Methods for confidence interval estimation of a ratio parameter with application to location quotients

BACKGROUND: The location quotient (LQ) ratio, a measure designed to quantify and benchmark the degree of relative concentration of an activity in the analysis of area localization, has received considerable attention in the geographic and economics literature. This index can also naturally be applied in the context of population health to quantify and compare health outcomes across spatial domains. However, one commonly observed limitation of LQ is its widespread use as only a point estimate without an accompanying confidence interval. METHODS: In this paper we present statistical methods that can be used to construct confidence intervals for location quotients. The delta and Fieller's methods are generic approaches for a ratio parameter and the generalized linear modelling framework is a useful re-parameterization particularly helpful for generating profile-likelihood based confidence intervals for the location quotient. A simulation experiment is carried out to assess the performance of each of the analytic approaches and a health utilization data set is used for illustration. RESULTS: Both the simulation results as well as the findings from the empirical data show that the different analytical methods produce very similar confidence limits for location quotients. When incidence of outcome is not rare and sample sizes are large, the confidence limits are almost indistinguishable. The confidence limits from the generalized linear model approach might be preferable in small sample situations. CONCLUSION: LQ is a useful measure which allows quantification and comparison of health and other outcomes across defined geographical regions. It is a very simple index to compute and has a straightforward interpretation. Reporting this estimate with appropriate confidence limits using methods presented in this paper will make the measure particularly attractive for policy and decision makers

Socially sensitive lactation: Exploring the social context of breastfeeding

Many women report difficulties with breastfeeding and do not maintain the practice for as long as intended. Although psychologists and other researchers have explored some of the difficulties they experience, fuller exploration of the relational contexts in which breastfeeding takes place is warranted to enable more in-depth analysis of the challenges these pose for breastfeeding women. The present paper is based on qualitative data collected from 22 first-time breastfeeding mothers through two phases of interviews and audio-diaries which explored how the participants experienced their relationships with significant others and the wider social context of breastfeeding in the first five weeks postpartum. Using a thematic analysis informed by symbolic interactionism, we develop the overarching theme of ‘Practising socially sensitive lactation’ which captures how participants felt the need to manage tensions between breastfeeding and their perceptions of the needs, expectations and comfort of others. We argue that breastfeeding remains a problematic social act, despite its agreed importance for child health. Whilst acknowledging the limitations of our sample and analytic approach, we suggest ways in which perinatal and public health interventions can take more effective account of the social challenges of breastfeeding in order to facilitate the health and psychological well-being of mothers and their infants

Scaling up the effects of inbreeding depression from individuals to metapopulations

Abstract Inbreeding is common in nature, and many laboratory studies have documented that inbreeding depression can reduce the fitness of individuals. Demonstrating the consequences of inbreeding depression on the growth and persistence of populations is more challenging because populations are often regulated by density- or frequency-dependent selection and influenced by demographic and environmental stochasticity. A few empirical studies have shown that inbreeding depression can increase extinction risk of local populations. The importance of inbreeding depression at the metapopulation level has been conjectured based on population-level studies but has not been evaluated. We quantified the impact of inbreeding depression affecting the fitness of individuals on metapopulation persistence in heterogeneous habitat networks of different sizes and habitat configuration in a context of natural butterfly metapopulations. We developed a spatial individual-based simulation model of metapopulations with explicit genetics. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit the model to extensive demographic, genetic, and life-history data available for the well-studied Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulations in the Åland islands in SW Finland. We compared 18 semi-independent habitat networks differing in size and fragmentation. The results show that inbreeding is more frequent in small habitat networks, and consequently, inbreeding depression elevates extinction risks in small metapopulations. Metapopulation persistence and neutral genetic diversity maintained in the metapopulations increase with the total habitat amount in and mean patch size of habitat networks. Dispersal and mating behavior interact with landscape structure to determine how likely it is to encounter kin while looking for mates. Inbreeding depression can decrease the viability of small metapopulations even when they are strongly influenced by stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics and density-dependent selection. The findings from this study support that genetic factors, in addition to demographic factors, can contribute to extinctions of small local populations and also of metapopulations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Software for continuous game experiments

ConG is software for conducting economic experiments in continuous and discrete time. It allows experimenters with limited programming experience to create a variety of strategic environments featuring rich visual feedback in continuous time and over continuous action spaces, as well as in discrete time or over discrete action spaces. Simple, easily edited input files give the experimenter considerable flexibility in specifying the strategic environment and visual feedback. Source code is modular and allows researchers with programming skills to create novel strategic environments and displays

Some food toxic for pets

According to world statistics, dogs and cats are the species that owners most frequently seek assistance with potential poisonings, accounting 95–98% of all reported animal cases. Exposures occur more commonly in the summer and in December that is associated with the holiday season. The majority (>90%) of animal poisonings are accidental and acute in nature and occur near or at the animal owner's home. Feeding human foodstuff to pets may also prove dangerous for their health

Pathogen Populations Evolve to Greater Race Complexity in Agricultural Systems – Evidence from Analysis of Rhynchosporium secalis Virulence Data

Fitness cost associated with pathogens carrying unnecessary virulence alleles is the fundamental assumption for preventing the emergence of complex races in plant pathogen populations but this hypothesis has rarely been tested empirically on a temporal and spatial scale which is sufficient to distinguish evolutionary signals from experimental error. We analyzed virulence characteristics of ∼1000 isolates of the barley pathogen Rhynchosporium secalis collected from different parts of the United Kingdom between 1984 and 2005. We found a gradual increase in race complexity over time with a significant correlation between sampling date and race complexity of the pathogen (r20 = 0.71, p = 0.0002) and an average loss of 0.1 avirulence alleles (corresponding to an average gain of 0.1 virulence alleles) each year. We also found a positive and significant correlation between barley cultivar diversity and R. secalis virulence variation. The conditions assumed to favour complex races were not present in the United Kingdom and we hypothesize that the increase in race complexity is attributable to the combination of natural selection and genetic drift. Host resistance selects for corresponding virulence alleles to fixation or dominant frequency. Because of the weak fitness penalty of carrying the unnecessary virulence alleles, genetic drift associated with other evolutionary forces such as hitch-hiking maintains the frequency of the dominant virulence alleles even after the corresponding resistance factors cease to be used

