Estimation par densités prédictives

L'inférence statistique est un domaine complexe et en constante évolution. Ce mémoire traitera de l'inférence sur la fonction de densité d'une variable aléatoire. Nous partirons de plusieurs résultats connus et développerons une analyse de ces résultats dans le cadre paramétrique avec une approche bayésienne. Nous nous aventurerons aussi dans les problèmes avec espace paramétrique restreint. L'objectif du travail est de trouver les meilleurs estimateurs possibles considérant l'information a priori et l'observation de variables tirées d'une densité faisant intervenir le paramètre. Le chapitre 1 traitera de notions d'inférence bayésienne, de choix de perte évaluant la performance d'un estimateur et possédant des propriétés recherchées. Le chapitre 2 concernera l'estimation ponctuelle du paramètre. En particulier, nous aborderons l'estimateur de James-Stein et trouverons des conditions suffisantes pour la minimaxité et la dominance d'estimateurs en remarquant la forme particulière de ceux-ci. Une condition remontera même à la loi a priori utilisée. Le chapitre 3 établira des liens entre l'estimation ponctuelle et l'estimation par densité prédictive pour le cas multinormal. Des conditions seront aussi établies pour la minimaxité et la dominance. Nous comparerons nos estimateurs à l'estimateur de Bayes découlant d'une loi a priori non informative et démontrerons les résultats par des exemples. Le chapitre 4 considérera le problème dans un cadre plus général où le paramètre d'intérêt pourra être un paramètre de position ou d'échelle. Des liens entre ces deux problèmes seront énoncés et nous trouverons des conditions sur la famille de densités étudiée pour trouver des estimateurs minimax. Quelques exemples concluront cette section. Finalement, le chapitre 5 est l'intégrale de l'article déposé en collaboration avec Tatsuya Kubokawa, Éric Marchand et William E. Strawderman, concernant l'ensemble du problème étudié dans ce mémoire, à savoir l'estimation par densité prédictive dans un espace paramétrique restreint

Prevalence of respiratory symptoms in an athlete population

AbstractThis study aimed to look at the prevalence and type of respiratory symptoms experienced by athletes and to assess the possible influence on the perception of symptoms of training duration and environment. A group of 698 athletes (107 with diagnosed or self-reported asthma) filled out a questionnaire on their respiratory condition. They exercised either in cold air (n=176), dry air (n=384), humid air (n=95) or mixed dry and humid air (n=43). Past exercise-related symptoms reported by athletes were breathlessness (48.7%), phlegm production (22.8%), wheezing (15.6%), cough (15.2%), and chest tightness (7.4%). Only 25% of asthmatic athletes reported having current exercise-induced symptoms of breathlessness, 21.7%, wheezing and 17.4%, chest tightness; current exercise-induced symptoms of breathlessness, wheezing or chest tightness were also reported, respectively, in 38.9%, 3.6% and 2.7% of athletes without a diagnosis of asthma. The perception of exercise-induced symptoms was not influenced by the duration of training or environment. In conclusion, (1) a minority of asthmatic athletes report troublesome respiratory symptoms with exercise, (2) breathlessness is not more frequently reported in asthmatic athletes than in those without such diagnosis while cough and wheezing are more common in asthmatic subjects and (3) the prevalence of respiratory symptoms is independent of training environment and duration of training

Autonomous quantum error correction of Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill states

The Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) code encodes a logical qubit into a bosonic system with resilience against single-photon loss, the predominant error in most bosonic systems. Here we present experimental results demonstrating quantum error correction of GKP states based on reservoir engineering of a superconducting device. Error correction is made autonomous through an unconditional reset of an auxiliary transmon qubit. The lifetime of the logical qubit is shown to be increased from quantum error correction, therefore reaching the point at which more errors are corrected than generated.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures + 26 pages, 12 figure

Quantification of the chemical reactivity of molten nitrate salts with heat treatable aluminum alloys

This work explores the conditions for safe heat treatment of aluminum alloys containing lithium and magnesium in molten sodium nitrate (NaNO3) bath furnaces, and conditions where industrial accidents may occur. Using calorimetry coupled to classical thermodynamics, the strength of classical thermodynamics when analyzing thermal curves was demonstrated through a series of small-scale thermal analyses of various aluminum alloys in contact with sodium nitrate. This system was selected to illustrate reactions that may lead to severe and violent heat effect phenomena. Using idealized binary alloys, severe oxidation of magnesium- and lithium-rich aluminum alloy samples were shown to occur near 500 °C, a temperature range dangerously close to the operating temperature of solution heat treatment furnaces in manufacturing processes of heat treatable aluminum alloy sheets used in the aerospace industry. Commercial aluminum alloys AW257, 2198, 2024, and 1050 were also assessed with the same tools. The temperature that needed to be reached for these commercial aluminum alloys to react with molten sodium nitrate was significantly higher than the normal operating temperature of a conventional solution heat treatment furnace

