Marine Heat Waves Hazard 3D Maps and the Risk for Low Motility Organisms in a Warming Mediterranean Sea

Frequency and severity of heat waves is expected to increase as a consequence of climate change with important impacts on human and ecosystems health. However, while many studies explored the projected occurrence of hot extremes on terrestrial systems, few studies dealt with marine systems, so that both the expected change in marine heat waves occurrence and the effects on marine organisms and ecosystems remain less understood and surprisingly poorly quantified. Here we: (i) assess how much more frequent, severe, and depth-penetrating marine heat waves will be in the Mediterranean area in the next decades by post-processing the output of an ocean general circulation model; and (ii) show that heat waves increase will impact on many species that live in shallow waters and have reduced motility, and related economic activities. This information is made available also as a dataset of temperature threshold exceedance indexes that can be used in combination with biological information to produce risk assessment maps for target species or biomes across the whole Mediterranean Sea. As case studies we compared projected heat waves occurrence with thermotolerance thresholds of low motility organisms. Results suggest a deepening of the survival horizon for red coral (Corallium rubrum, a commercially exploited benthic species already subjected to heat-related mass mortality events) and coralligenous reefs as well as a reduction of suitable farming sites for the mussel Mythilus galloprovincialis. In recent years Mediterranean circalittoral ecosystems (coralligenous) have been severely and repeatedly impacted by marine heat waves. Our results support that equally deleterious events are expected in the near future also for other ecologically important habitats (e.g., seagrass meadows) and aquaculture activities (bivalvae), and point at the need for mitigation strategies

The Northern Adriatic Forecasting System for Circulation and Biogeochemistry: Implementation and Preliminary Results

This paper described the implementation of a forecasting system of the coupled physical and biogeochemical state of the northern Adriatic Sea and discussed the preliminary results. The forecasting system is composed of two components: the NEMO general circulation model and the BFM biogeochemical model. The BFM component includes an explicit benthic pelagic coupling providing fluxes at the sediment-water interface and the dynamic of the major benthic state variables. The system is forced by atmospheric forcing from a limited-area model and by available land-based (river runoff and nutrient load) data. The preliminary results were validated against available remote and in situ observations. The validation effort indicated a good performance of the system in defining the basin scale characteristics, while locally the forecasting model performance seemed mostly impaired by the uncertainties in the definition of the land-based forcing

Performance and results of the high-resolution biogeochemical model PELAGOS025 v1.0 within NEMO v3.4

Abstract. The present work aims at evaluating the scalability performance of a high-resolution global ocean biogeochemistry model (PELAGOS025) on massive parallel architectures and the benefits in terms of the time-to-solution reduction. PELAGOS025 is an on-line coupling between the Nucleus for the European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) physical ocean model and the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) biogeochemical model. Both the models use a parallel domain decomposition along the horizontal dimension. The parallelisation is based on the message passing paradigm. The performance analysis has been done on two parallel architectures, an IBM BlueGene/Q at ALCF (Argonne Leadership Computing Facilities) and an IBM iDataPlex with Sandy Bridge processors at the CMCC (Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate Change). The outcome of the analysis demonstrated that the lack of scalability is due to several factors such as the I/O operations, the memory contention, the load unbalancing due to the memory structure of the BFM component and, for the BlueGene/Q, the absence of a hybrid parallelisation approach

Extreme events representation in CMCC-CM2 standard and high-resolution general circulation models

The recent advancements in climate modeling partially build on the improvement of horizontal resolution in different components of the simulating system. A higher resolution is expected to provide a better representation of the climate variability, and in this work we are particularly interested in the potential improvements in representing extreme events of high temperature and precipitation. The two versions of the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC-CM2) model used here adopt the highest horizontal resolutions available within the last family of the global coupled climate models developed at CMCC to participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, Phase 6 (CMIP6) effort. The main aim of this study is to document the ability of the CMCC-CM2 models to represent the spatial distribution of extreme events of temperature and precipitation, under the historical period, comparing model results to observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5), multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) and Climate Hazards Group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) observations. For a more detailed evaluation we use both 6-hourly and daily time series, to compute indices representative of intense and extreme conditions. In terms of mean climate, the two models are able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature and precipitation. The high resolution version ( ∘ horizontal resolution) of the atmospheric model provides better results than the standard resolution one (1°), not only in terms of means but also in terms of intense and extreme events of temperature defined at daily and 6-hourly frequencies. This is also the case of average and intense precipitation. On the other hand the extreme precipitation is not improved by the adoption of a higher horizontal resolution

Global mean climate and main patterns of variability in the CMCC-CM2 coupled model

Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC‐CM2) represents the new family of the global coupled climate models developed and used at CMCC. It is based on the atmospheric, land and sea ice components from the Community Earth System Model coupled with the global ocean model Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean. This study documents the model components, the coupling strategy, particularly for the oceanic, atmospheric, and sea ice components, and the overall model ability in reproducing the observed mean climate and main patterns of interannual variability. As a first step toward a more comprehensive, process‐oriented, validation of the model, this work analyzes a 200‐year simulation performed under constant forcing corresponding to present‐day climate conditions. In terms of mean climate, the model is able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature, precipitation, and winds. Specifically, we report improvements in the representation of the sea surface temperature with respect to the previous version of the model. In terms of mean atmospheric circulation features, we notice a realistic simulation of upper tropospheric winds and midtroposphere geopotential eddies. The oceanic heat transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation satisfactorily compare with present‐day observations and estimates from global ocean reanalyses. The sea ice patterns and associated seasonal variations are realistically reproduced in both hemispheres, with a better skill in winter. Main weaknesses of the simulated climate are related with the precipitation patterns, specifically in the tropical regions with large dry biases over the Amazon basin. Similarly, the seasonal precipitation associated with the monsoons, mostly over Asia, is weaker than observed. The main patterns of interannual variability in terms of dominant empirical orthogonal functions are faithfully reproduced, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the tropics the main teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and with the Indian Ocean Dipole are also in good agreement with observations.Published4A. Oceanografia e climaJCR Journa

Cumulative Impact Index for the Adriatic Sea: Accounting for interactions among climate and anthropogenic pressures

Assessing and managing cumulative impacts produced by interactive anthropogenic and natural drivers is a major challenge to achieve the sustainable use of marine spaces in line with the objectives of relevant EU acquis. However, the complexity of the marine environment and the uncertainty linked to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, represent major obstacles for understanding the multiplicity of impacts on the marine ecosystems and to identify appropriate management strategies to be implemented. Going beyond the traditional additive approach for cumulative impact appraisal, the Cumulative Impact Index (CI-Index) proposed in this paper applies advanced Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis techniques to spatially model relationships between interactive climate and anthropogenic pressures, the environmental exposure and vulnerability patterns and the potential cumulative impacts for the marine ecosystems at risk. The assessment was performed based on spatial data characterizing location and vulnerability of 5 relevant marine targets (e.g. seagrasses and coral beds), and the distribution of 17 human activities (e.g. trawling, maritime traffic) during a reference scenario 2000-2015. Moreover, projections for selected physical and biogeochemical parameters (temperature and chlorophyll 'a') for the 2035-2050 timeframe under RCP8.5 scenario, were integrated in the assessment to evaluate index variations due to changing climate conditions. The application of the CI-Index in the Adriatic Sea, showed higher cumulative impacts in the Northern part of the basin and along the Italian continental shelf, where the high concentration of human activities, the seawater temperature conditions and the presence of vulnerable benthic habitats, contribute to increase the overall impact estimate. Moreover, the CI-Index allowed understanding which are the phenomena contributing to synergic pressures creating potential pathways of environmental disturbance for marine ecosystems. Finally, the application in the Adriatic case showed how the output of the CI-Index can provide support to evaluate multi-risk scenarios and to drive sustainable maritime spatial planning and management

Projected climate oligotrophication of the Adriatic marine ecosystems

The Adriatic Sea hosts diverse marine ecosystems, characterized by rich biodiversity and unique ecological dynamics. Its intricate coastal habitats and open waters support a range of species and contribute to the region's ecological and economic significance. Unraveling the consequences of the ongoing climate changes on this delicate environment is essential to ensure the future safeguard of this basin. To tackle this problem, we developed a biogeochemical model for the entire basin, with a horizontal resolution of about 2 km and 120 vertical levels, forced by the projections of atmosphere, hydrology and ocean circulation between 1992 and 2050, under emission scenario RCP8.5. The changes projected between 2031–2050 and 1992–2011 were evaluated on ecoregions characterized by different trophic conditions, identified using a k-medoid classification technique. The results point toward a generalized oligotrophication of the basin, especially intense in the northern estuarine areas, driven by a substantial decrease in river discharge projected for the rivers of the Po Plain. This scenario of unproductive and declining resources, together with the ongoing warming, salinization, and acidification of marine waters, cast doubt on the long-term resilience of the Northern Adriatic food web structure, which has evolved to thrive in high trophic conditions. The outcome of this study provides the stakeholders with a tool to understand how potential long-term decreases in the regimes of the Northern Adriatic Rivers could affect the marine ecosystem and its goods and services in the future

Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100

Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html