Glacial Refugia in Pathogens: European Genetic Structure of Anther Smut Pathogens on Silene latifolia and Silene dioica

Climate warming is predicted to increase the frequency of invasions by pathogens and to cause the large-scale redistribution of native host species, with dramatic consequences on the health of domesticated and wild populations of plants and animals. The study of historic range shifts in response to climate change, such as during interglacial cycles, can help in the prediction of the routes and dynamics of infectious diseases during the impending ecosystem changes. Here we studied the population structure in Europe of two Microbotryum species causing anther smut disease on the plants Silene latifolia and Silene dioica. Clustering analyses revealed the existence of genetically distinct groups for the pathogen on S. latifolia, providing a clear-cut example of European phylogeography reflecting recolonization from southern refugia after glaciation. The pathogen genetic structure was congruent with the genetic structure of its host species S. latifolia, suggesting dependence of the migration pathway of the anther smut fungus on its host. The fungus, however, appeared to have persisted in more numerous and smaller refugia than its host and to have experienced fewer events of large-scale dispersal. The anther smut pathogen on S. dioica also showed a strong phylogeographic structure that might be related to more northern glacial refugia. Differences in host ecology probably played a role in these differences in the pathogen population structure. Very high selfing rates were inferred in both fungal species, explaining the low levels of admixture between the genetic clusters. The systems studied here indicate that migration patterns caused by climate change can be expected to include pathogen invasions that follow the redistribution of their host species at continental scales, but also that the recolonization by pathogens is not simply a mirror of their hosts, even for obligate biotrophs, and that the ecology of hosts and pathogen mating systems likely affects recolonization patterns

Cardiorespiratory hysteresis during incremental high altitude ascent-descent quantifies the magnitude of ventilatory acclimatization

Maintenance of arterial blood gases is achieved through sophisticated regulation of ventilation, mediated by central and peripheral chemoreflexes. Respiratory chemoreflexes are important during exposure to high altitude due to the competing influence of hypoxia and hypoxic hyperventilation‐mediated hypocapnia on steady‐state ventilatory drive. Inter‐individual variability exists in ventilatory acclimatization to high altitude, potentially affecting the development of acute mountain sickness (AMS). We aimed to quantify ventilatory acclimatization to high altitude by comparing differential ascent and descent values (i.e. hysteresis) in steady‐state cardiorespiratory variables. We hypothesized that (a) the hysteresis area formed by cardiorespiratory variables during ascent and descent would quantify the magnitude of ventilatory acclimatization, and (b) larger hysteresis areas would be associated with lower AMS symptom scores during ascent. In 25 healthy, Diamox‐free trekkers ascending to and descending from 5160 m, cardiorespiratory hysteresis was measured in the pressure of end‐tidal (PET)CO2, peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2), minute ventilation (V̇E), chemoreceptor stimulus index (SI; PETCO2/SpO2) and the calculated steady‐state chemoreflex drive (SS‐CD; V̇E/SI) using portable devices (capnograph, peripheral pulse oximeter and respirometer, respectively). AMS symptoms were assessed daily using the Lake Louise Questionnaire. We found that (a) ascent‐descent hysteresis was present in all cardiorespiratory variables, (b) SS‐CD is a valid metric for tracking ventilatory acclimatization to high altitude and (c) highest AMS scores during ascent were significantly, moderately and inversely‐correlated to SS‐CD hysteresis magnitude (rs = ‐0.408, P = 0.043). We propose that ascent‐descent hysteresis is a novel and feasible way to quantify ventilatory acclimatization in trekkers during high altitude exposure

Mutualism and Adaptive Divergence: Co-Invasion of a Heterogeneous Grassland by an Exotic Legume-Rhizobium Symbiosis

Species interactions play a critical role in biological invasions. For example, exotic plant and microbe mutualists can facilitate each other's spread as they co-invade novel ranges. Environmental context may influence the effect of mutualisms on invasions in heterogeneous environments, however these effects are poorly understood. We examined the mutualism between the legume, Medicago polymorpha, and the rhizobium, Ensifer medicae, which have both invaded California grasslands. Many of these invaded grasslands are composed of a patchwork of harsh serpentine and relatively benign non-serpentine soils. We grew legume genotypes collected from serpentine or non-serpentine soil in both types of soil in combination with rhizobium genotypes from serpentine or non-serpentine soils and in the absence of rhizobia. Legumes invested more strongly in the mutualism in the home soil type and trends in fitness suggested that this ecotypic divergence was adaptive. Serpentine legumes had greater allocation to symbiotic root nodules in serpentine soil than did non-serpentine legumes and non-serpentine legumes had greater allocation to nodules in non-serpentine soil than did serpentine legumes. Therefore, this invasive legume has undergone the rapid evolution of divergence for soil-specific investment in the mutualism. Contrary to theoretical expectations, the mutualism was less beneficial for legumes grown on the stressful serpentine soil than on the non-serpentine soil, possibly due to the inhibitory effects of serpentine on the benefits derived from the interaction. The soil-specific ability to allocate to a robust microbial mutualism may be a critical, and previously overlooked, adaptation for plants adapting to heterogeneous environments during invasion