Testing the validity of the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF) used to assess UK safety measures

AbstractThe “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), the maximum amount that it is notionally reasonable to pay for a safety measure that will reduce by one the expected number of preventable premature deaths in a large population, is published by the UK Department for Transport (DfT). The figure, updated for changes in GDP per head, is used by the DfT, the Health and Safety Executive and other UK regulatory bodies as well as very widely in the process, nuclear and other industries as the standard by which to judge how much to spend to reduce harm to humans. The paper tests the validity of the 1999 study on which the VPF is based and finds that that study fails numerous tests of its validity. It is concluded that there is no evidential base for the VPF that has been used for many years in the UK and is still in standard use today. Given the difficulties evident in the interpretation of survey results, an urgent re-appraisal is needed of alternative statistical methodologies that can allow robust regulatory and industry safety decision making and, vitally, give adequate protection to the UK public and to those working in the UK's transport, process, nuclear and other industries

Considerations in relation to off-site emergency procedures and response for nuclear accidents

The operation of nuclear facilities has, fortunately, not led to many accidents with off-site consequences. However, it is well-recognised that should a large release of radioactivity occur, the effects in the surrounding area and population will be significant. These effects can be mitigated by developing emergency preparedness and response plans prior to the operation of the nuclear facility that can be exercised regularly and implemented if an accident occurs. This review paper details the various stages of a nuclear accident and the corresponding aspects of an emergency preparedness plan that are relevant to these stages, both from a UK and international perspective. The paper also details how certain aspects of emergency preparedness have been affected by the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi and as a point of comparison how emergency management plans were implemented following the accidents at Three Mile Island 2 and Chernobyl. In addition, the UK’s economic costing model for nuclear accidents COCO-2, and the UK’s Level-3 Probabilistic Safety Assessment code “PACE” are introduced. Finally, the factors that affect the economic impact of a nuclear accident, especially from a UK standpoint, are described

Predicting the cost of the consequences of a large nuclear accident in the UK

Nuclear accidents have the potential to lead to significant off-site effects that require actions to minimise the radiological impacts on people. Such countermeasures may include sheltering, evacuation, restrictions on the sale of locally-grown food, and long-term relocation of the population amongst others. Countries with nuclear facilities draw up emergency preparedness plans, and put in place such provisions as distributing instructions and iodine prophylaxis to the local population. Their plans are applied in simulated exercises on a regular basis. The costs associated with emergency preparedness and the safety provisions to reduce the likelihood of an accident, and/or mitigate the consequences, are justified on the basis of the health risks and accident costs averted. There is, of course, only limited actual experience to indicate the likely costs so that much of the costing of accidents is based on calculations. This paper reviews the methodologies used, in particular the approach that has been developed in the UK, to appraise the costs of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results of analysing a hypothetical nuclear accident at a fictitious reactor site within the United Kingdom are discussed in relation to the accidents at Three Mile Island 2, Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi

Dust Devil Tracks

Dust devils that leave dark- or light-toned tracks are common on Mars and they can also be found on the Earth’s surface. Dust devil tracks (hereinafter DDTs) are ephemeral surface features with mostly sub-annual lifetimes. Regarding their size, DDT widths can range between ∼1 m and ∼1 km, depending on the diameter of dust devil that created the track, and DDT lengths range from a few tens of meters to several kilometers, limited by the duration and horizontal ground speed of dust devils. DDTs can be classified into three main types based on their morphology and albedo in contrast to their surroundings; all are found on both planets: (a) dark continuous DDTs, (b) dark cycloidal DDTs, and (c) bright DDTs. Dark continuous DDTs are the most common type on Mars. They are characterized by their relatively homogenous and continuous low albedo surface tracks. Based on terrestrial and martian in situ studies, these DDTs most likely form when surficial dust layers are removed to expose larger-grained substrate material (coarse sands of ≥500 μm in diameter). The exposure of larger-grained materials changes the photometric properties of the surface; hence leading to lower albedo tracks because grain size is photometrically inversely proportional to the surface reflectance. However, although not observed so far, compositional differences (i.e., color differences) might also lead to albedo contrasts when dust is removed to expose substrate materials with mineralogical differences. For dark continuous DDTs, albedo drop measurements are around 2.5 % in the wavelength range of 550–850 nm on Mars and around 0.5 % in the wavelength range from 300–1100 nm on Earth. The removal of an equivalent layer thickness around 1 μm is sufficient for the formation of visible dark continuous DDTs on Mars and Earth. The next type of DDTs, dark cycloidal DDTs, are characterized by their low albedo pattern of overlapping scallops. Terrestrial in situ studies imply that they are formed when sand-sized material that is eroded from the outer vortex area of a dust devil is redeposited in annular patterns in the central vortex region. This type of DDT can also be found in on Mars in orbital image data, and although in situ studies are lacking, terrestrial analog studies, laboratory work, and numerical modeling suggest they have the same formation mechanism as those on Earth. Finally, bright DDTs are characterized by their continuous track pattern and high albedo compared to their undisturbed surroundings. They are found on both planets, but to date they have only been analyzed in situ on Earth. Here, the destruction of aggregates of dust, silt and sand by dust devils leads to smooth surfaces in contrast to the undisturbed rough surfaces surrounding the track. The resulting change in photometric properties occurs because the smoother surfaces have a higher reflectance compared to the surrounding rough surface, leading to bright DDTs. On Mars, the destruction of surficial dust-aggregates may also lead to bright DDTs. However, higher reflective surfaces may be produced by other formation mechanisms, such as dust compaction by passing dust devils, as this may also cause changes in photometric properties. On Mars, DDTs in general are found at all elevations and on a global scale, except on the permanent polar caps. DDT maximum areal densities occur during spring and summer in both hemispheres produced by an increase in dust devil activity caused by maximum insolation. Regionally, dust devil densities vary spatially likely controlled by changes in dust cover thicknesses and substrate materials. This variability makes it difficult to infer dust devil activity from DDT frequencies. Furthermore, only a fraction of dust devils leave tracks. However, DDTs can be used as proxies for dust devil lifetimes and wind directions and speeds, and they can also be used to predict lander or rover solar panel clearing events. Overall, the high DDT frequency in many areas on Mars leads to drastic albedo changes that affect large-scale weather patterns

