Observational study to estimate the changes in the effectiveness of bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination with time since vaccination for preventing tuberculosis in the UK

Background Until recently, evidence that protection from the bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination lasted beyond 10 years was limited. In the past few years, studies in Brazil and the USA (in Native Americans) have suggested that protection from BCG vaccination against tuberculosis (TB) in childhood can last for several decades. The UK’s universal school-age BCG vaccination programme was stopped in 2005 and the programme of selective vaccination of high-risk (usually ethnic minority) infants was enhanced. Objectives To assess the duration of protection of infant and school-age BCG vaccination against TB in the UK. Methods Two case–control studies of the duration of protection of BCG vaccination were conducted, the first on minority ethnic groups who were eligible for infant BCG vaccination 0–19 years earlier and the second on white subjects eligible for school-age BCG vaccination 10–29 years earlier. TB cases were selected from notifications to the UK national Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance system from 2003 to 2012. Population-based control subjects, frequency matched for age, were recruited. BCG vaccination status was established from BCG records, scar reading and BCG history. Information on potential confounders was collected using computer-assisted interviews. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as a function of time since vaccination, using a case–cohort analysis based on Cox regression. Results In the infant BCG study, vaccination status was determined using vaccination records as recall was poor and concordance between records and scar reading was limited. A protective effect was seen up to 10 years following infant vaccination [< 5 years since vaccination: vaccine effectiveness (VE) 66%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17% to 86%; 5–10 years since vaccination: VE 75%, 95% CI 43% to 89%], but there was weak evidence of an effect 10–15 years after vaccination (VE 36%, 95% CI negative to 77%; p = 0.396). The analyses of the protective effect of infant BCG vaccination were adjusted for confounders, including birth cohort and ethnicity. For school-aged BCG vaccination, VE was 51% (95% CI 21% to 69%) 10–15 years after vaccination and 57% (95% CI 33% to 72%) 15–20 years after vaccination, beyond which time protection appeared to wane. Ascertainment of vaccination status was based on self-reported history and scar reading. Limitations The difficulty in examining vaccination sites in older women in the high-risk minority ethnic study population and the sparsity of vaccine record data in the later time periods precluded robust assessment of protection from infant BCG vaccination > 10 years after vaccination. Conclusions Infant BCG vaccination in a population at high risk for TB was shown to provide protection for at least 10 years, whereas in the white population school-age vaccination was shown to provide protection for at least 20 years. This evidence may inform TB vaccination programmes (e.g. the timing of administration of improved TB vaccines, if they become available) and cost-effectiveness studies. Methods to deal with missing record data in the infant study could be explored, including the use of scar reading

The future prospects of Lithuanian family physicians: a 10-year forecasting study

BACKGROUND: When health care reform was started in 1991, the physician workforce in Lithuania was dominated by specialists, and the specialty of family physician (FP) did not exist at all. During fifteen years of Lithuania's independence this specialty evolved rapidly and over 1,900 FPs were trained or retrained. Since 2003, the Lithuanian health care sector has undergone restructuring to optimize the network of health care institutions as well as the delivery of services; specific attention has been paid to the development of services provided by FPs, with more health care services shifted from the hospital level to the primary health care level. In this paper we analyze if an adequate workforce of FPs will be available in the future to take over new emerging tasks. METHODS: A computer spreadsheet simulation model was used to project the supply of FPs in 2006–2015. The supply was projected according to three scenarios, which took into account different rates of retirement, migration and drop out from training. In addition different population projections and enrolment numbers in residency programs were also considered. Three requirement scenarios were made using different approaches. In the first scenario we used the requirement estimated by a panel of experts using the Delphi technique. The second scenario was based on the number of visits to FPs in 2003 and took into account the goal to increase the number of visits. The third scenario was based on the determination that one FP should serve no more than 2,000 inhabitants. The three scenarios for the projection of supply were compared with the three requirement scenarios. RESULTS: The supply of family physicians will be higher in 2015 compared to 2005 according to all projection scenarios. The largest differences in the supply scenarios were caused by different migration rates, enrolment numbers to training programs and the retirement age. The second supply scenario, which took into account 1.1% annual migration rate, stable enrolment to residency programs and later retirement, appears to be the most probable. The first requirement scenario, which was based on the opinion of well-informed key experts in the field, appears to be the best reflection of FP requirements; however none of the supply scenarios considered would satisfy these requirements. CONCLUSION: Despite the rapid expansion of the FP workforce during the last fifteen years, ten-year forecasts of supply and requirement indicate that the number of FPs in 2015 will not be sufficient. The annual enrolment in residency training programs should be increased by at least 20% for the next three years. Accurate year-by-year monitoring of the workforce is crucial in order to prevent future shortages and to maintain the desired family physician workforce

Reforming sanitary-epidemiological service in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union: an exploratory study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Public health services in the Soviet Union and its satellite states in Central and Eastern Europe were delivered through centrally planned and managed networks of sanitary-epidemiological (san-epid) facilities. Many countries sought to reform this service following the political transition in the 1990s. In this paper we describe the major themes within these reforms.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A review of literature was conducted. A conceptual framework was developed to guide the review, which focused on the two traditional core public health functions of the san-epid system: communicable disease surveillance, prevention and control and environmental health. The review included twenty-two former communist countries in the former Soviet Union (fSU) and in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The countries studied fall into two broad groups. Reforms were more extensive in the CEE countries than in the fSU. The CEE countries have moved away from the former centrally managed san-epid system, adopting a variety of models of decentralization. The reformed systems remain mainly funded centrally level, but in some countries there are contributions by local government. In almost all countries, epidemiological surveillance and environmental monitoring remained together under a single organizational umbrella but in a few responsibilities for environmental health have been divided among different ministries.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Progress in reform of public health services has varied considerably. There is considerable scope to learn from the differing experiences but also a need for rigorous evaluation of how public health functions are provided.</p

Drinking in the Commonwealth of Independent States--evidence from eight countries.

AIMS: To describe the frequency of alcohol consumption and beverage preferences in eight countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Populations of Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine. PARTICIPANTS: Representative samples of the adult population of each country (overall sample size 18,428; response rates: 71-88%). MEASUREMENTS: A standardised questionnaire was administered by trained interviewers to examine alcohol consumption frequency and usual intakes of beer, wine and strong spirits. FINDINGS: Between 11 and 34% of males and 26-71% of females reported never drinking alcohol. Abstention was lowest in the Russian Federation and Belarus, two traditional spirits-drinking countries. It was particularly high in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, two countries with a relatively low frequency of alcohol consumption but large amounts consumed per occasion (particularly Georgia). On the contrary, Moldovan respondents drank frequently, but consumed smaller amounts per occasion. As expected, spirits were consumed in largest amounts in traditional spirits-drinking countries, as well as Armenia and wine in traditional wine-drinking countries. Beer consumption was relatively high in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (males), particularly in young respondents. CONCLUSIONS: Although cross-country comparisons of alcohol intake should be interpreted cautiously, this study suggested that drinking patterns in the countries examined are not entirely typical of usual dry/wet drinking cultures, and confirms that the CIS is very diverse in terms of drinking patterns and beverage preferences. The study provides an important baseline for future comparisons as markets open to new products, as has been the case elsewhere in Europe