Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14�294 geography�year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95 uncertainty interval 61·4�61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5�72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7�17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5�70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1 (2·6�5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0 (15·8�18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1 (12·6�16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1 (11·9�14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1, 39·1�44·6), malaria (43·1, 34·7�51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8, 24·8�34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1, 19·3�37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146�000 deaths, 118�000�183�000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393�000 deaths, 228�000�532�000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost YLLs) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Search for heavy resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a Higgs boson in final states with leptons and b-jets in 139 fb−1 of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This article presents a search for new resonances decaying into a Z or W boson and a 125 GeV Higgs boson h, and it targets the νν¯¯¯bb¯¯, ℓ+ℓ−bb¯¯, or ℓ±νbb¯¯ final states, where ℓ = e or μ, in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. The data used correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC at CERN. The search is conducted by examining the reconstructed invariant or transverse mass distributions of Zh or Wh candidates for evidence of a localised excess in the mass range from 220 GeV to 5 TeV. No significant excess is observed and 95% confidence-level upper limits between 1.3 pb and 0.3 fb are placed on the production cross section times branching fraction of neutral and charged spin-1 resonances and CP-odd scalar bosons. These limits are converted into constraints on the parameter space of the Heavy Vector Triplet model and the two-Higgs-doublet model

Evidence for the charge asymmetry in pp → tt¯ production at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Inclusive and differential measurements of the top–antitop (tt¯) charge asymmetry Att¯C and the leptonic asymmetry Aℓℓ¯C are presented in proton–proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurement uses the complete Run 2 dataset, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1, combines data in the single-lepton and dilepton channels, and employs reconstruction techniques adapted to both the resolved and boosted topologies. A Bayesian unfolding procedure is performed to correct for detector resolution and acceptance effects. The combined inclusive tt¯ charge asymmetry is measured to be Att¯C = 0.0068 ± 0.0015, which differs from zero by 4.7 standard deviations. Differential measurements are performed as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum and longitudinal boost of the tt¯ system. Both the inclusive and differential measurements are found to be compatible with the Standard Model predictions, at next-to-next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics perturbation theory with next-to-leading-order electroweak corrections. The measurements are interpreted in the framework of the Standard Model effective field theory, placing competitive bounds on several Wilson coefficients

Measurements of Zγ+jets differential cross sections in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Differential cross-section measurements of Zγ production in association with hadronic jets are presented, using the full 139 fb−1 dataset of s√ = 13 TeV proton–proton collisions collected by the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the LHC. Distributions are measured using events in which the Z boson decays leptonically and the photon is usually radiated from an initial-state quark. Measurements are made in both one and two observables, including those sensitive to the hard scattering in the event and others which probe additional soft and collinear radiation. Different Standard Model predictions, from both parton-shower Monte Carlo simulation and fixed-order QCD calculations, are compared with the measurements. In general, good agreement is observed between data and predictions from MATRIX and MiNNLOPS, as well as next-to-leading-order predictions from MADGRAPH5_AMC@NLO and SHERPA

Search for third-generation vector-like leptons in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for vector-like leptons in multilepton (two, three, or four-or-more electrons plus muons) final states with zero or more hadronic τ-lepton decays is presented. The search is performed using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. To maximize the separation of signal and background, a machine-learning classifier is used. No excess of events is observed beyond the Standard Model expectation. Using a doublet vector-like lepton model, vector-like leptons coupling to third-generation Standard Model leptons are excluded in the mass range from 130 GeV to 900 GeV at the 95% confidence level, while the highest excluded mass is expected to be 970 GeV

A search for new resonances in multiple final states with a high transverse momentum Z boson in s√ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A generic search for resonances is performed with events containing a Z boson with transverse momentum greater than 100 GeV, decaying into e+e− or μ+μ−. The analysed data collected with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider correspond to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Two invariant mass distributions are examined for a localised excess relative to the expected Standard Model background in six independent event categories (and their inclusive sum) to increase the sensitivity. No significant excess is observed. Exclusion limits at 95% confidence level are derived for two cases: a model-independent interpretation of Gaussian-shaped resonances with the mass width between 3% and 10% of the resonance mass, and a specific heavy vector triplet model with the decay mode W′ → ZW → ℓℓqq

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section in pp collisions at s√ = 5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive top-quark pair (tt¯) production cross-section σtt¯ is measured in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy s√ = 5.02 TeV, using 257 pb−1 of data collected in 2017 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. The tt¯ cross-section is measured in both the dilepton and single-lepton final states of the tt¯ system and then combined. The combination of the two measurements yields σtt¯=67.5±0.9(stat.)±2.3(syst.)±1.1(lumi.)±0.2(beam)pb, where the four uncertainties reflect the limited size of the data sample, experimental and theoretical systematic effects, and imperfect knowledge of both the integrated luminosity and the LHC beam energy, giving a total uncertainty of 3.9%. The result is in agreement with theoretical quantum chromodynamic calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in the strong coupling constant, including the resummation of next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic soft-gluon terms, and constrains the parton distribution functions of the proton at large Bjorken-x

Measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in association with a photon with the ATLAS experiment

A measurement of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair (tt¯) production in association with a photon is presented. The measurement is performed in the single-lepton tt¯ decay channel using proton–proton collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN at a centre-of-massenergy of 13 TeV during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. The charge asymmetry is obtained from the distribution of the difference of the absolute rapidities of the top quark and antiquark using a profile likelihood unfolding approach. It is measured to be AC = −0.003 ± 0.029 in agreement with the Standard Model expectation

Measurement of electroweak Z(νν) γjj production and limits on anomalous quartic gauge couplings in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The electroweak production of Z(νν¯¯¯)γ in association with two jets is studied in a regime with a photon of high transverse momentum above 150 GeV using proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis uses a data sample with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1 collected by the ATLAS detector during the 2015–2018 LHC data-taking period. This process is an important probe of the electroweak symmetry breaking mechanism in the Standard Model and is sensitive to quartic gauge boson couplings via vector-boson scattering. The fiducial Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj cross section for electroweak production is measured to be 0.77+0.34−0.30 fb and is consistent with the Standard Model prediction. Evidence of electroweak Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj production is found with an observed significance of 3.2σ for the background-only hypothesis, compared with an expected significance of 3.7σ. The combination of this result with the previously published ATLAS observation of electroweak Z(νν¯¯¯)γjj production yields an observed (expected) signal significance of 6.3σ (6.6σ). Limits on anomalous quartic gauge boson couplings are obtained in the framework of effective field theory with dimension-8 operators

Search for a new scalar resonance in flavour-changing neutral-current top-quark decays t → qX (q = u, c), with X → bb¯¯, in proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for flavour-changing neutral-current decays of a top quark into an up-type quark (either up or charm) and a light scalar particle X decaying into a bottom anti-bottom quark pair is presented. The search focuses on top-quark pair production where one top quark decays to qX, with X → bb¯¯, and the other top quark decays according to the Standard Model, with the W boson decaying leptonically. The final state is thus characterised by an isolated electron or muon and at least four jets. Events are categorised according to the multiplicity of jets and jets tagged as originating from b-quarks, and a neural network is used to discriminate between signal and background processes. The data analysed correspond to 139 fb−1 of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The 95% confidence-level upper limits between 0.019% and 0.062% are derived for the branching fraction B(t → uX) and between 0.018% and 0.078% for the branching fraction B(t → cX), for masses of the scalar particle X between 20 and 160 GeV