Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Potentiale zur Integration von Elektrofahrzeugen in innerstädtischen Verkehrsstrukturen : Schlußbericht zum Forschungs- und Entwicklungsvorhaben FE-Nr. 70386/92 des Bundesministers für Verkehr, Bonn

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht, aufgrund umfangreicher Erfahrungen aus Praxistests, welche Energie in kWh/km bisher gebaute Elektrofahrzeuge mit unterschiedlichen Batterien bei unterschiedlichen Tagesfahrleistungen verbrauchen. Die für die Ladung der Traktionsbatterien notwendigen "Stromtankstellen", unterteilt in Haupt- und Nachladestellen, können auf der Basis der vorhandenen Technik installiert werden, wobei Normungen durchgeführt und Genehmigungsverfahren vereinfacht werden sollten. Hauptladestellen werden hauptsächlich Steckdosen in Garagen und privaten Parkanlagen sein, die mit geringen Kosten installierbar sind. Durch den Ersatz von Fahrzeugen mit konventionellem Otto- und Dieselantrieb durch Elektrofahrzeuge läßt sich der verkehrsbedingte CO2-Ausstoß mindern, wenn die CO2-Emissionen bei der Bereitstellung des elektrischen Stroms geringer sind als die mit der Nutzung fossiler Treibstoffe verbundenen Emissionen. Eine Minderung der CO2-Emissionen bei der Stromemerzeugung kann insbesondere durch die Nutzung von CO2-freien Energieträgern erreicht werden. Das Forschungsvorhaben zeigt, daß Elektrofahrzeuge kaufbar sind, die Infrastruktur für ihre Energieversorgung mit der heutigen Technik geschaffen und die Energie für 2 Mio. Elektrofahrzeuge von dem heutigen Kraftwerkspark - vor allem während der Nacht - zur Verfügung gestellt werden kann

Precision of the current methods to measure the alkenone proxy UK'37 and absolute alkenone abundance in sediments : results of an interlaboratory comparison study

Measurements of the UK'37 index and the absolute abundance of alkenones in marine sediments are increasingly used in paleoceanographic research as proxies of past sea surface temperature and haptophyte (mainly coccolith-bearing species) primary productivity, respectively. An important aspect of these studies is to be able to compare reliably data obtained by different laboratories from a wide variety of locations. Hence the intercomparability of data produced by the research community is essential. Here we report results from an anonymous interlaboratory comparison study involving 24 of the leading laboratories that carry out alkenone measurements worldwide. The majority of laboratories produce data that are intercomparable within the considered confidence limits. For the measurement of alkenone concentrations, however, there are systematic biases between laboratories, which might be related to the techniques employed to quantify the components. The maximum difference between any two laboratories for any two single measurements of UK'37 in sediments is estimated, with a probability of 95%, to be <2.18C. In addition, the overall within-laboratory precision for the UK'37 temperature estimates is estimated to be <1.68C (95% probability). Similarly, from the analyses of alkenone concentrations the interlaboratory reproducibility is estimated at 32%, and the repeatability is estimated at 24%. The former is compared to a theoretical estimate of reproducibility and found to be excessively high. Hence there is certainly scope and a demonstrable need to improve reproducibility and repeatability of UK'37 and especially alkenone quantification data across the community of scientists involved in alkenone research

Applying Bayesian model averaging for uncertainty estimation of input data in energy modelling

Background Energy scenarios that are used for policy advice have ecological and social impact on society. Policy measures that are based on modelling exercises may lead to far reaching financial and ecological consequences. The purpose of this study is to raise awareness that energy modelling results are accompanied with uncertainties that should be addressed explicitly. Methods With view to existing approaches of uncertainty assessment in energy economics and climate science, relevant requirements for an uncertainty assessment are defined. An uncertainty assessment should be explicit, independent of the assessor&#8217;s expertise, applicable to different models, including subjective quantitative and statistical quantitative aspects, intuitively understandable and be reproducible. Bayesian model averaging for input variables of energy models is discussed as method that satisfies these requirements. A definition of uncertainty based on posterior model probabilities of input variables to energy models is presented. Results The main findings are that (1) expert elicitation as predominant assessment method does not satisfy all requirements, (2) Bayesian model averaging for input variable modelling meets the requirements and allows evaluating a vast amount of potentially relevant influences on input variables and (3) posterior model probabilities of input variable models can be translated in uncertainty associated with the input variable. Conclusions An uncertainty assessment of energy scenarios is relevant if policy measures are (partially) based on modelling exercises. Potential implications of these findings include that energy scenarios could be associated with uncertainty that is presently neither assessed explicitly nor communicated adequately

Precision of the current methods to measure the alkenone proxy U₃₇ K’ and absolute alkenone abundance in sediments: results of an interlaboratory comparison study

Measurements of the U₃₇ K’ index and the absolute abundance of alkenones in marine sediments are increasingly used in paleoceanographic research as proxies of past sea surface temperature and haptophyte (mainly coccolith-bearing species) primary productivity, respectively. An important aspect of these studies is to be able to compare reliably data obtained by different laboratories from a wide variety of locations. Hence the intercomparability of data produced by the research community is essential. Here we report results from an anonymous interlaboratory comparison study involving 24 of the leading laboratories that carry out alkenone measurements worldwide. The majority of laboratories produce data that are intercomparable within the considered confidence limits. For the measurement of alkenone concentrations, however, there are systematic biases between laboratories, which might be related to the techniques employed to quantify the components. The maximum difference between any two laboratories for any two single measurements of U₃₇ K’ in sediments is estimated, with a probability of 95%, to be <2.1°C. In addition, the overall within-laboratory precision for the U₃₇ K’ temperature estimates is estimated to be <1.6°C (95% probability). Similarly, from the analyses of alkenone concentrations the interlaboratory reproducibility is estimated at 32%, and the repeatability is estimated at 24%. The former is compared to a theoretical estimate of reproducibility and found to be excessively high. Hence there is certainly scope and a demonstrable need to improve reproducibility and repeatability of U₃₇ K’ and especially alkenone quantification data across the community of scientists involved in alkenone research

KDS - ein System zur Entscheidungsunterstuetzung in Energiewirtschaft und Energiepolitik

SIGLEAvailable from TIB Hannover: RO 9712(1) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekDEGerman