Epiphyte metapopulation dynamics are explained by species traits, connectivity, and patch dynamics

The colonization-extinction dynamics of many species are affected by the dynamics of their patches. For increasing our understanding of the metapopulation dynamics of sessile species confined to dynamic patches, we fitted a Bayesian incidence function model extended for dynamic landscapes to snapshot data on five epiphytic lichens among 2083 mapped oaks (dynamic patches). We estimate the age at which trees become suitable patches for different species, which defines their niche breadth (number of suitable trees). We show that the colonization rates were generally low, but increased with increasing connectivity in accordance with metapopulation theory. The rates were related to species traits, and we show, for the first time, that they are higher for species with wide niches and small dispersal propagules than for species with narrow niches or large propagules. We also show frequent long-distance dispersal in epiphytes by quantifying the relative importance of local dispersal and background deposition of dispersal propagules. Local stochastic extinctions from intact trees were negligible in all study species, and thus, the extinction rate is set by the rate of patch destruction (tree fall). These findings mean that epiphyte metapopulations may have slow colonization-extinction dynamics that are explained by connectivity, species traits, and patch dynamics

Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness

The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use and which can potentially have large impacts on the future development of the global forest sector. In this study, we investigate the impacts of material substitution between C, NC and R biomass on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness from 2020 to 2100. The analysis is based on a global spatially-explicit forest sector model (GLOBIOM-forest). Our results indicate that traditional forest industry regions can maintain their competitiveness in a baseline scenario where C and NC biomass remain imperfect substitutes, and the development of the circular economy increases the availability of R biomass. Limited availability of R biomass would increase the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline. On the other hand, a perfect substitution between C and NC biomass would decrease the competitiveness of traditional forest industry regions relative to the baseline, and increase the competitiveness of emerging forest industry regions such as South America, Asia and Africa. We also show that the increased availability of R biomass tends to decrease demand for pulpwood and might lead to an oversupply of pulpwood especially in traditional forest industry regions. This opens new perspectives for pulpwood use and/or forest management in these regions

Alternative measures of trait-niche relationships: A test on dispersal traits in saproxylic beetles

Functional trait approaches are common in ecology, but a lack of clear hypotheses on how traits relate to environmental gradients (i.e., trait-niche relationships) often makes uncovering mechanisms difficult. Furthermore, measures of community functional structure differ in their implications, yet inferences are seldom compared among metrics. Community-weighted mean trait values (CWMs), a common measure, are largely driven by the most common species and thus do not reflect community-wide trait-niche relationships per se. Alternatively, trait-niche relationships can be estimated across a larger group of species using hierarchical joint species distribution models (JSDMs), quantified by a parameter Gamma. We investigated how inferences about trait-niche relationships are affected by the choice of metric. Using deadwood-dependent (saproxylic) beetles in fragmented Finnish forests, we followed a protocol for investigating trait-niche relationships by (1) identifying environmental filters (climate, forest age, and deadwood volume), (2) relating these to an ecological function (dispersal ability), and (3) identifying traits related to this function (wing morphology). We tested 18 hypothesized dispersal relationships using both CWM and Gamma estimates across these environmental gradients. CWMs were more likely than Gamma to show support for trait-niche relationships. Up to 13% of species' realized niches were explained by dispersal traits, but the directions of effects were consistent with fewer than 11%-39% of our 18 trait-niche hypotheses (depending on the metric used). This highlights the difficulty in connecting morphological traits and ecological functions in insects, despite the clear conceptual link between landscape connectivity and flight-related traits. Caution is thus warranted in hypothesis development, particularly where apparent trait-function links are less clear. Inferences differ when CWMs versus Gamma estimates are used, necessitating the choice of a metric that reflects study questions. CWMs help explain the effects of environmental gradients on community trait composition, whereas the effects of traits on species' niches are better estimated using hierarchical JSDMs

