Moving radiation protection on from the limitations of empirical concentration ratios

Radionuclide activity concentrations in food crops and wildlife are most often predicted using empirical concentration ratios (CRs). The CR approach is simple to apply and some data exist with which to parameterise models. However, the parameter is highly variable leading to considerable uncertainty in predictions. Furthermore, for both crops and wildlife we have no, or few, data for many radionuclides and realistically, we are never going to have specific data for every radionuclide - wildlife/crop combination. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using residual maximum likelihood (REML) fitting of a linear mixed effects model; the model output is an estimate of the rank-order of relative values. This methodology gives a less uncertain approach than the CR approach, as it takes into account the effect of site; it also gives a scientifically based extrapolation approach. We demonstrate the approach using the examples of Cs for plants and Pb for terrestrial wildlife. This is the first published application of the REML approach to terrestrial wildlife (previous applications being limited to the consideration of plants). The model presented gives reasonable predictions for a blind test dataset

Tree diversity and above-ground biomass in the South America Cerrado biome and their conservation implications

Less than half of the original two million square kilometers of the Cerrado vegetation remains standing, and there are still many uncertainties as to how to conserve and prioritize remaining areas effectively. A key limitation is the continuing lack of geographically-extensive evaluation of ecosystem-level properties across the biome. Here we sought to address this gap by comparing the woody vegetation of the typical cerrado of the Cerrado–Amazonia Transition with that of the core area of the Cerrado in terms of both tree diversity and vegetation biomass. We used 21 one-hectare plots in the transition and 18 in the core to compare key structural parameters (tree height, basal area, and above-ground biomass), and diversity metrics between the regions. We also evaluated the effects of temperature and precipitation on biomass, as well as explored the species diversity versus biomass relationship. We found, for the first time, both that the typical cerrado at the transition holds substantially more biomass than at the core, and that higher temperature and greater precipitation can explain this difference. By contrast, plot-level alpha diversity was almost identical in the two regions. Finally, contrary to some theoretical expectations, we found no positive relationship between species diversity and biomass for the Cerrado woody vegetation. This has implications for the development of effective conservation measures, given that areas with high biomass and importance for the compensation of greenhouse gas emissions are often not those with the greatest diversity