Gamblers' Rationality in Parimutuel Soccer Betting

A model for strategic behaviour in parimutuel gambles with unequal winning-probabilities is developed and applied to gambles based on soccer results. Assuming that the bookmakers' quotas reflect the true probability of each possible result of a soccer game, we are able to derive a formula for the expected payoff of a betting strategy (Tipp). Using recent (1996-99) data from the Austrian games Toto and Torwette we are able to calculate the optimal strategies for 90 Toto and Torwette rounds. It turns out that given the relatively high probability of a rollover, it is optimal to overbet favourite outcomes (as compared to the probability of their occurrence). Comparing optimal with actual gamblers' behaviour we find that overbetting is even more pronounced than predicted by the model. This means that gamblers bet too frequently on relatively probable results whereas less probable results are too infrequently chosen relatively to the optimal strategy.Decision making under risk and uncertainty, Parimutuel betting, Sports, Gambling

Lauenen. Reformierte Pfarrkirche. Ergebnisse der Bauforschungen von 1983/84

Restaurierungsarbeiten an der Kirche von Lauenen veranlassten, in verschiedenen Etappen zwischen Sommer 1983 und Januar 1984 archäologische und baugeschichtliche Untersuchungen durchzuführen. Die Publikation umfasst die Ergebnisse zu den Funden und Befunden der Vorgängerkirche aus dem 16. Jh. und deren Veränderungen seit der Reformation. Es fügen sich die Auswertung der Münzen und ihrer Bedeutung für die Datierung sowie die Resultate der anthropologischen Untersuchungen an den Skeletten an

Morphology Of Current Of Injury Does Not Predict Long Term Active Fixation ICD Lead Performance

Background: Currents of injury (COI) have been associated with improved lead performance during perioperative measurements in pacemaker and ICD implants. Their relevance on long term lead stability remains unclear.Methods: Unipolar signals were recorded immediately after active fixation ICD lead positioning, blinded to the implanting surgeon. Signals were assigned to prespecified COI types by two independent investigators. Sensing, pacing as well as changes requiring surgical intervention were prospectively investigated for 3 months.Results: 105 consecutive ICD lead implants were studied. All could be assigned to a particular COI with 48 type 1, 43 type 2 and 14 type 3 signals. Pacing impedance at implant was 703.8±151.6 Ohm with a significant COI independent drop within the first week. Sensing was 10.6mV± 3.7mV and pacing threshold at implant was 0.8±0.3mV at 0.5ms at implant. There was no significant difference between COI groups at implant and during a 3 months follow up regarding sensing, pacing nor surgical revisions.Conclusions: Three distinct patterns of unipolar endocardial potentials were observed in active fixation ICD lead implant, but COI morphology did not predict lead performance after 3 months

Validation of chemical analyses of atmospheric deposition on forested sites in Europe: 2. DOC concentration as an estimator of the organic ion charge

A Working Group on Quality Assurance/Quality Control of analyses in laboratories active in the chemical analysis of atmospheric deposition and soil water has been created within the framework of the Integrated Co-operative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (UN-ECE/ICP Forests) and the EU/Forest Focus Programme (Regulation 2152/2003). This paper is a follow up to an earlier paper dealing with the validation of chemical analyses, in which validation techniques (ion balance, comparison between measured and calculated conductivity, Na/Cl ratio and relationship between different forms of N) were tested on a set of real analysis data obtained from different laboratories. This paper focuses on the validation of chemical analysis of samples containing high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (> 5 mg C L-1), where the ion balance criterion fails because of the presence of weak organic acids. About 6000 chemical analyses of bulk open field, throughfall and stemflow samples, which contained complete sets of all ion concentrations, conductivity and DOC, produced in 8 different laboratories, were used to calculate empirical relationships between DOC and the difference between the sum of cations and the sum of anions, with the aim to evaluate a formal charge per mg of organic C. Regression coefficients were obtained for data from each laboratory, as well as for all the data combined. The coefficients were further tested using an independent set of data from each country. The differences between the individual laboratory and the overall regression coefficients are discussed. The results are also considered in the light of formal charge values for DOC/TOC obtained in studies on freshwater. The formal DOC charge proved to be useful for estimating the contribution of organic acids in the ion balance test, thus considerably improving the applicability of the ion balance as a validation criterion for samples with high DOC values

