global percentage of correct predictions was 66.3 %. Research highlights: Our results suggested that the highest probability of fire occurrence at that time was associated with areas with a greater diversity of land uses and with more compact patches with fewer edges

Applying cascade-correlation neural networks to in-fill gaps in Mediterranean daily flow data series

The analyses of water resources availability and impacts are based on the study over time of meteorological and hydrological data trends. In order to perform those analyses properly, long records of continuous and reliable data are needed, but they are seldom available. Lack of records as in gaps or discontinuities in data series and quality issues are two of the main problems more often found in databases used for climate studies and water resources management. Flow data series from gauging stations are not an exception. Over the last 20 years, forecasting models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been increasingly applied in many fields of natural resources, including hydrology. This paper discusses results obtained on the application of cascade-correlation ANN models to predict daily water flow using Julian day and rainfall data provided by nearby weather stations in the Ebro river watershed (Northeast Spain). Five unaltered gauging stations showing a rainfall-dominated hydrological regime were selected for the study. Daily flow and weather data series covered 30 years to encompass the high variability of Mediterranean environments. Models were then applied to the in-filling of existing gaps under different conditions related to the characteristics of the gaps (6 scenarios). Results showed that when short periods before and after the gap are considered, this is a useful approach, although no general rule applied to all stations and gaps investigated. Models for low-water-flow periods provided better results (r = 0.76–0.8)

Social valuation of scenic beauty in Catalonian beech forests

Se aplican métodos ensayados en otros países (Scenic Beauty Estimation Method, SBE) para la determinación de las cualidades estéticas de masas forestales de interés recreativo a parcelas en diversas localizaciones del haya en Cataluña, abarcando diferencias significativas en estación, origen, edad y forma de masa. Las valoraciones se refieren a las cualidades estéticas de los rodales de haya vistos desde el interior del bosque, es decir, tal como son apreciados por parte de los visitantes de los montes. Las valoraciones se obtienen a través de paneles de observadores en sesiones fotográficas, se transforman a una escala común y se relacionan mediante análisis de regresión a las variables dasométricas tomadas en las parcelas de inventario. El desarrollo de modelos estadísticos que describen preferencias sociales permite medir la aportación de las diferentes variables dasométricas a la mejora estética de las masas de haya, y puede servir como guía en la ordenación de hayedos en que el uso público sea predominante o muy importante.Methods tested in other countries are applied for scenic beauty valuation in several beech locations in Catalonia including significant differences in site, origin, age and stand structure. The study intends to measure stand scenic beauty as seen from inside the forest, as forest visitors see it (near-view). Assessments are obtained through panels of observers in slide sessions, which are transformed into scaled ratings and related through regression analysis to plot-based forest inventory data. The development of statistical models that describe social visual preferences allows the assessment of the contribution of different forestry-related physical variables to the aesthetic improvement of beech forests. It can also be useful as a guide to beech forest planning where recreational use is prevailing or very important

A fire modeling approach to assess wildfire exposure of valued resources in central Navarra, Spain

Wildfires are a growing threat to socio-economic and natural resources in the wildland-rural-urban intermix in central Navarra (Spain), where recent fast-spreading and spotting short fire events have overwhelmed suppression capabilities. A fire simulation modeling approach based on the minimum travel time (MTT) algorithm was used to analyze the wildfire exposure of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) in a 28,000 ha area. We replicated 30,000 fires at fine resolution (20 m), based on wildfire season and recent fire weather and moisture conditions, historical ignition patterns and spatially-explicit canopy fuels derived from low-density airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR). Detailed maps of simulated fire likelihood, fire intensity and fire size were used to assess spatial patterns of HVRA exposure to fire and to analyze large fire initiation and spread through source-sink ratio and fire potential index. Crown fire activity was estimated and used to identify potential spotting-emission hazardous stands. The results revealed considerable variation in fire risk causative factors among and within HVRAs. Exposure levels across HVRAs were mainly related to the combined effects of anthropic ignition locations, fuels, topography and weather conditions. We discuss the potential of fire management strategies such as prioritizing mitigation treatment and fire ignition prevention monitoring, informed by fine-scale geospatial quantitative risk assessment outcome

Selecció d'espais oberts a recuperar i propostes d'ús : una aproximació per anàlisi espacial i multicriteri