Circulating estradiol and its biologically active metabolites in endometriosis and in relation to pain symptoms

ObjectivesEndometriosis (EM) is an estrogen-dominant inflammatory disease linked to infertility that affects women of reproductive age. EM lesions respond to hormonal signals that regulate uterine tissue growth and trigger inflammation and pain. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether estradiol (E2) and its biologically active metabolites are differentially associated with EM given their estrogenic and non-estrogenic actions including proliferative and inflammatory properties.DesignWe performed a retrospective study of 209 EM cases and 115 women without EM.MethodsPain-related outcomes were assessed using surveys with validated scales. Preoperative serum levels of estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1), their 2-, 4- and 16- hydroxylated (OH) and methylated (MeO) derivatives (n=16) were measured by mass spectrometry. We evaluated the associations between estrogen levels and EM anatomic sites, surgical stage, risk of EM, and symptoms reported by women. Spearman correlations established the relationships between circulating steroids.ResultsOf the sixteen estrogens profiled, eleven were detected above quantification limits in most individuals. Steroids were positively correlated, except 2-hydroxy 3MeO-E1 (2OH-3MeO-E1). Higher 2OH-3MeO-E1 was linked to an increased risk of EM (Odd ratio (OR)=1.91 (95%CI 1.09-3.34); P=0.025). Ovarian EM cases displayed enhanced 2-hydroxylation with higher 2MeO-E1 and 2OH-E1 levels (P< 0.009). Abdominal, pelvic and back pain symptoms were also linked to higher 2OH-3MeO-E1 levels (OR=1.86; 95%CI 1.06-3.27; P=0.032).ConclusionsThe 2-hydroxylation pathway emerges as an unfavorable feature of EM, and is associated with ovarian EM and pain related outcomes

Characterization of 3D PET systems for accurate quantification of myocardial blood flow

Three-dimensional (3D) mode imaging is the current standard for positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) systems. Dynamic imaging for quantification of myocardial blood flow (MBF) with short-lived tracers, such as Rb-82- chloride (Rb-82), requires accuracy to be maintained over a wide range of isotope activities and scanner count-rates. We propose new performance standard measurements to characterize the dynamic range of PET systems for accurate quantitative imaging. Methods: 1100-3000 MBq of Rb-82 or N-13-ammonia was injected into the heart wall insert of an anthropomorphic torso phantom. A decaying isotope scan was performed over 5 half-lives on 9 different 3D PET-CT systems and 1 3D/twodimensional (2D) PET-only system. Dynamic images (28x15s) were reconstructed using iterative algorithms with all corrections enabled. Dynamic range was defined as the maximum activity in the myocardial wall with <10% bias, from which corresponding dead-time, count-rates and/or injected activity limits were established for each scanner. Scatter correction residual bias was estimated as the maximum cavity blood-tomyocardium activity ratio. Image quality was assessed via the coefficient of variation measuring non-uniformity of the left ventricle (LV) myocardium activity distribution. Results: Maximum recommended injected activity/body-weight, peak dead-time correction factor, count-rates and residual scatter bias for accurate cardiac MBF imaging were: 3-14 MBq/kg, 1.5-4.0, 22-64 Mcps singles and 4-14 Mcps prompt coincidence count-rates, and 2-10% on the investigated scanners. Non-uniformity of the myocardial activity distribution varied from 3-16%. Conclusion: Accurate dynamic imaging is possible on the 10 3D-PET systems if the maximum injected MBq/kg values are respected to limit peak dead-time losses during the bolus first-pass transit

Investigating the kinematics of mountain building in Taiwan from the spatiotemporal evolution of the foreland basin and western foothills

The Taiwanese range has resulted from the collision between the Luzon volcanic arc and the Chinese continental margin, which started about 6.5 Myr ago in the north, and has since propagated southward. The building of the range has been recorded in the spatiotemporal evolution of the foreland basin. We analyze this sedimentary record to place some constraints on the kinematics of crustal deformation. The flexure of the foreland under the load of the growing wedge started with a 1.5 Myr long phase of rapid subsidence and sedimentation, which has migrated southward over the last 3.5 Myr at a rate of 31 +10/−5 mm/yr, reflecting the structural evolution of the range and the growth of the topography during the oblique collision. Isopachs from the Toukoshan (~0 to 1.1 Ma) and Cholan (~1.1 to 3.3 Ma) formations, as well as the sedimentation rates retrieved from a well on the Pakuashan anticline, indicate that the foreland basement has been moving toward the center of mass of the orogen by ~45–50 mm/yr during the development of the basin. From there, we estimate the long-term shortening rate across the range to 39.5–44.5 mm/yr. By considering available data on the thrust faults of the foothills of central Taiwan, we show that most (if not all) the shortening across the range is accommodated by the most frontal structures, with little if any internal shortening within the wedge. The range growth appears therefore to have been essentially sustained by underplating rather than by frontal accretion. In addition, only the upper ~7 to 9 km of the underthrusted crust participates to the growth of the orogen. This requires that a significant amount of the Chinese passive margin crust is subducted beneath the Philippine Sea plate