The Effect of Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Therapy on Skeletal Muscle Lipid Content in Obese and Nonobese Men.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), independently of obesity (OBS), predisposes to insulin resistance (IR) for largely unknown reasons. Because OSA-related intermittent hypoxia triggers lipolysis, overnight increases in circulating free fatty acids (FFAs) including palmitic acid (PA) may lead to ectopic intramuscular lipid accumulation potentially contributing to IR. Using 3-T-1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we therefore compared intramyocellular and extramyocellular lipid (IMCL and EMCL) in the vastus lateralis muscle at approximately 7 am between 26 male patients with moderate-to-severe OSA (17 obese, 9 nonobese) and 23 healthy male controls (12 obese, 11 nonobese). Fiber type composition was evaluated by muscle biopsies. Moreover, we measured fasted FFAs including PA, glycated hemoglobin A1c, thigh subcutaneous fat volume (ScFAT, 1.5-T magnetic resonance tomography), and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). Fourteen patients were reassessed after continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Total FFAs and PA were significantly (by 178% and 166%) higher in OSA patients vs controls and correlated with the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (r ≥ 0.45, P < .01). Moreover, IMCL and EMCL were 55% (P < .05) and 40% (P < .05) higher in OSA patients, that is, 114% and 103% in nonobese, 24.4% and 8.4% in obese participants (with higher control levels). Overall, PA, FFAs (minus PA), and ScFAT significantly contributed to IMCL (multiple r = 0.568, P = .002). CPAP significantly decreased EMCL (-26%) and, by trend only, IMCL, total FFAs, and PA. Muscle fiber composition was unaffected by OSA or CPAP. Increases in IMCL and EMCL are detectable at approximately 7 am in OSA patients and are partly attributable to overnight FFA excesses and high ScFAT or body mass index. CPAP decreases FFAs and IMCL by trend but significantly reduces EMCL

Resummation of the Divergent Perturbation Series for a Hydrogen Atom in an Electric Field

We consider the resummation of the perturbation series describing the energy displacement of a hydrogenic bound state in an electric field (known as the Stark effect or the LoSurdo-Stark effect), which constitutes a divergent formal power series in the electric field strength. The perturbation series exhibits a rich singularity structure in the Borel plane. Resummation methods are presented which appear to lead to consistent results even in problematic cases where isolated singularities or branch cuts are present on the positive and negative real axis in the Borel plane. Two resummation prescriptions are compared: (i) a variant of the Borel-Pade resummation method, with an additional improvement due to utilization of the leading renormalon poles (for a comprehensive discussion of renormalons see [M. Beneke, Phys. Rep. vol. 317, p. 1 (1999)]), and (ii) a contour-improved combination of the Borel method with an analytic continuation by conformal mapping, and Pade approximations in the conformal variable. The singularity structure in the case of the LoSurdo-Stark effect in the complex Borel plane is shown to be similar to (divergent) perturbative expansions in quantum chromodynamics.Comment: 14 pages, RevTeX, 3 tables, 1 figure; numerical accuracy of results enhanced; one section and one appendix added and some minor changes and additions; to appear in phys. rev.

