An economic analysis of a pneumococcal vaccine programme in people aged over 64 years in a developed country setting.

BACKGROUND: Polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccination for older adults is being introduced in developed country settings. Evidence of protection by this vaccine against pneumococcal pneumonia, or confirmation that illness and death from bacteraemia are prevented, is currently limited. Decisions are often made based on partial information. We examined the policy implications by exploring the potential economic benefit to society and the health sector of pneumococcal vaccination in older adults. METHODS: A model to estimate the potential cost savings and cost-effectiveness of a polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine programme was based on costs collected from patients, the literature, and routine health-services data. The effect of a pneumococcal vaccine (compared with no vaccination) was examined in a hypothetical cohort aged over 64 years. The duration of protection was assumed to be 10 years, with or without a booster at 5 years. RESULTS: If it were effective against morbidity from pneumococcal pneumonia, the main burden from pneumococcal disease, the vaccine could be cost-neutral to society or the health sector at low efficacy (28 and 37.5%, respectively, without boosting and with 70% coverage). If it were effective against morbidity from bacteraemia only, the vaccine's efficacy would need to be 75 and 89%, respectively. If protection against both morbidity and mortality from pneumococcal bacteraemia was 50%, the net cost to society would be 2500 pounds per year of life saved ( 3365 pounds from the health-sector perspective). Results were sensitive to incidence, case-fatality rates, and costs of illness. CONCLUSIONS: A vaccine with moderate efficacy against bacteraemic illness and death would be cost-effective. If it also protected against pneumonia, it would be cost-effective even if its efficacy were low

Impact of School Closures on an Influenza Pandemic: Scientific Evidence Base Review

School closure has been recommended as a potential component of a mitigation strategy during an influenza pandemic, and schools were closed in the UK and elsewhere during the 2009 pandemic. This report aims to inform the development of options for policy in influenza pandemics by collating and updating the evidence base concerning the effects of school closure on influenza transmission

Estimates of the transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) influenza pandemic: evidence of increased transmissibility between successive waves.

The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R(0)) were in the range of 1.06-2.06 for the first wave and, assuming cross-protection, 1.21-3.58 in the second. Within each wave, there was little geographic variation in transmissibility. In the 10 settings for which data were available for both waves, R(0) was estimated to be higher during the second wave than during the first. This might partly explain the larger outbreaks in the second wave as compared with the first. This potential for change in viral behavior may have consequences for future pandemic mitigation strategies

A cohort study of the effectiveness of influenza vaccine in older people, performed using the United Kingdom general practice research database.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of influenza vaccination against hospitalization and death can only ethically be assessed in observational studies. A concern is that individuals who are vaccinated are healthier than individuals who are not vaccinated, potentially biasing estimates of effectiveness upward. METHODS: We conducted a historical cohort study of individuals >64 years of age, for whom there were data available in the General Practice Research Database for 1989 to 1999 in England and Wales. Rates of admissions for acute respiratory diseases and rates of death due to respiratory disease were compared over 692,819 person-years in vaccine recipients and 1,534,280 person-years in vaccine nonrecipients. RESULTS: The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against hospitalizations for acute respiratory disease was 21% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17%-26%). The rate reduction attributable to vaccination was 4.15 hospitalizations/100,000 person-weeks in the influenza season. Among vaccine recipients, no important reduction in the number of admissions to the hospital was seen outside influenza seasons. The pooled effectiveness of vaccine against deaths due to respiratory disease was 12% (95% CI, 8%-16%). A greater proportionate reduction was seen among people without medical disorders, but absolute rate reduction was higher in individuals with medical disorders, compared with individuals without such disorders (6.14 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks vs. 3.12 deaths due to respiratory disease/100,000 person-weeks). Clear protection against death due to all causes was not seen. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination reduces the number of hospitalizations and deaths due to respiratory disease, after correction for confounding in individuals >64 years of age who had a high risk or a low risk for influenza. For elderly people, untargeted influenza vaccination is of confirmed benefit against serious outcomes

