Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Valorisation of Biowastes for the Production of Green Materials Using Chemical Methods

With crude oil reserves dwindling, the hunt for a sustainable alternative feedstock for fuels and materials for our society continues to expand. The biorefinery concept has enjoyed both a surge in popularity and also vocal opposition to the idea of diverting food-grade land and crops for this purpose. The idea of using the inevitable wastes arising from biomass processing, particularly farming and food production, is, therefore, gaining more attention as the feedstock for the biorefinery. For the three main components of biomass—carbohydrates, lipids, and proteins—there are long-established processes for using some of these by-products. However, the recent advances in chemical technologies are expanding both the feedstocks available for processing and the products that be obtained. Herein, this review presents some of the more recent developments in processing these molecules for green materials, as well as case studies that bring these technologies and materials together into final products for applied usage

Compliance in oxygen saturation targeting in preterm infants : a systematic review

UNLABELLED: During oxygen therapy in preterm infants, targeting oxygen saturation is important for avoiding hypoxaemia and hyperoxaemia, but this can be very difficult and challenging for neonatal nurses. We systematically reviewed the qualitative and quantitative studies investigating the compliance in targeting oxygen saturation in preterm infants and factors that influence this compliance. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane, CINAHL and ScienceDirect from 2000 to January 2015. Sixteen studies were selected, which involved a total of 2935 nurses and 574 infants. The studies varied in methodology, and we have therefore used a narrative account to describe the data. The main finding is that there is a low compliance in oxygen targeting; the upper alarm limits are inappropriately set, and maintaining the saturation (SpO2) below the upper limit presented particular difficulties. Although there is little data available, the studies indicate that training, titration protocols and decreasing workload could improve awareness and compliance. Automated oxygen regulations have been shown to increase the time that SpO2 is within the target range. CONCLUSION: The compliance in targeting oxygen during oxygen therapy in preterm infants is low, especially in maintaining the SpO2 below the upper limit. WHAT IS KNOWN: • The use of oxygen in preterm infants is vital, but the optimal strategyremains controversial. • Targeting SpO2 during oxygen therapy in preterm infants has beenshown to reduce mortality and morbidity. WHAT IS NEW: • Review of the literature showed that the compliance in targeting SpO2and alarm settings is low. • Creating awareness of risks of oxygen therapy and benefits in targeting,decreasing nurse/patient ratio and automated oxygen therapy couldincrease compliance

Correlation and Interchangeability of Venous and Capillary Blood Gases in Non-Critically Ill Neonates

Background: Venous blood gas (VBG) is frequently used in the neonatal unit as alternative for capillary blood gas (CBG). However, studies reporting correlation are conflicting and data on interchangeability in neonates are lacking. Objective: We investigated the correlation and interchangeability of the components between VBG and CBG in infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. Methods: In a prospective study in the neonatal unit in Leiden University Medical Center (Netherlands), simultaneously VBG and CBG were withdrawn in neonates when both venous puncture and intravenous access as blood gas monitoring was indicated. From each blood gas analysis, a Pearson correlation, intraclass correlation, and Bland-Altman analysis was performed. Clinically acceptable difference for each blood gas value was defined up-front by means of an absolute difference: pH ± 0.05; partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) (±0.67 kPa = 5 mmHg); partial pressure of oxygen (pO2) (±0.67 kPa = 5 mmHg); base excess ± 3 mmol/l; and bicarbonate (HCO3-) ± 3 mmol/l. Results: In 93 patients [median gestational age 31 (IQR 29-34) weeks], 193 paired samples of VBG and CBG were collected. The Pearson correlation between VBG and CBG was very strong for pH (r = 0.79; P < 0.001), BE (r = 0.90; P < 0.001) and bicarbonate (r = 0.87; P < 0.001); strong for pCO2 (r = 0.68; P < 0.001); and moderate for pO2 (r = 0.31; P < 0.001). The percentage of the interchangeability within our acceptable absolute difference for pH was 88%, pCO2 72%, pO2 55%, BE 90%, and bicarbonate 94%. Conclusion: VBG and CBG in neonates are well correlated and mostly interchangeable, except for pO2

Long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in children after antenatal intravenous immune globulin treatment in fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia

Background: Children with fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia face increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage potentially leading to developmental impairment. To prevent intracranial hemorrhage, pregnant women with alloantibodies against fetal platelets are often treated with intravenous immunoglobulin. Intravenous immunoglobulin seems effective in vastly reducing the risk of fetal or neonatal bleeding complications. However, information on long-term neurodevelopment of these children is lacking. Objective: This study aimed to evaluate long-term neurodevelopmental outcome in children with fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia who were treated with intravenous immunoglobulin antenatally. Study Design: An observational cohort study was performed, including children of mothers treated with intravenous immunoglobulin during pregnancy because a previous child was diagnosed with fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia. Children were invited for a follow-up assessment including standardized cognitive and neurologic tests. The parents were asked to complete a behavioral questionnaire and school performance reports. The primary outcome was severe neurodevelopmental impairment, defined as severe cognitive impairment (intelligence quotient <70), cerebral palsy with Gross Motor Function Classification System Level ≥3, bilateral blindness, and/or bilateral deafness (requiring amplification). The secondary outcome was mild to moderate neurodevelopmental impairment, defined as either mild to moderate cognitive impairment (intelligence quotient <85), cerebral palsy with Gross Motor Function Classification System Level ≤2, minor neurologic dysfunction, vision loss, and/or hearing loss. Results: Between 2003 and 2017, 51 children were live-born after antenatal intravenous immunoglobulin treatment. One family moved abroad and was therefore not eligible for inclusion. In total, 82% (41/50) of the eligible cases were included for neurodevelopmental assessment at a median age of 9 years and 8 months. Severe neurodevelopmental impairment was not detected. The incidence of mild to moderate neurodevelopmental impairment was 14% (6/41; 95% confidence interval, 6%–29%). The children's mean cognitive score, behavioral scores, and academic achievement were not different from those observed in the Dutch norm groups. Neuroimaging was performed in 90% (37/41) of cases. Severe intracranial hemorrhage was diagnosed in 2 cases (5%), one antenatally before the start of intravenous immunoglobulin and the other case 1 day after birth. Both cases had a normal neurodevelopmental outcome. Conclusion: The risk of neurodevelopmental impairment in children whose mothers were treated for fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia with antenatal intravenous immunoglobulin is comparable to that reported in the general population

Clinical and molecular characterization of an infant with a tandem duplication and deletion of 19p13

Copy number variations (CNVs) on the short arm of chromosome 19 are relatively rare. We present a patient with a tandem de novo 3.9Mb duplication of 19p13.12p13.2 and an adjacent 288kb deletion of 19p13.12. The CNVs were detected by genome wide SNP-array and confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Mate-pair sequencing revealed two breakpoint junctions leading to a germline tandem inverted duplication and an adjacent deletion. The patient had a major congenital heart defect and refractory edema leading to metabolic and endocrinological disturbances. Further complications occurred due to refractory chylothorax, severe inflammatory response syndrome, and repeating sepsis. After 2 months, the child died due to intractable respiratory failure. The phenotype of this patient was compared with reported patients with overlapping deletions or duplications. We conclude that the congenital heart defect, respiratory insufficiency, and abnormal neurologic examination are most likely due the contiguous gene deletion/duplication

Spatial epigenetic control of mono- and bistable gene expression

Bistability in signaling networks is frequently employed to promote stochastic switch-like transitions between cellular differentiation states. Differentiation can also be triggered by antagonism of activators and repressors mediated by epigenetic processes that constitute regulatory circuits anchored to the chromosome. Their regulatory logic has remained unclear. A reaction-diffusion model reveals that the same reaction mechanism can support both graded monostable and switch-like bistable gene expression, depending on whether recruited repressor proteins generate a single silencing gradient or two interacting gradients that flank a gene. Our experiments confirm that chromosomal recruitment of activator and repressor proteins permits a plastic form of control; the stability of gene expression is determined by the spatial distribution of silencing nucleation sites along the chromosome. The unveiled regulatory principles will help to understand the mechanisms of variegated gene expression, to design synthetic genetic networks that combine transcriptional regulatory motifs with chromatin-based epigenetic effects, and to control cellular differentiation