Analysis of residuals and adjustment in JRA

Joint Regression Analysis (JRA) is based in linear regression applied to yields, adjusting one linear regression per cultivar. The environmental indexes in JRA correspond to a non observable regressor which measures the productivity of the blocks in the field trials. Usually zig-zag algorithm is used in the adjustment. In this algorithm, minimizations for the regression coefficients alternate with those for the environmental indexes. The algorithm has performed very nicely but a general proof of convergence to the absolute minimum of the sum of squares of residues is still lucking. We now present a model for the residues that may be used to validate the adjustments carried out by the zig-zag algorithm

Deteção precoce da epidemia sazonal de gripe

Os autores agradecem à Prof. Doutora Carlota Louro (Linha Saúde 24), pela colaboração e disponibilização dos dados indispensáveis a elaboração deste trabalhoA deteção precoce da epidemia sazonal de gripe é fundamental para o planeamento e implementação adequada de um conjunto de procedimentos nas unidades de saúde, bem como nas recomendações a dar à população. Atualmente esta deteção assenta no sistema de vigilância da gripe, que inclui a Rede Médicos- Sentinela (Rede MS), um Sistema de Observação em Saúde, constituído por médicos de família, cuja atividade profissional é desenvolvida em Centros de Saúde. A participação dos clínicos na Rede é estritamente voluntária e inclui uma notificação contínua, semanal, dos novos casos de doença ocorridos nos utentes inscritos nas listas dos médicos participantes. Além disso, o sistema assenta também numa Rede de serviços de urgência sentinela que enviam zaragatoas para a vigilância virológica. Esta Rede tem entre os seus objetivos a vigilância epidemiológica de algumas doenças que ocorrem na comunidade, de forma a permitir a identificação precoce de eventuais "surtos", nomeadamente a Gripe. A Linha Saúde 24 (Linha S24) é uma linha de atendimento telefónico gratuito, de âmbito nacional, atendida por enfermeiros qualificados, disponível 24h/dia, que recolhe dados permanentemente e visa responder às necessidades manifestadas pelos cidadãos em matéria de saúde, contribuindo para ampliar e melhorar a acessibilidade aos serviços e racionalizar a utilização dos recursos existentes através do encaminhamento dos Utentes para as instituições integradas no Serviço Nacional de Saúde mais adequadas. Através do contacto telefónico, os enfermeiros identificam qual o principal problema de saúde e através de uma aplicação informática aplicam algoritmos de decisão para determinar qual a disposição e encaminhamento clínico (que pode ser oscilar entre o aconselhamento de vigilância da situação por parte do utente ou o transporte urgente através dos meios de emergência pré-hospitalar do Instituto Nacional de Emergência Médica-INEM). Os dados de que dispõe constituem uma importante fonte de informação que pode ser utilizada para permitir uma deteção precoce de surtos nas populações. Já existe experiência internacional da utilização deste tipo de sistemas, com resultados relevantes na antecipação da deteção de surtos 1,2,3. Assim, com este trabalho pretende-se verificar se a informação colhida pela Linha S24, durante as chamadas telefónicas de apoio e encaminhamento, permite identificar um “sinal” do início da epidemia sazonal de gripe na população portuguesa. Este resultado irá permitir uma muito melhor adequação dos recursos e das recomendações dadas à população em resposta à epidemia de gripe e seus impactos

Joint regression analysis applied to genotype stability evaluation over years

Most genotype differences connected with yield stability are due to genotype environment interaction. The presence and dimension of this interaction are the factors that determine the performance of genotypes in distinct environments. The environmental factors, like annual rainfall, temperature, diseases or soil fertility, can only explain part of this interaction. Many statistical tools have been developed with the aim to explain the information contained in the GE interaction data matrix. In our work we use the Joint Regression Analysis (JRA), the Zig-Zag Algorithm to estimate the regression coefficients and the multiple comparison tests of Scheffé, Tukey and Bonferroni. We point out not just the limitations of the JRA when used year by year, but also genotype selection advantage from general JRA over years. Data of the Portuguese Plant Breeding Board were used to carry the year and over years analyses of yielding stability of 22 different genotypes of oat (Avena sativa L.) at six different locations in the years 2002, 2003 and 2004.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Revegetação e seus efeitos na sucessão ecológica em pedreiras calcárias após exploração: a pedreira da Secil como caso-estudo