Study protocol for preventing early-onset pneumonia in young children through maternal immunisation: a multi-centre randomised controlled trial (PneuMatters)

Background: Preventing and/or reducing acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in young children will lead to substantial short and long-term clinical benefits. While immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) reduces paediatric ALRIs, its efficacy for reducing infant ALRIs following maternal immunisation has not been studied. Compared to other PCVs, the 10-valent pneumococcal-Haemophilus influenzae Protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) is unique as it includes target antigens from two common lower airway pathogens, pneumococcal capsular polysaccharides and protein D, which is a conserved H. influenzae outer membrane lipoprotein. Aims: The primary aim of this randomised controlled trial (RCT) is to determine whether vaccinating pregnant women with PHiD-CV (compared to controls) reduces ALRIs in their infants' first year of life. Our secondary aims are to evaluate the impact of maternal PHiD-CV vaccination on different ALRI definitions and, in a subgroup, the infants' nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococci and H. influenzae, and their immune responses to pneumococcal vaccine type serotypes and protein D. Methods: We are undertaking a parallel, multicentre, superiority RCT (1:1 allocation) at four sites across two countries (Australia, Malaysia). Healthy pregnant Australian First Nation or Malaysian women aged 17-40 years with singleton pregnancies between 27+6 and 34+6 weeks gestation are randomly assigned to receive either a single dose of PHiD-CV or usual care. Treatment allocation is concealed. Study outcome assessors are blinded to treatment arms. Our primary outcome is the rate of medically attended ALRIs by 12-months of age. Blood and nasopharyngeal swabs are collected from infants at birth, and at ages 6- and 12-months (in a subset). Our planned sample size (n = 292) provides 88% power (includes 10% anticipated loss to follow-up). Discussion: Results from this RCT potentially leads to prevention of early and recurrent ALRIs and thus preservation of lung health during the infant's vulnerable period when lung growth is maximum. The multicentre nature of our study increases the generalisability of its future findings and is complemented by assessing the microbiological and immunological outcomes in a subset of infants. Clinical Trial Registration: https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=374381, identifier: ACTRN12618000150246.Anne B. Chang, Maree Toombs, Mark D. Chatfield, Remai Mitchell, Siew M. Fong, Michael J. Binks ... at al

From the outside in: narratives of creative arts practitioners working in the criminal justice system

This is an accepted manuscript of an article published by Wiley-Blackwell in The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice on 31/12/2019, available online: https://doi.org/10.1111/hojo.12318 The accepted version of the publication may differ from the final published version.The penal voluntary sector is highly variegated in its roles, practices and functions, though research to date has largely excluded the experiences of front-line practitioners. We argue that engaging with the narratives of practitioners can provide fuller appreciation of the potential of the sector’s work. Though life story and narrative have been recognised as important in offender desistance (Maruna, 2001), the narrative identities of creative arts practitioners, who are important ‘change agents’ (Albertson, 2015), are typically absent. This is despite evidence to suggest that a practitioner’s life history can be a significant and positive influence in the rehabilitation of offenders (Harris, 2017). Using narratological analysis (Bal, 2009), this study examined the narratives of 19 creative practitioners in prisons in England and Wales. Of particular interest were the formative experiences of arts practitioners in their journey to prison work. The findings suggest that arts practitioners identify with an ‘outsider’ status and may be motivated by an ethic of mutual aid. In the current climate of third sector involvement in the delivery of criminal justice interventions, such a capacity may be both a strength and weakness for arts organisations working in this field

A roadmap for Antarctic and Southern Ocean science for the next two decades and beyond

Antarctic and Southern Ocean science is vital to understanding natural variability, the processes that govern global change and the role of humans in the Earth and climate system. The potential for new knowledge to be gained from future Antarctic science is substantial. Therefore, the international Antarctic community came together to ‘scan the horizon’ to identify the highest priority scientific questions that researchers should aspire to answer in the next two decades and beyond. Wide consultation was a fundamental principle for the development of a collective, international view of the most important future directions in Antarctic science. From the many possibilities, the horizon scan identified 80 key scientific questions through structured debate, discussion, revision and voting. Questions were clustered into seven topics: i)Antarctic atmosphere and global connections, ii) Southern Ocean and sea ice in a warming world, iii) ice sheet and sea level, iv) the dynamic Earth, v) life on the precipice, vi) near-Earth space and beyond, and vii) human presence in Antarctica. Answering the questions identified by the horizon scan will require innovative experimental designs, novel applications of technology, invention of next-generation field and laboratory approaches, and expanded observing systems and networks. Unbiased, non-contaminating procedures will be required to retrieve the requisite air, biota, sediment, rock, ice and water samples. Sustained year-round access toAntarctica and the Southern Ocean will be essential to increase winter-time measurements. Improved models are needed that represent Antarctica and the Southern Ocean in the Earth System, and provide predictions at spatial and temporal resolutions useful for decision making. A co-ordinated portfolio of cross-disciplinary science, based on new models of international collaboration, will be essential as no scientist, programme or nation can realize these aspirations alone.Tinker Foundation, Antarctica New Zealand, The New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs (COMNAP), the Alfred Wegner Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar und Meeresforschung (Germany), and the British Antarctic Survey (UK).http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=ANShb201