A Comprehensive Study of the Alteration of Ignitable Liquids by Weathering and Microbial Degradation

The differing effects of weathering and microbial degradation are described here in a comprehensive study that involved 50 different ignitable liquids from the Ignitable Liquids Database and Reference Collection. Examples of ignitable liquid residues from each of the main classes established by the American Society of Testing and Materials are presented. Weathering was accomplished via evaporation, whereas microbial degradation was carried out on soil at room temperature for periods of up to 21 days. Major trends included the rapid degradation of long n-alkanes and monosubstituted alkyl benzenes (e.g., toluene, ethylbenzene, and propylbenzene). Surprisingly, some longer branched alkanes (e.g., trimethyloctanes) were also susceptible to microbial attack. Although all ignitable liquids examined suffered at least to some extent from microbial degradation, gasoline, petroleum distillates, and oxygenates were the most susceptible. Isoparaffinic and naphthenic–paraffinic products were the most resistant to microbial degradation

Microbial Degradation of Gasoline in Soil: Effect of Season of Sampling

In cases where fire debris contains soil, microorganisms can rapidly and irreversibly alter the chemical composition of any ignitable liquid residue that may be present. In this study, differences in microbial degradation due to the season in which the sample is collected was examined. Soil samples were collected from the same site during Fall, Winter, Spring and Summer and the degradation of gasoline was monitored over 30 days. Predominant viable bacterial populations enumerated using real-time PCR and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) enumeration revealed the predominant viable bacterial genera to be Alcaligenes, Bacillus, and Flavobacterium. Overall, the compounds most vulnerable to microbial degradation are the n-alkanes, followed by the mono-substituted alkylbenzenes (e.g., toluene, ethylbenzene, propylbenzene and isopropylbenzene). Benzaldehyde (a degradation product of toluene) was also identified as a marker for the extent of biodegradation. Ultimately, it was determined that soil collected during an unusually hot and dry summer exhibited the least degradation with little to no change in gasoline for up to 4 days, readily detectable n-alkanes for up to 7 days and relatively high levels of resilient compounds such as o-xylene, p-xylene and 1,3,5-trimethylbenzene. These results demonstrate, however, that prompt preservation and/or analysis of soil evidence is required in order to properly classify an ignitable liquid residue

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the summer season (June to September). Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of this circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind stress curl, and upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed coupled ocean-atmosphere system variability timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon subseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet

Comparison of surface albedo feedback in climate models and observations

Snow and ice albedo feedback plays an important role in the greater warming of the Arctic compared to the tropics. Previous work has estimated the observed Northern Hemisphere cryosphere feedback, but there have been no estimates of surface albedo feedback from observations globally. Here we compare the zonal mean surface albedo feedback from satellite data sets with that from eleven ocean-atmosphere coupled climate models for both climate change and the seasonal cycle. Differences between observed data sets make it difficult to constrain models. Nevertheless, we find that climate change Northern Hemisphere extratropical feedback is considerably higher for observations (potentially 3.1±1.3Wm-2K-1) than models (0.4-1.2Wm-2K-1), whereas the seasonal cycle feedback is similar in observations and models, casting doubt on the ability of the seasonal cycle to accurately predict the climate change feedback. Observed Antarctic sea ice feedback is strongly positive in the seasonal cycle and similar to models

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Evidence of Introgression of the ace-1R Mutation and of the ace-1 Duplication in West African Anopheles gambiae s. s

Background: The role of inter-specific hybridisation is of particular importance in mosquito disease vectors for predicting the evolution of insecticide resistance. Two molecular forms of Anopheles gambiae s.s., currently recognized as S and M taxa, are considered to be incipient sibling species. Hybrid scarcity in the field was suggested that differentiation of M and S taxa is maintained by limited or absent gene flow. However, recent studies have revealed shared polymorphisms within the M and S forms, and a better understanding of the occurrence of gene flow is needed. One such shared polymorphism is the G119S mutation in the ace-1 gene (which is responsible for insecticide resistance); this mutation has been described in both the M and S forms of A. gambiae s.s. Methods and Results: To establish whether the G119S mutation has arisen independently in each form or by genetic introgression, we analysed coding and non-coding sequences of ace-1 alleles in M and S mosquitoes from representative field populations. Our data revealed many polymorphic sites shared by S and M forms, but no diversity was associated with the G119S mutation. These results indicate that the G119S mutation was a unique event and that genetic introgression explains the observed distribution of the G119S mutation within the two forms. However, it was impossible to determine from our data whether the mutation occurred first in the S form or in the M form. Unexpectedly, sequence analysis of some resistant individuals revealed a duplication of the ace-1 gene that was observed in both A. gambiae s.s. M and S forms. Again, the distribution of this duplication in the two forms most likely occurred through introgression. Conclusions: These results highlight the need for more research to understand the forces driving the evolution of insecticide resistance in malaria vectors and to regularly monitor resistance in mosquito populations of Africa

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts

A Reservoir of Drug-Resistant Pathogenic Bacteria in Asymptomatic Hosts

The population genetics of pathogenic bacteria has been intensively studied in order to understand the spread of disease and the evolution of virulence and drug resistance. However, much less attention has been paid to bacterial carriage populations, which inhabit hosts without producing disease. Since new virulent strains that cause disease can be recruited from the carriage population of bacteria, our understanding of infectious disease is seriously incomplete without knowledge on the population structure of pathogenic bacteria living in an asymptomatic host. We report the first extensive survey of the abundance and diversity of a human pathogen in asymptomatic animal hosts. We have found that asymptomatic swine from livestock productions frequently carry populations of Salmonella enterica with a broad range of drug-resistant strains and genetic diversity greatly exceeding that previously described. This study shows how agricultural practice and human intervention may lead and influence the evolution of a hidden reservoir of pathogens, with important implications for human health

The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability

We investigate the contribution of the local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asia (EA) precipitation and its interannual variability during 1979-2012. We use and expand the \citet{Brubaker_etal_JC_1993} method, which connects the area-mean precipitation to area-mean evaporation and the horizontal moisture flux into the region. Due to its large landmass and hydrological heterogeneity, EA is divided into five sub-regions: Southeast (SE), Tibetan Plateau (TP), Central East (CE), Northwest (NW) and Northeast (NE). For each region, we first separate the contributions to precipitation of local evaporation from those of the horizontal moisture flux by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio: the fraction of precipitation over a region that originates as evaporation from the same region. Then, we separate the horizontal moisture flux across the region's boundaries by direction. We estimate the contributions of the horizontal moisture fluxes from each direction, as well as the local evaporation, to the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. We find that the major contributors to the mean precipitation are not necessarily those that contribute most to the precipitation interannual variability. Over SE, the moisture flux via the southern boundary dominates the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. Over TP, in winter and spring, the moisture flux via the western boundary dominates the mean precipitation; however, variations in local evaporation dominate the precipitation interannual variability. The western moisture flux is the dominant contributor to the mean precipitation over CE, NW and NE. However, the southern or northern moisture flux or the local evaporation dominates the precipitation interannual variability over these regions, depending on the season. Potential mechanisms associated with interannual variability in the moisture flux are identified for each region. The methods and results presented in this study can be readily applied to model simulations, to identify simulation biases in precipitation that relate to the simulated moisture supplies and transport

Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes

Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase