Nonparametric estimation in economics: Bayesian and frequentist approaches

© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. We review Bayesian and classical approaches to nonparametric density and regression estimation and illustrate how these techniques can be used in economic applications. On the Bayesian side, density estimation is illustrated via finite Gaussian mixtures and a Dirichlet Process Mixture Model, while nonparametric regression is handled using priors that impose smoothness. From the frequentist perspective, kernel-based nonparametric regression techniques are presented for both density and regression problems. Both approaches are illustrated using a wage dataset from the Current Population Survey. WIREs Comput Stat 2017, 9:e1406. doi: 10.1002/wics.1406. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website

Characterising the shape, size, and orientation of cloud‐feeding coherent boundary‐layer structures

Two techniques are presented for characterisation of cloud-feeding coherent boundary-layer structures through analysis of large-eddy simulations of shallow cumulus clouds, contrasting conditions with and without ambient shear. The first technique is a generalisation of the two-point correlation function, where the correlation length-scale as well as the orientation can be extracted. The second technique identifies individual coherent structures and decomposes their vertical transport by the shape, size, and orientation of these objects. The bulk-correlation technique is shown to capture the elongation and orientation of coherence by ambient wind, but is unable to characterise individual coherent structures. Using the object-based approach, it is found that the individual structures dominating the vertical flux are plume-like in character (extending from the surface into cloud) rather than thermal-like, show small width/thickness asymmetry, and rise near-vertically in the absence of ambient wind. The planar stretching and tilting of boundary-layer structures caused by the introduction of ambient shear is also quantified, demonstrating the general applicability of the techniques for future study of other boundary-layer patterns

On the bistable zone of milling processes

A modal-based model of milling machine tools subjected to time-periodic nonlinear cutting forces is introduced. The model describes the phenomenon of bistability for certain cutting parameters. In engineering, these parameter domains are referred to as unsafe zones, where steady-state milling may switch to chatter for certain perturbations. In mathematical terms, these are the parameter domains where the periodic solution of the corresponding nonlinear, time-periodic delay differential equation is linearly stable, but its domain of attraction is limited due to the existence of an unstable quasi-periodic solution emerging from a secondary Hopf bifurcation. A semi-numerical method is presented to identify the borders of these bistable zones by tracking the motion of the milling tool edges as they might leave the surface of the workpiece during the cutting operation. This requires the tracking of unstable quasi-periodic solutions and the checking of their grazing to a time-periodic switching surface in the infinite-dimensional phase space. As the parameters of the linear structural behaviour of the tool/machine tool system can be obtained by means of standard modal testing, the developed numerical algorithm provides efficient support for the design of milling processes with quick estimates of those parameter domains where chatter can still appear in spite of setting the parameters into linearly stable domains

Incident venous thromboembolic events in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER)

<p>Background: Venous thromboembolic events (VTE), including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, are common in older age. It has been suggested that statins might reduce the risk of VTE however positive results from studies of middle aged subjects may not be generalisable to elderly people. We aimed to determine the effect of pravastatin on incident VTE in older people; we also studied the impact of clinical and plasma risk variables.</p> <p>Methods: This study was an analysis of incident VTE using data from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pravastatin in men and women aged 70-82. Mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Risk for VTE was examined in non-warfarin treated pravastatin (n = 2834) and placebo (n = 2865) patients using a Cox's proportional hazard model, and the impact of other risk factors assessed in a multivariate forward stepwise regression analysis. Baseline clinical characteristics, blood biochemistry and hematology variables, plasma levels of lipids and lipoproteins, and plasma markers of inflammation and adiposity were compared. Plasma markers of thrombosis and hemostasis were assessed in a nested case (n = 48) control (n = 93) study where the cohort was those participants, not on warfarin, for whom data were available.</p> <p>Results: There were 28 definite cases (1.0%) of incident VTE in the pravastatin group recipients and 20 cases (0.70%) in placebo recipients. Pravastatin did not reduce VTE in PROSPER compared to placebo [unadjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.42 (0.80, 2.52) p = 0.23]. Higher body mass index (BMI) [1.09 (1.02, 1.15) p = 0.0075], country [Scotland vs Netherlands 4.26 (1.00, 18.21) p = 0.050 and Ireland vs Netherlands 6.16 (1.46, 26.00) p = 0.013], lower systolic blood pressure [1.35 (1.03, 1.75) p = 0.027] and lower baseline Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score [1.19 (1.01, 1.41) p = 0.034] were associated with an increased risk of VTE, however only BMI, country and systolic blood pressure remained significant on multivariate analysis. In a nested case control study of definite VTE, plasma Factor VIII levels were associated with VTE [1.52 (1.01, 2.28), p = 0.044]. However no other measure of thrombosis and haemostasis was associated with increased risk of VTE.</p> <p>Conclusions: Pravastatin does not prevent VTE in elderly people at risk of vascular disease. Blood markers of haemostasis and inflammation are not strongly predictive of VTE in older age however BMI, country and lower systolic blood pressure are independently associated with VTE risk.</p&gt

High platelet reactivity in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: Randomised controlled trial comparing prasugrel and clopidogrel

Background: Prasugrel is more effective than clopidogrel in reducing platelet aggregation in acute coronary syndromes. Data available on prasugrel reloading in clopidogrel treated patients with high residual platelet reactivity (HRPR) i.e. poor responders, is limited. Objectives: To determine the effects of prasugrel loading on platelet function in patients on clopidogrel and high platelet reactivity undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Patients: Patients with ACS on clopidogrel who were scheduled for PCI found to have a platelet reactivity ≥40 AUC with the Multiplate Analyzer, i.e. “poor responders” were randomised to prasugrel (60 mg loading and 10 mg maintenance dose) or clopidogrel (600 mg reloading and 150 mg maintenance dose). The primary outcome measure was proportion of patients with platelet reactivity <40 AUC 4 hours after loading with study medication, and also at one hour (secondary outcome). 44 patients were enrolled and the study was terminated early as clopidogrel use decreased sharply due to introduction of newer P2Y12 inhibitors. Results: At 4 hours after study medication 100% of patients treated with prasugrel compared to 91% of those treated with clopidogrel had platelet reactivity <40 AUC (p = 0.49), while at 1 hour the proportions were 95% and 64% respectively (p = 0.02). Mean platelet reactivity at 4 and 1 hours after study medication in prasugrel and clopidogrel groups respectively were 12 versus 22 (p = 0.005) and 19 versus 34 (p = 0.01) respectively. Conclusions: Routine platelet function testing identifies patients with high residual platelet reactivity (“poor responders”) on clopidogrel. A strategy of prasugrel rather than clopidogrel reloading results in earlier and more sustained suppression of platelet reactivity. Future trials need to identify if this translates into clinical benefit

Sequencing by Hybridization of Long Targets

Sequencing by Hybridization (SBH) reconstructs an n-long target DNA sequence from its biochemically determined l-long subsequences. In the standard approach, the length of a uniformly random sequence that can be unambiguously reconstructed is limited to due to repetitive subsequences causing reconstruction degeneracies. We present a modified sequencing method that overcomes this limitation without the need for different types of biochemical assays and is robust to error

An Integrated-Photonics Optical-Frequency Synthesizer

Integrated-photonics microchips now enable a range of advanced functionalities for high-coherence applications such as data transmission, highly optimized physical sensors, and harnessing quantum states, but with cost, efficiency, and portability much beyond tabletop experiments. Through high-volume semiconductor processing built around advanced materials there exists an opportunity for integrated devices to impact applications cutting across disciplines of basic science and technology. Here we show how to synthesize the absolute frequency of a lightwave signal, using integrated photonics to implement lasers, system interconnects, and nonlinear frequency comb generation. The laser frequency output of our synthesizer is programmed by a microwave clock across 4 THz near 1550 nm with 1 Hz resolution and traceability to the SI second. This is accomplished with a heterogeneously integrated III/V-Si tunable laser, which is guided by dual dissipative-Kerr-soliton frequency combs fabricated on silicon chips. Through out-of-loop measurements of the phase-coherent, microwave-to-optical link, we verify that the fractional-frequency instability of the integrated photonics synthesizer matches the $7.0*10^{-13}$ reference-clock instability for a 1 second acquisition, and constrain any synthesis error to $7.7*10^{-15}$ while stepping the synthesizer across the telecommunication C band. Any application of an optical frequency source would be enabled by the precision optical synthesis presented here. Building on the ubiquitous capability in the microwave domain, our results demonstrate a first path to synthesis with integrated photonics, leveraging low-cost, low-power, and compact features that will be critical for its widespread use.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Parity-Violating Electron Scattering from 4He and the Strange Electric Form Factor of the Nucleon

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from ^4He at an average scattering angle = 5.7 degrees and a four-momentum transfer Q^2 = 0.091 GeV^2. From these data, for the first time, the strange electric form factor of the nucleon G^s_E can be isolated. The measured asymmetry of A_PV = (6.72 +/- 0.84 (stat) +/- 0.21 (syst) parts per million yields a value of G^s_E = -0.038 +/- 0.042 (stat) +/- 0.010 (syst), consistent with zero