The influence of calibration curve construction and composition on the accuracy and precision of radiocarbon wiggle-matching of tree rings, illustrated by Southern Hemisphere atmospheric data sets from ad 1500–1950

This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval

The 5.2 ka climate event: Evidence from stable isotope and multi-proxy palaeoecological peatland records in Ireland

AbstractEvidence for a major climate event at 5.2 ka has been reported globally and is associated with considerable societal disruption, but is poorly characterised in northwest Europe. This event forms part of a broader period of re-organisation in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere circulation system between 6 and 5 ka. This study tests the nature and timing of the event in northwest Europe, a region highly sensitive to change in meridional overturning circulation and mid-latitude westerly airflow. Here we report three high-resolution Irish multi-proxy records obtained from ombrotrophic peatlands that have robust chronological frameworks. We identify the 5.2 ka event by a sustained decrease in δ18Ocellulose at all three sites, with additional and parallel changes in δ13Ccellulose and palaeoecological (testate amoebae, plant macrofossil and humification) data from two sites in northern Ireland. Data from Sluggan Moss demonstrate a particularly coherent shift towards wetter conditions. These data support the hypothesis that the event was caused by a prolonged period of positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions, resulting in pervasive cyclonic weather patterns across northwest Europe, increasing precipitation over Ireland

Drivers of abrupt Holocene shifts in West Antarctic ice stream direction from combined ice sheet modelling and geologic signatures

Determining the millennial-scale behaviour of marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is critical to improve predictions of the future contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Here high-resolution ice sheet modelling was combined with new terrestrial geological constraints (in situ14C and 10Be analysis) to reconstruct the evolution of two major ice streams entering the Weddell Sea over 20 000 years. The results demonstrate how marked differences in ice flux at the marine margin of the expanded Antarctic ice sheet led to a major reorganization of ice streams in the Weddell Sea during the last deglaciation, resulting in the eastward migration of the Institute Ice Stream, triggering a significant regional change in ice sheet mass balance during the early to mid Holocene. The findings highlight how spatial variability in ice flow can cause marked changes in the pattern, flux and flow direction of ice streams on millennial timescales in this marine ice sheet setting. Given that this sector of the WAIS is assumed to be sensitive to ocean-forced instability and may be influenced by predicted twenty-first century ocean warming, our ability to model and predict abrupt and extensive ice stream diversions is key to a realistic assessment of future ice sheet sensitivity

The role of genetic selection and climatic factors in the dispersal of anatomically modern humans out of Africa.

The evolutionarily recent dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH) out of Africa (OoA) and across Eurasia provides a unique opportunity to examine the impacts of genetic selection as humans adapted to multiple new environments. Analysis of ancient Eurasian genomic datasets (~1,000 to 45,000 y old) reveals signatures of strong selection, including at least 57 hard sweeps after the initial AMH movement OoA, which have been obscured in modern populations by extensive admixture during the Holocene. The spatiotemporal patterns of these hard sweeps provide a means to reconstruct early AMH population dispersals OoA. We identify a previously unsuspected extended period of genetic adaptation lasting ~30,000 y, potentially in the Arabian Peninsula area, prior to a major Neandertal genetic introgression and subsequent rapid dispersal across Eurasia as far as Australia. Consistent functional targets of selection initiated during this period, which we term the Arabian Standstill, include loci involved in the regulation of fat storage, neural development, skin physiology, and cilia function. Similar adaptive signatures are also evident in introgressed archaic hominin loci and modern Arctic human groups, and we suggest that this signal represents selection for cold adaptation. Surprisingly, many of the candidate selected loci across these groups appear to directly interact and coordinately regulate biological processes, with a number associated with major modern diseases including the ciliopathies, metabolic syndrome, and neurodegenerative disorders. This expands the potential for ancestral human adaptation to directly impact modern diseases, providing a platform for evolutionary medicine.Raymond Tobler, Yassine Souilmi, Christian D. Huber, and Alan Coope

Drivers of abrupt Holocene shifts in West Antarctic ice stream direction determined from combined ice sheet modelling and geologic signatures

Determining the millennial-scale behaviour of marine-based sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is critical to improve predictions of the future contribution of Antarctica to sea level rise. Here high-resolution ice sheet modelling was combined with new terrestrial geological constraints (in situ 14C and 10Be analysis) to reconstruct the evolution of two major ice streams entering the Weddell Sea over 20 000 years. The results demonstrate how marked differences in ice flux at the marine margin of the expanded Antarctic ice sheet led to a major reorganization of ice streams in the Weddell Sea during the last deglaciation, resulting in the eastward migration of the Institute Ice Stream, triggering a significant regional change in ice sheet mass balance during the early to mid Holocene. The findings highlight how spatial variability in ice flow can cause marked changes in the pattern, flux and flow direction of ice streams on millennial timescales in this marine ice sheet setting. Given that this sector of the WAIS is assumed to be sensitive to ocean-forced instability and may be influenced by predicted twenty-first century ocean warming, our ability to model and predict abrupt and extensive ice stream diversions is key to a realistic assessment of future ice sheet sensitivit

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000–11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved ‘horizontal ice core’ from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600–12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise

SHCal20 Southern Hemisphere Calibration, 0–55,000 Years cal BP

Early researchers of radiocarbon levels in Southern Hemisphere tree rings identified a variable North-South hemispheric offset, necessitating construction of a separate radiocarbon calibration curve for the South. We present here SHCal20, a revised calibration curve from 0–55,000 cal BP, based upon SHCal13 and fortified by the addition of 14 new tree-ring data sets in the 2140–0, 3520–3453, 3608–3590 and 13,140–11,375 cal BP time intervals. We detail the statistical approaches used for curve construction and present recommendations for the use of the Northern Hemisphere curve (IntCal20), the Southern Hemisphere curve (SHCal20) and suggest where application of an equal mixture of the curves might be more appropriate. Using our Bayesian spline with errors-in-variables methodology, and based upon a comparison of Southern Hemisphere tree-ring data compared with contemporaneous Northern Hemisphere data, we estimate the mean Southern Hemisphere offset to be 36 ± 27 14C yrs older

The ‘4.2 kyr event’ in the British Isles: evidence for an abrupt climate event in the North Atlantic?

Palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data from several regions around the world show evidence of a multi-centennial climatic event occurring approximately 4.2 cal. kyr BP. Abrupt climate change events (ACCs) in the early-Holocene were dominated by meltwater pulse events associated with the final stages of deglaciation, a mechanism unlikely to have driven subsequent ACCs in the mid- and late-Holocene. A study of the ‘4.2 kyr event’ therefore provides an opportunity to study ACCs in the context of comparable environmental conditions to those of the modern day, thus providing valuable lessons for the future. Whilst the climatic change and/or impact of the 4.2 kyr event is clear in certain regions (such as southwest Asia), more work must be done to disentangle the timing and magnitude of change at this time in other regions, including northwest Europe. A more comprehensive reconstruction of the event’s spatial and temporal variability will help determine the likely drivers of this event. Here we present the results of a multi-proxy examination of a peat sequence from Sluggan Moss, Northern Ireland. A range of palaeohydrological proxy analyses have been undertaken, including: humification, plant macrofossil and testate amoebae analyses. Furthermore, stable isotopic analysis (13C and 18O) of Sphagnum ?-cellulose presents an opportunity to examine changes in atmospheric circulation across the 4.2 kyr event. The chronological resolution on the sequence is exceptionally high, providing an excellent opportunity to determine the synchroneity of the climatic signal across the North Atlantic region around 4.2 cal. kyr BP

Roddans Port Late glacial site

No abstract available