ECDC scientific advice on seasonal influenza vaccination of children and pregnant women

The aim of this guidance document is to provide EU/EEA Member States and EU bodies with relevant information to make an informed decision on routine vaccination of healthy children and pregnant women with seasonal influenza vaccine. The options presented in this document are based on a systematic review of the literature and the opinions of a group of independent experts

Cross-sectional survey of older peoples' views related to influenza vaccine uptake

BACKGROUND: The population's views concerning influenza vaccine are important in maintaining high uptake of a vaccine that is required yearly to be effective. Little is also known about the views of the more vulnerable older population over the age of 74 years. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of community dwelling people aged 75 years and over wh, previous participant was conducted using a postal questionnaire. Responses were analysed by vaccine uptake records and by socio-demographic and medical factors. RESULTS: 85% of men and 75% of women were vaccinated against influenza in the previous year. Over 80% reported being influenced by a recommendation by a health care worker. The most common reason reported for non uptake was good health (44%), or illness considered to be due to the vaccine (25%). An exploration of the crude associations with socio-economic status suggested there may be some differences in the population with these two main reasons. 81% of people reporting good health lived in owner occupied housing with central heating vs. 63% who did not state this as a reason (p = 0.04), whereas people reporting ill health due to the vaccine was associated with poorer social circumstances. 11% lived in the least deprived neighbourhood compared to 36% who did not state this as a reason (p = 0.05) and were less likely to be currently married than those who did not state this as a reason (25% vs 48% p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: Vaccine uptake was high, but non uptake was still noted in 1 in 4 women and 1 in 7 men aged over 74 years. Around 70% reported they would not have the vaccine in the following year. The divergent reasons for non-uptake, and the positive influence from a health care worker, suggests further uptake will require education and encouragement from a health care worker tailored towards the different views for not having influenza vaccination. Non-uptake of influenza vaccine because people viewed themselves as in good health may explain the modest socio-economic differentials in influenza vaccine uptake in elderly people noted elsewhere. Reporting of ill-health due to the vaccine may be associated with a different, poorer background

The identification and validity of congenital malformation diagnoses in UK electronic health records: A systematic review

PURPOSE: To describe the methods used to identify and validate congenital malformation diagnoses recorded in UK electronic health records, and the results of validation studies. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched for publications between 1987 and 2019 that involved identifying congenital malformations from UK electronic health records using diagnostic codes. The methods and code-lists used to identify congenital malformations, and the methods and results of validations, were examined. RESULTS: We retrieved 54 eligible studies; 36 identified congenital malformations from primary care data and 18 from secondary care data alone or in combination with birth and/or death records. Identification in secondary care data relied on codes from the 'Q' chapter for congenital malformations in ICD-10. In contrast, studies using primary care data frequently used additional codes outside of the 'P' chapter for congenital malformation diagnoses in Read, although the exact codes used were not always clear. Eight studies validated diagnoses identified in primary care data. The positive predictive value was highest (80-100%) for congenital malformations overall, major malformations, and heart defects although the validity of the reference standard used was often uncertain. It was lowest for neural tube defects (71%) and developmental hip dysplasia (56%). CONCLUSIONS: Studies identifying congenital malformations from primary care data provided limited details about the methods used. The few validation studies were limited to diagnoses recorded in primary care. Further assessments of all measures of validity in both data sources and of other malformation subgroups are needed, using robust reference standards and adhering to reporting guidelines. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Estimating time-varying exposure-outcome associations using case-control data: logistic and case-cohort analyses.