Tese de mestrado. Biologia (Biologia da Conservação). Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2008A recuperação de ecossistemas profundamente perturbados pelo Homem, através dos processos naturais de sucessão ecológica, é muito lenta. Uma das actividades mais destrutivas é a exploração de pedreiras, pois remove totalmente o solo e as componentes vegetais e animais a ele associadas. Desta forma, o grau de degradação é tão profundo que a capacidade de recuperação fica gravemente limitada. No sentido de auxiliar essa mesma recuperação, têm sido desenvolvidas diferentes técnicas na área da ecologia da restauração, como o caso da revegetação levada a cabo na pedreira de calcário da SECIL, Serra da Arrábida (Portugal). Esta é realizada em patamares com intervalos de três anos, formando uma cronossequência com comunidades de diferentes idades. Com este trabalho procurou-se avaliar os efeitos da revegetação na sucessão dos grupos vegetação, artrópodes epígeos e micromamíferos em cinco locais bem distintos – três patamares com idades diferentes, um local na área natural (referência) e um na área ardida, ambas adjacentes à pedreira. Em relação à vegetação, esta parece estar a desenvolver-se no sentido da área de referência, sendo, no entanto, Pinus halepensis responsável pela maior diferença entre as áreas revegetadas e a natural. Embora seja importante nas fases iniciais da recuperação, esta espécie deve ser alvo de medidas de gestão de forma a direccionar o desenvolvimento da vegetação no sentido da área de referência. A similaridade de vários grupos de fauna (taxa de artrópodes, famílias de coleópteros e micromamíferos) entre os patamares e a área de referência, assim como a presença de muitas espécies de carabídeos e de arbustivas estabelecidas espontaneamente, indicam sucesso na colonização, podendo reflectir o êxito da estratégia de recuperação utilizada. Apesar de a área ardida ter sido perturbada há menos tempo, o processo de sucessão secundária natural e a proximidade física à área de referência parecem colocar este local num estádio mais avançado de recuperação.The recovery of severely man-disturbed ecosystems, through natural ecological succession mechanisms, is a process that takes place over a long period of time. One of the most destructive activities is quarrying, which is responsible for the total depletion of the soil, as well as the associated vegetation and animal components. Thus, the degree of degradation is so deep that the recovery capacity is gravely affected. In order to assist this process, several techniques have been developed in the field of restoration ecology, such as the revegetation activities taking place at the SECIL limestone quarry within Serra da Arrábida (Portugal). The platforms are revegetated at three-year intervals, forming a chronosequence with differently aged communities. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate the effects of revegetation on the succession of three groups – vegetation, epigean arthropods and small mammals – in five areas: three platforms of different ages and two surrounding areas, one of them natural (reference) and the other recently disturbed by fire. The vegetation seems to be developing in the direction of the reference area. However, Pinus halepensis is the major responsible for the differences between this area and revegetated ones. Even though this species is important in the initial stages of recovery, management measures should be taken regarding the situation of the reference area. The existing similarity of various groups of animals (arthropods taxa, beetle families and small mammals) between the revegetated areas and the reference, in conjunction with the presence of many carabid species, as well as the spontaneous establishment of shrubs, indicate success in the process of colonization, and may also be a sign of success of the employed recovery strategy. Although the burned area had been disturbed more recently than the revegetated areas, the process of natural secondary succession taking place and the spatial proximity to the reference may have taken this site to a more advanced recovery state

Early detection of influenza activity using telephone helpline data

The annual influenza season is a recurring time period characterized by the prevalence of outbreaks of influenza. Early detection of these outbreaks is paramount to allocating resources and effective counter measures. Methods: Using data from the Portuguese health helpline we selected 17 triage algorithms that relate with the influenza case definition used by ECDC. We listed the weekly number of calls for each algorithm and the total number of calls to the counselling line, from week 40 to 20 (seasonal influenza) from 2010-2013. Data was then compared with data from the sentinel system (standard surveillance in Portugal) with up to 5 weeks lag, using a cross correlation function. Correlations above 0,5 were considered of interest. In parallel, the MEM - Moving Epidemic Method was applied to determine a baseline threshold for the beginning of the epidemic period. Results: We analysed 1.032.724 calls (an average of 10.432 calls each week), and the “cough algorithm” presented the highest correlation (0,83) to data from the sentinel network, with a 3 weeks lag. Using MEM, we were able to detect the beginning of the epidemic period 3 to 5 weeks in advance, comparing to data from the sentinel network. Conclusion: The baseline provided by the selected algorithms allowed, on average, three weeks of advanced warning for seasonal influenza activity. Using two techniques (cross correlation and MEM) we were able to detect early signs of seasonal influenza activity, specifically with influenza related symptoms, namely coughing