Serum amyloid A: high-density lipoproteins interaction and cardiovascular risk

Aims High-density lipoproteins (HDLs) are considered as anti-atherogenic. Recent experimental findings suggest that their biological properties can be modified in certain clinical conditions by accumulation of serum amyloid A (SAA). The effect of SAA on the association between HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) and cardiovascular outcome remains unknown. Methods and results We examined the association of SAA and HDL-C with mortality in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study, which included 3310 patients undergoing coronary angiography. To validate our findings, we analysed 1255 participants of the German Diabetes and Dialysis study (4D) and 4027 participants of the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) S4 study. In LURIC, SAA concentrations predicted all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In patients with low SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with lower all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. In contrast, in patients with high SAA, higher HDL-C was associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, indicating that SAA indeed modifies the beneficial properties of HDL. We complemented these clinical observations by in vitro experiments, in which SAA impaired vascular functions of HDL. We further derived a formula for the simple calculation of the amount of biologically ‘effective' HDL-C based on measured HDL-C and SAA from the LURIC study. In 4D and KORA S4 studies, we found that measured HDL-C was not associated with clinical outcomes, whereas calculated ‘effective' HDL-C significantly predicted better outcome. Conclusion The acute-phase protein SAA modifies the biological effects of HDL-C in several clinical conditions. The concomitant measurement of SAA is a simple, useful, and clinically applicable surrogate for the vascular functionality of HD

Relations between lipoprotein(a) concentrations, LPA genetic variants, and the risk of mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease: a molecular and genetic association study

Background: Lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma are associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population. Whether lipoprotein(a) concentrations or LPA genetic variants predict long-term mortality in patients with established coronary heart disease remains less clear. Methods: We obtained data from 3313 patients with established coronary heart disease in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) study. We tested associations of tertiles of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma and two LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms ([SNPs] rs10455872 and rs3798220) with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality by Cox regression analysis and with severity of disease by generalised linear modelling, with and without adjustment for age, sex, diabetes diagnosis, systolic blood pressure, BMI, smoking status, estimated glomerular filtration rate, LDL-cholesterol concentration, and use of lipid-lowering therapy. Results for plasma lipoprotein(a) concentrations were validated in five independent studies involving 10 195 patients with established coronary heart disease. Results for genetic associations were replicated through large-scale collaborative analysis in the GENIUS-CHD consortium, comprising 106 353 patients with established coronary heart disease and 19 332 deaths in 22 studies or cohorts. Findings: The median follow-up was 9·9 years. Increased severity of coronary heart disease was associated with lipoprotein(a) concentrations in plasma in the highest tertile (adjusted hazard radio [HR] 1·44, 95% CI 1·14–1·83) and the presence of either LPA SNP (1·88, 1·40–2·53). No associations were found in LURIC with all-cause mortality (highest tertile of lipoprotein(a) concentration in plasma 0·95, 0·81–1·11 and either LPA SNP 1·10, 0·92–1·31) or cardiovascular mortality (0·99, 0·81–1·2 and 1·13, 0·90–1·40, respectively) or in the validation studies. Interpretation: In patients with prevalent coronary heart disease, lipoprotein(a) concentrations and genetic variants showed no associations with mortality. We conclude that these variables are not useful risk factors to measure to predict progression to death after coronary heart disease is established. Funding: Seventh Framework Programme for Research and Technical Development (AtheroRemo and RiskyCAD), INTERREG IV Oberrhein Programme, Deutsche Nierenstiftung, Else-Kroener Fresenius Foundation, Deutsche Stiftung für Herzforschung, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Saarland University, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Willy Robert Pitzer Foundation, and Waldburg-Zeil Clinics Isny

The High-Acceptance Dielectron Spectrometer HADES

HADES is a versatile magnetic spectrometer aimed at studying dielectron production in pion, proton and heavy-ion induced collisions. Its main features include a ring imaging gas Cherenkov detector for electron-hadron discrimination, a tracking system consisting of a set of 6 superconducting coils producing a toroidal field and drift chambers and a multiplicity and electron trigger array for additional electron-hadron discrimination and event characterization. A two-stage trigger system enhances events containing electrons. The physics program is focused on the investigation of hadron properties in nuclei and in the hot and dense hadronic matter. The detector system is characterized by an 85% azimuthal coverage over a polar angle interval from 18 to 85 degree, a single electron efficiency of 50% and a vector meson mass resolution of 2.5%. Identification of pions, kaons and protons is achieved combining time-of-flight and energy loss measurements over a large momentum range. This paper describes the main features and the performance of the detector system