Downscaling of Long-Term Global Scenarios to Regions with a Forest Sector Model

Research Highlights: Long-term global scenarios give insights on how social and economic developments and international agreements may impact land use, trade, product markets, and carbon balances. They form a valuable basis for forming national forest policies. Many aspects related to long-term management of forests and consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services can only be addressed at regional and landscape levels. In order to be attended to in the policy process, there is a need for a method that downscales national scenarios to these finer levels. Background and Objectives: Regional framework conditions depend on management activities in the country as a whole. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of a forest sector model (FSM) as a method for downscaling national scenarios results to regional level. The national FSM takes the global scenario data (e.g., harvest level and market prices over time) and solves the national problem. The result for the region of interest is taken as framework conditions for the regional study. Materials and Methods: Two different specifications are tested. One lets product volumes and prices represent endogenous variables in the FSM model. The other takes volumes and prices from the global scenario as exogenous parameters. The first specification attains a maximum net social payoff whereas the second specification means that net present value is maximized under a harvest constraint. Results: The maximum net social payoff specification conforms better to economic factors than the maximum net present value specification but could give national harvest volume trajectories that deviates from what is derived from the global model. This means that regional harvest activity can deviate considerably from the national average, attesting to the benefit of the use of the FSM-based metho

Övervakning av värdefulla skogsbiotoper

Mellan åren 2009-2011 genomfördes de första återinventeringarna av de 19 nyckelbiotoper, 17 naturreservat och fyra äldre produktionsskogar i Dalarna och Gävleborgs län som inventerades tio år tidigare 1998-2002 inom övervakningsprogrammet " Resultaten visade att mängden substrat, antalet förekomster av indikatorarter och enskilda arter varierar mer än vad som kan förväntas av slumpen mellan olika grupper av inventeringsobjekt. Reservaten var generellt mer strukturellt mångfaldiga och artrika än produktionsbestånden, med mer lövträd, död ved av olika slag och fynd av indikatorarter per hektar. Nyckelbiotoper intog en mellanposition och hade lägre volym av död ved per hektar än naturreservaten. Medelfrekvensen indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar var i genomsnitt högre per hektar i naturreservat jämfört med nyckelbiotoper. Lägre medelfrekvenser av vanliga vedsvampar i nyckelbiotoperna kunde till stor del förklaras av en högre frekvens av fnöskticka Ingen förändring kunde statistiskt säkerställas för någon av de studerade skogliga variablerna, artgrupperna elExtensiv övervakning av biotopers innehåll med inriktning mot biologisk mångfald" (Extensivmetoden). De två länen beslöt då att utvärdera metodens effektivitet för att följa upp förändringar för skogliga variabler och indikatorarter efter tio år. I den här rapporten redovisas tillståndet vid återinventeringarna 2009- 2011 samt metodens effektivitet för övervakning och uppföljning av biologisk mångfald i dessa naturreservat, nyckelbiotoper och produktionsbestånd. Den ursprungliga tanken med Extensivmetoden är att inventeringarna ska upprepas vart tionde år för en viss grupp av objekt. Syftet här har varit att svara på (1) vilka förändringar som har skett för enskilda objekt samt en viss grupp av objekt för olika skogliga variabler, indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar, (2) hur små/stora genomsnittliga förändringar som kan avläsas med statistisk signifikans för enskilda objekt och en grupp av objekt och (3) vilka förändringar som har skett under 10-årsperioden i de skyddade områdena respektive nyckelbiotoperna jämfört med de äldre produktionsbestånden och "vanlig" skogsmark baserat på riksskogstaxeringens data? F. fomentarius i reservaten. Ingen förändring kunde statistiskt säkerställas för någon av de studerade skogliga variablerna, artgrupperna eller eller arterna i reservaten eller nyckelbiotoperna efter 10 år. Artrikedomen av indikatorarter förblev också opåverkad över tidsperioden. Detta betyder att både skyddade naturreservat och frivilligt avsatta nyckelbiotoper hade upprätthållit en mångfald av skogliga strukturer och arter under den angivna tidsperioden. Den här rapporten är därmed den första empiriska studien som visar att artrikedomen och frekvensen av skogliga indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar var oförändrad över tid inom både reservat och nyckelbiotoper. Det är dock viktigt att komma ihåg att styrkeanalyserna påvisade att storleken på förändringarna som kunde påvisas med en god statistisk styrka på ca 80 % varierade för den undersökta variabeln och objektkategorin. Ett urval av 17 naturreservat var tillräckligt för att upptäcka relevanta förändringar på 25-35 % (motsvarande rödlistkategorin sårbar) av den ursprungliga genomsnittliga frekvensen av indikatorarter och vanliga vedsvampar, samt individuellt vanliga svampar som fnöskticka och klibbticka, med 80 % statistisk styrka. Den statistiska styrkan för att upptäcka liknande förändringar från ett urval av 19 nyckelbiotoper var endast 20-40 %. Extensivmetoden hade en sämre precision och styrka för att följa upp förändringar för enskilda arter, speciellt för hänglavar i cirkelprovytor och mer ovanliga arter i bältessegment. Vår bedömning är att Extensivmetoden skulle kunna få en betydande roll för miljöövervakning av värdefulla skogsbiotoper i Sverige. Upprepbarhetenär god och det finns i dagsläget väldigt få etablerade miljöövervakningsprogram i skyddsvärda skogar där upprepbarheten har utvärderats på ett liknande långsiktigt sätt. Bristen på långsiktiga övervakningsdata gör det svårt att bedöma Extensivmetodens effektivitet och betydelse i förhållande till annan miljöövervakning. En samordnad och jämförbar nationell och regional långsiktig miljöövervakning av miljökänsliga och viktiga artgrupper som lövträdslevande epifyter och vedlevande svampar saknas för olika skogsbiotoper, men är av stor betydelse för förståelsen av dessa biotopers naturvårdsnytta under framtida skötsel, förvaltning och klimat

Assessing the usefulness of citizen science data for habitat suitability modelling: opportunistic reporting versus sampling based on a systematic protocol

Aim: To evaluate the potential of models based on opportunistic reporting (OR) compared to models based on data from a systematic protocol (SP) for modelling species distributions. We compared model performance for eight forest bird species with contrasting spatial distributions, habitat requirements and rarity. Differences in the reporting of species were also assessed. Finally, we tested potential improvement of models when inferring high‐quality absences from OR based on questionnaires sent to observers. Location: Both datasets cover the same large area (Sweden) and time period (2000–2013). Methods: Species distributions were modelled using logistic regression. Predictive performance of OR models to predict SP data was assessed based on AUC. We quantified the congruence in spatial predictions using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We related these results to species characteristics and reporting behaviour of observers. We also assessed the gain in predictive performance of OR models by adding inferred absences. Finally, we investigated the potential impact of sampling bias in OR. Results: For all species, and despite the sampling biases, results from OR overall agreed well with those of SP, for the nationwide spatial congruence of habitat suitability maps and the selection and directions of species–environment relationships. The OR models also performed well in predicting the SP data. The predictive performance of the OR models increased with species rarity and even outperformed the SP model for the rarest species. No significant impact of observer behaviour was found. Main conclusions: Relatively simple analyses with inferred absences could produce reliable spatial predictions of habitat suitability. This was especially true for rare species. OR data should be seen as a complement to SP, as the weakness of one is the strength of the other, and OR may be especially useful at large spatial scales or where no systematic data collection protocols exist

Sectoral policies cause incoherence in forest management and ecosystem service provisioning

Various national policies guide forest use, but often with competing policy objectives leading to divergent management paradigms. Incoherent policies may negatively impact the sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services (FES), and forest multifunctionality. There is uncertainty among policymakers about the impacts of policies on the real world. We translated the policy documents of Finland into scenarios including the quantitative demands for FES, representing: the national forest strategy (NFS), the biodiversity strategy (BDS), and the bioeconomy strategy (BES). We simulated a Finland-wide systematic sample of forest stands with alternative management regimes and climate change. Finally, we used multi-objective optimization to identify the combination of management regimes matching best with each policy scenario and analysed their long-term effects on FES.The NFS scenario proved to be the most multifunctional, targeting the highest number of FES, while the BES had the lowest FES targets. However, the NFS was strongly oriented towards the value chain of wood and bioenergy and had a dominating economic growth target, which caused strong within-policy conflicts and hindered reaching biodiversity targets. The BDS and BES scenarios were instead more consistent but showed either sustainability gaps in terms of providing timber resources (BDS) or no improvements in forest biodiversity (BES). All policy scenarios resulted in forest management programs dominated by continuous cover forestry, set-aside areas, and intensive management zones, with proportions depending on the policy focus. Our results highlight for the first time the conflicts among national sectoral policies in terms of management requirements and effects on forest multifunctionality. The outcomes provide leverage points for policymakers to increase coherence among future policies and improve implementation of multiple uses of forests