Green spaces are not all the same for the provision of air purification and climate regulationservices: the case of urban parks

The growing human population concentrated in urban areas lead to the increase of road traffic and artificial areas, consequently enhancing air pollution and urban heat island effects, among others. These environmental changes affect citizen's health, causing a high number of premature deaths, with considerable social and economic costs. Nature-based solutions are essential to ameliorate those impacts in urban areas. While the mere presence of urban green spaces is pointed as an overarching solution, the relative importance of specific vegetation structure, composition and management to improve the ecosystem services of air purification and climate regulation are overlooked. This avoids the establishment of optimized planning and management procedures for urban green spaces with high spatial resolution and detail. Our aim was to understand the relative contribution of vegetation structure, composition and management for the provision of ecosystem services of air purification and climate regulation in urban green spaces, in particular the case of urban parks. This work was done in a large urban park with different types of vegetation surrounded by urban areas. As indicators of microclimatic effects and of air pollution levels we selected different metrics: lichen diversity and pollutants accumulation in lichens. Among lichen diversity, functional traits related to nutrient and water requirements were used as surrogates of the capacity of vegetation to filter air pollution and to regulate climate, and provide air purification and climate regulation ecosystem services, respectively. This was also obtained with very high spatial resolution which allows detailed spatial planning for optimization of ecosystem services. We found that vegetation type characterized by a more complex structure (trees, shrubs and herbaceous layers) and by the absence of management (pruning, irrigation and fertilization) had a higher capacity to provide the ecosystems services of air purification and climate regulation. By contrast, lawns, which have a less complex structure and are highly managed, were associated to a lower capacity to provide these services. Tree plantations showed an intermediate effect between the other two types of vegetation. Thus, vegetation structure, composition and management are important to optimize green spaces capacity to purify air and regulate climate. Taking this into account green spaces can be managed at high spatial resolutions to optimize these ecosystem services in urban areas and contribute to improve human well-beinginfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Ecological restoration across the Mediterranean Basin as viewed by practitioners

Restoration efforts in the Mediterranean Basin have been changing from a silvicultural to an ecological restoration approach. Yet, to what extent the projects are guided by ecological restoration principles remains largely unknown. To analyse this issue, we built an on-line survey addressed to restoration practitioners. We analysed 36 restoration projects, mostly from drylands (86%). The projects used mainly soil from local sources. The need to comply with legislation was more important as a restoration motive for European Union (EU) than for non-EU countries, while public opinion and health had a greater importance in the latter. Non-EU countries relied more on non-native plant species than EU countries, thus deviating from ecological restoration guidelines. Nursery-grown plants used were mostly of local or regional provenance, whilst seeds were mostly of national provenance. Unexpected restoration results (e.g. inadequate biodiversity) were reported for 50% of the projects and restoration success was never evaluated in 22%. Long term evaluation (> 6 years) was only performed in 31% of cases, and based primarily on plant diversity and cover. The use of non-native species and species of exogenous provenances may: i) entail the loss of local genetic and functional trait diversity, critical to cope with drought, particularly under the predicted climate change scenarios, and ii) lead to unexpected competition with native species and/or negatively impact local biotic interactions. Absent or inappropriate monitoring may prevent the understanding of restoration trajectories, precluding adaptive management strategies, often crucial to create functional ecosystems able to provide ecosystem services. The overview of ecological restoration projects in the Mediterranean Basin revealed high variability among practices and highlighted the need for improved scientific assistance and information exchange, greater use of native species of local provenance, and more long-term monitoring and evaluation, including functional and ecosystem services' indicators, to improve and spread the practice of ecological restoration

Estimation of the allergenic potential of urban trees and urban parks: Towards the healthy design of urban green spaces of the future