Dins de matrius eminentment forestals, els espais oberts agrícoles juguen un paper important diversificant els hàbitats i, de retruc, donant cabuda a l'ecosistema a un nombre d'espècies que d'ells depenen en tots o en alguns moments del seu cicle biològic. La pèrdua d'espais agrícoles tradicionals va més enllà de la pèrdua de varietats agrícoles i ramaderes i de flora arvense associada, i afecta també a molts d'altres organismes. A més de la seva importància directa en la biodiversitat, els espais oberts agrícoles també representen un trencament de la continuïtat del combustible i requereixen el manteniment de vies d'accés, tot coadjuvant a mantenir un paisatge amb un menor risc d'incendi. La zona d'estudi ha estat els Parcs Naturals de Sant Llorenç de Munt i L'Obac, i Garraf, Olèrdola i Foix. Hem considerat de forma simplificada el paisatge dels Parcs com a mosaics amb diferents fases (arbrat dens, arbustiu dens, espais oberts, roquissars i petites zones urbanes) i pressuposa que l'objectiu de la gestió dels Parcs és la conservació d'aquests mosaics i no la seva uniformització en paisatges forestals continus. Hem localitzat e inventariat els espais oberts agrícoles actius i abandonats (recentment i des de 1957) de la zona com a capes SIG, tot associant a cada espai el conjunt de característiques necessàries per la seva gestió i organitzant-los en una Base de Dades lligada a les capes SIG. Un cop fet això, i per tal d'ordenar les actuacions de recuperació, hem establert un sistema de priorització dels espais candidats a través d'anàlisi multi-criteri. En aquesta priorització, ha jugat un paper destacat l'impacte de l'eventual recuperació de cada espai en la geometria del mosaic, la qual cosa ha requerit anàlisi i simulació espacial. Finalment, hem elaborat un conjunt de projectes d'actuació en certs espais concrets per a que serveixin com a models d'actuació

Modelización de la riqueza de aves mediante redes neuronales para la gestión forestal a escala de paisaje

For preserving biodiversity of European-Mediterranean forest ecosystems in current and future scenarios of global change by means of sustainable forest management it is necessary to determine how environment and forest characteristics correlate with biodiversity. For this purpose, neural networks were used to model forest bird species richness as a function of environment and forest structure and composition at the 1x1 km scale in Catalonia (NE Spain). Univariate and multivariate models respectively allowed exploring individual variable response and obtaining a parsimonious (ecologically meaningful) and accurate neural network. Forest area (with a canopy cover above 5%), mean forest canopy cover, mean annual temperature and summer precipitation were the best predictors of forest bird species richness. The resultant multivariate network had a good generalization capacity that failed however in the locations with highest species richness. Additionally, those forests with different degrees of canopy closure that were more mature and presented a more diverse tree species composition were also associated with higher bird species richness. This allowed us to provide management guidelines for forest planning in order to promote avian diversity in this European-Mediterranean region.Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1x1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea

Predictive traits for success in social rehabilitation of drug addicts

[ES] Esta investigación analizó el perfil de las personas participantes en un programa de reinserción social de personas privadas de libertad drogodependientes a fin de identificar qué características personales se asociaban con la consecución del alta terapéutica, esto es, el éxito en el programa y, consiguientemente, con su reinserción social y abandono de la dependencia. En este artículo se comienza describiendo el estado de la cuestión en cuanto a drogodependencia, privación de libertad y a los tipos programas existentes en el Estado Español para la reinserción de estos colectivos, a fin de situar las características particulares del programa que ofrece el contexto al estudio. Asimismo se detallan los objetivos de la investigación evaluativa en la que se inserta esta investigación y la metodología utilizada. Los resultados y la discusión de los mismos nos permite afirmar que los perfiles de entrada de las población estudiada se corresponden con los de otros estudios sobre la misma población, y valorar los diversos factores predictores de éxito en la recuperación. Así, los datos muestran que el grado de avance en el proceso de deterioro personal y social que supone la adicción, así como los factores de resiliencia vividos en la historia personal y los lazos afectivos que se proyectan hacia el futuro constituyen elementos relevantes para abordar con éxito un programa de superación de la adicción; al tiempo que confirman la oportunidad de programas combinados entre el tercer sector y una prisión que asuma la función reeducadora que le otorga la Constitución Española. [EN] This research analyzed the profile of the participants in a program of social rehabilitation of drug addicts deprived of liberty in order to identify every personal feature required to achieve medical discharge, in other words, success in the program, and, consequently, social rehabilitation and the overcoming of the addiction. This article begins describing the state of the matter in question regarding drug dependency, deprivation of liberty and the existing types of programs in Spain for reintegration of these groups, in order to identify the particular features of the program offering the context for the study. Moreover, the targets of the evaluative research and the methodology used are also detailed in the text. The outcome obtained and its discussion allow us to affirm that the entry profiles of the target population correspond to other studies on the same population, and to value the diverse factors predicting success in the rehabilitation. Thus, the results proved that the degree of progress in the process of personal and social decline caused by the addiction, as well as the resilience factors experienced and the emotional bonds projected into the future are relevant elements to successfully tackle programs to overcome addictions. They also confirm the opportunity of programs combining the third sector with prisons which assume the re-educative role conferred by Spanish Constitution