Mountain building in Taiwan: A thermokinematic model

The Taiwan mountain belt is classically viewed as a case example of a critical wedge growing essentially by frontal accretion and therefore submitted to distributed shortening. However, a number of observations call for a significant contribution of underplating to the growth of the orogenic wedge. We propose here a new thermokinematic model of the Taiwan mountain belt reconciling existing kinematic, thermometric and thermochronological constraints. In this model, shortening across the orogen is absorbed by slip on the most frontal faults of the foothills. Crustal thickening and exhumation are sustained by underplating beneath the easternmost portion of the wedge (Tananao Complex, TC), where the uplift rate is estimated to ~6.3 mm a^(−1), and beneath the westernmost internal region of the orogen (Hsueshan Range units, HR), where the uplift rate is estimated to ~4.2 mm a^(−1). Our model suggests that the TC units experienced a synchronous evolution along strike despite the southward propagation of the collision. It also indicates that they have reached a steady state in terms of cooling ages but not in terms of peak metamorphic temperatures. Exhumation of the HR units increases northward but has not yet reached an exhumational steady state. Presently, frontal accretion accounts for less than ~10% of the incoming flux of material into the orogen, although there is indication that it was contributing substantially more (~80%) before 4 Ma. The incoming flux of material accreted beneath the TC significantly increased 1.5 Ma ago. Our results also suggest that the flux of material accreted to the orogen corresponds to the top ~7 km of the upper crust of the underthrust Chinese margin. This indicates that a significant amount (~76%) of the underthrust material has been subducted into the mantle, probably because of the increase in density associated with metamorphism. We also show that the density distribution resulting from metamorphism within the orogenic wedge explains well the topography and the gravity field. By combining available geological data on the thermal and kinematic evolution of the wedge, our study sheds new light onto mountain building processes in Taiwan and allows for reappraising the initial structural architecture of the passive margin

Upregulated IL-32 expression and reduced gut short chain fatty acid caproic acid in people living with HIV with subclinical atherosclerosis

Despite the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), people living with HIV (PLWH) are still at higher risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) that are mediated by chronic inflammation. Identification of novel inflammatory mediators with the inherent potential to be used as CVD biomarkers and also as therapeutic targets is critically needed for better risk stratification and disease management in PLWH. Here, we investigated the expression and potential role of the multi-isoform proinflammatory cytokine IL-32 in subclinical atherosclerosis in PLWH (n=49 with subclinical atherosclerosis and n=30 without) and HIV- controls (n=25 with subclinical atherosclerosis and n=24 without). While expression of all tested IL-32 isoforms (α, β, γ, D, ϵ, and θ) was significantly higher in peripheral blood from PLWH compared to HIV- controls, IL-32D and IL-32θ isoforms were further upregulated in HIV+ individuals with coronary artery atherosclerosis compared to their counterparts without. Upregulation of these two isoforms was associated with increased plasma levels of IL-18 and IL-1β and downregulation of the atheroprotective protein TRAIL, which together composed a unique atherosclerotic inflammatory signature specific for PLWH compared to HIV- controls. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that modulation of these inflammatory variables was independent of age, smoking, and statin treatment. Furthermore, our in vitro functional data linked IL-32 to macrophage activation and production of IL-18 and downregulation of TRAIL, a mechanism previously shown to be associated with impaired cholesterol metabolism and atherosclerosis. Finally, increased expression of IL-32 isoforms in PLWH with subclinical atherosclerosis was associated with altered gut microbiome (increased pathogenic bacteria; Rothia and Eggerthella species) and lower abundance of the gut metabolite short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) caproic acid, measured in fecal samples from the study participants. Importantly, caproic acid diminished the production of IL-32, IL-18, and IL-1β in human PBMCs in response to bacterial LPS stimulation. In conclusion, our studies identified an HIV-specific atherosclerotic inflammatory signature including specific IL-32 isoforms, which is regulated by the SCFA caproic acid and that may lead to new potential therapies to prevent CVD in ART-treated PLWH