More future synergies and less trade-offs between forest ecosystem services with natural climate solutions instead of bioeconomy solutions

To reach the Paris Agreement, societies need to increase the global terrestrial carbon sink. There are many climate change mitigation solutions (CCMS) for forests, including increasing bioenergy, bioeconomy, and protection. Bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions use climate-smart, intensive management to generate high quantities of bioenergy and bioproducts. Protection of (semi-)natural forests is a major component of "natural climate solution" (NCS) since forests store carbon in standing biomass and soil. Furthermore, protected forests provide more habitat for biodiversity and non-wood ecosystem services (ES). We investigated the impacts of different CCMS and climate scenarios, jointly or in isolation, on future wood ES, non-wood ES, and regulating ES for a major wood provider for the international market. Specifically, we projected future ES given by three CCMS scenarios for Sweden 2020-2100. In the long term, fulfilling the increasing wood demand through bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will decrease ES multifunctionality, but the increased stand age and wood stocks induced by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will partially offset these negative effects. Adopting bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will have a greater negative impact on ES supply than adopting NCS. Bioenergy or bioeconomy solutions, as well as increasing GHG emissions, will reduce synergies and increase trade-offs in ES. NCS, by contrast, increases the supply of multiple ES in synergy, even transforming current ES trade-offs into future synergies. Moreover, NCS can be considered an adaptation measure to offset negative climate change effects on the future supplies of non-wood ES. In boreal countries around the world, forestry strategies that integrate NCS more deeply are crucial to ensure a synergistic supply of multiple ES

Green Infrastructure Design Based on Spatial Conservation Prioritization and Modeling of Biodiversity Features and Ecosystem Services

There is high-level political support for the use of green infrastructure (GI) across Europe, to maintain viable populations and to provide ecosystem services (ES). Even though GI is inherently a spatial concept, the modern tools for spatial planning have not been recognized, such as in the recent European Environment Agency (EEA) report. We outline a toolbox of methods useful for GI design that explicitly accounts for biodiversity and ES. Data on species occurrence, habitats, and environmental variables are increasingly available via open-access internet platforms. Such data can be synthesized by statistical species distri- bution modeling, producing maps of biodiversity features. These, together with maps of ES, can form the basis for GI design. We argue that spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) methods are effective tools for GI design, as the overall SCP goal is cost-effective allocation of conservation efforts. Corridors are currently promoted by the EEA as the means for implementing GI design, but they typically target the needs of only a subset of the regional species pool. SCP methods would help to ensure that GI provides a balanced solution for the requirements of many biodiversity features (e.g., species, habitat types) and ES simultaneously in a cost- effective manner. Such tools are necessary to make GI into an operational concept for combating biodiversity loss and promoting ES.Peer reviewe

Impacts of Forest Management on Forest Bird Occurrence Patterns-A Case Study in Central Europe

The global increase in demand for wood products, calls for a more sustainable management of forests to optimize both the production of wood and the conservation of forest biodiversity. In this paper, we evaluate the status and future trends of forest birds in Central European forests, assuming different forest management scenarios that to a varying degree respond to the demand for wood production. To this end, we use niche models (Boosted Regression Trees and Generalized Linear Models) to model the responses of 15 forest bird species to predictors related to forest stand (e.g., stand volume of specific tree species) and landscape structure (e.g., percentage cover), and to climate (bioclimatic variables). We then define five distinct forest management scenarios, ranging from set-aside to productivity-driven scenarios, project them 100 years into the future, and apply our niche models into these scenarios to assess the birds' responses to different forest management alternatives. Our models show that the species' responses to management vary reflecting differences in their ecological niches, and consequently, no single management practice can benefit all species if applied across the whole landscape. Thus, we conclude that in order to promote the overall forest bird species richness in the study region, it is necessary to manage the forests in a multi-functional way, e.g., by spatially optimizing the management practices in the landscape