BACKGROUND: Traditional analyses of standard case-control studies using logistic regression do not allow estimation of time-varying associations between exposures and the outcome. We present two approaches which allow this. The motivation is a study of vaccine efficacy as a function of time since vaccination. METHODS: Our first approach is to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations by fitting a series of logistic regressions within successive time periods, reusing controls across periods. Our second approach treats the case-control sample as a case-cohort study, with the controls forming the subcohort. In the case-cohort analysis, controls contribute information at all times they are at risk. Extensions allow left truncation, frequency matching and, using the case-cohort analysis, time-varying exposures. Simulations are used to investigate the methods. RESULTS: The simulation results show that both methods give correct estimates of time-varying effects of exposures using standard case-control data. Using the logistic approach there are efficiency gains by reusing controls over time and care should be taken over the definition of controls within time periods. However, using the case-cohort analysis there is no ambiguity over the definition of controls. The performance of the two analyses is very similar when controls are used most efficiently under the logistic approach. CONCLUSIONS: Using our methods, case-control studies can be used to estimate time-varying exposure-outcome associations where they may not previously have been considered. The case-cohort analysis has several advantages, including that it allows estimation of time-varying associations as a continuous function of time, while the logistic regression approach is restricted to assuming a step function form for the time-varying association

Cancer survival differences between South Asians and non-South Asians of England in 1986-2004, accounting for age at diagnosis and deprivation.

BACKGROUND: South Asian migrants show lower cancer incidence than their host population in England for most major cancers. We seek to study the ethnic differences in survival from cancer. METHODS: We described and modelled the effect of ethnicity, time, age and deprivation on survival for the five most incident cancers in each sex in South Asians in England between 1986 and 2004 using national cancer registry data. South Asian ethnicity was flagged using the validated name-recognition algorithm SANGRA (South Asian Names and Group Recognition Algorithm). RESULTS: We observed survival advantage in South Asians in earlier periods. This ethnic gap either remained constant or narrowed over time. By 2004, age-standardised net survival was comparable for all cancers except three in men, where South Asians had higher survival 5 years after diagnosis: colorectal (58.9% vs 53.6%), liver (15.0% vs 9.4%) and lung (15.9% vs 9.3%). Compared with non-South Asians, South Asians experienced a slower increase in breast and prostate cancer survival, both cancers associated with either a screening programme or an early diagnosis test. We did not find differential patterns in survival by deprivation between both ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Considering recent survival trends, appropriate action is required to avoid deficits in cancer survival among South Asians in the near future

The impact of targeting all elderly persons in England and Wales for yearly influenza vaccination: excess mortality due to pneumonia or influenza and time trend study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact on mortality due to pneumonia or influenza of the change from risk-based to age group-based targeting of the elderly for yearly influenza vaccination in England and Wales. DESIGN: Excess mortality estimated using time series of deaths registered to pneumonia or influenza, accounting for seasonality, trend and artefacts. Non-excess mortality plotted as proxy for long-term trend in mortality. SETTING: England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 65-74 and 75+ years whose deaths were registered to underlying pneumonia or influenza between 1975/1976 and 2004/2005. OUTCOME MEASURES: Multiplicative effect on average excess pneumonia and influenza deaths each winter in the 4-6 winters since age group-based targeting of vaccination was introduced (in persons aged 75+ years from 1998/1999; in persons aged 65+ years from 2000/2001), estimated using multivariable regression adjusted for temperature, antigenic drift and vaccine mismatch, and stratified by dominant circulating influenza subtype. Trend in baseline weekly pneumonia and influenza death rates. RESULTS: There is a suggestion of lower average excess mortality in the six winters after age group-based targeting began compared to before, but the CI for the 65-74 years age group includes no difference. Trend in baseline pneumonia and influenza mortality shows an apparent downward turning point around 2000 for the 65-74 years age group and from the mid-1990s in the 75+ years age group. CONCLUSIONS: There is weakly supportive evidence that the marked increases in vaccine coverage accompanying the switch from risk-based to age group-based targeting of the elderly for yearly influenza vaccination in England and Wales were associated with lower levels of pneumonia and influenza mortality in older people in the first 6 years after age group-based targeting began. The possible impact of these policy changes is observed as weak evidence for lower average excess mortality as well as a turning point in baseline mortality coincident with the changes