The impact of allergens emitted by urban green spaces on health is one of the main disservices of ecosystems. The objective of this work is to establish the potential allergenic value of some tree species in urban environments, so that the allergenicity of green spaces can be estimated through application of the Index of Urban Green Zones Allergenicity (IUGZA). Multiple types of green spaces in Mediterranean cities were selected for the estimation of IUGZ. The results show that some of the ornamental species native to the Mediterranean are among the main causative agents of allergy in the population; in particular, Oleaceae, Cupressaceae, Fagaceae, and Platanus hispanica. Variables of the strongest impact on IUGZA were the bioclimatic characteristics of the territory and design aspects, such as the density of trees and the number of species. We concluded that the methodology to assess the allergenicity associated with urban trees and urban areas presented in this work opens new perspectives in the design and planning of urban green spaces, pointing out the need to consider the potential allergenicity of a species when selecting plant material to be used in cities. Only then can urban green areas be inclusive spaces, in terms of public health.This work has been made possible thanks to members of the Silva MediterraneaWorking Group on Urban and Peri-Urban Forestry (FAO WG7) and COST Action FP1204 Green Infrastructure approach: linking environmental with social aspects in studying and managing urban forests. Nezha Acil thanks the technical sta of ISESCO park for their help during his first visit to the park. Maria Beatrice Andreucci also thanks students Giada Di Sante, Guglielmo Pirri e Daniele Purini for her course in Environmental Technological Design of the Master degree in Landscape Architecture at Sapienza Università di Roma for participation in the tree inventory and Duilio Iamonico for the tree taxonomy classification review. The research by the Slovenian Forestry Institute was financially supported by the Program and Research group P4-0107 “Forest ecology, biology and technology” funded by the Slovenian Research Agency.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

National immunization strategies targeting migrants in six European countries

Over the last three years an unprecedented flow of migrants arrived in Europe. There is evidence that vaccine preventable diseases have caused outbreaks in migrant holding centres. These outbreaks can be favored by a combination of factors including low immunization coverage, bad conditions that migrants face during their exhausting journey and overcrowding within holding facilities. In 2017, we conducted an online survey in Croatia, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Slovenia to explore the national immunization strategies targeting irregular migrants, refugees and asylum seekers. All countries stated that a national regulation supporting vaccination offer to migrants is available. Croatia, Italy, Portugal and Slovenia offer to migrant children and adolescents all vaccinations included in the National Immunization Plan; Greece and Malta offer only certain vaccinations, including those against diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, poliomyelitis and measles-mumps-rubella. Croatia, Italy, Malta and Portugal also extend the vaccination offer to adults. All countries deliver vaccinations in holding centres and/or community health services, no one delivers vaccinations at entry site. Operating procedures that guarantee the migrants' access to vaccination at the community level are available only in Portugal. Data on administered vaccines is available at the national level in four countries: individual data in Malta and Croatia, aggregated data in Greece and Portugal. Data on vaccination uptake among migrants is available at national level only in Malta. Concluding, although diversified, strategies for migrant vaccination are in place in all the surveyed countries and generally in line with WHO and ECDC indications. Development of procedures to keep track of migrants' immunization data across countries, development of strategies to facilitate and monitor migrants' access to vaccinations at the community level and collection of data on vaccination uptake among migrants should be promoted to meet existing gaps. The study was conducted in the framework of the CARE (''Common Approach for REfugees and other migrants' health") project (717217/CARE) that received funding from the EU health Programme (2014–2020). info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Statistical Modelling: Application to the financial sector

Our research is centred on the stochastic structure of matched open populations, subjected to periodical reclassifications. These populations are divided into sub-populations. In our application we considered two populations of customers of a bank: with and without account manager. Two or more of such population are matched when there is a 1-1 correspondence between their sub-populations and the elements of one of them can go to another, if and only if the same occurs with elements from the corresponding sub-populations of the other. So we have inputs and outputs of elements in the population and along with several sub-populations in which the elements can be placed. It is thus natural to use Markov chains to model these populations. Besides this study connected with Markov chains we show how to carry out Analysis of Variance - like analysis of entries and departures to and from de populations of customers. Our purpose is to study the flows in and out of customers in classes for the two populations and to make research on the influence of the factors year, class and region. We used the Likelihood ratio tests for the hypotheses formulated on the basis of these factors. In our work we verified that major hypotheses were all rejected. This raises the question of what are the effects and interactions truly relevant. Looking for an answer to this problem, we present the first partition to a change in the log Likelihood. This partition is very similar to the analysis of variance for the crossing of the factors that allowed us to use algebraic established results, see Fonseca et al. (2003, 2006), for models with balanced cross