Nicholas Kaldor’s life and his insights into the applied economics of growth

This article celebrates the life and work of the Hungarian economist Nicholas Kaldor, and particularly his emphasis on industrial structure and the role of demand in determining the growth performance of nations

Explaining differences in the productivity of investment across countries in the context of ‘new growth theory’

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of investment across 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980-2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The productivity of investment is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s gross investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability are the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment and the determinants of productivity of investment differences matter for long-run growth

Why does the productivity of investment vary across countries?

Abstract: Please refer to full text to view abstrac

A Life in Economics

The paper is the first inaugural contribution to the new series of "Recollections of Eminent Economists". Under this name, the previous series of the journal (then called "Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review") used to publish autobiographic essays in which renowned economists described their scientific path and reflected on the recent developments of the discipline. In this work, A.P. Thirlwall recalls his personal and academic biography, ranging from employment in the UK to consultancy work in developing countries, and comments on the reception of his main works. Among the latter, special attention is paid to regional and development economics, as well as to the relation between the balance of payments and economic growth. Throughout the discussion, the author emphasizes the Keynesian inspiration of his analyses

Thoughts on balance-of-payments-constrained growth after 40 years

This paper considers how Thirlwall's balance-of-payments-constrained growth model has fared over the preceding 40 years. Issues dealt with include how the model fits into Harrod's closed-economy dynamic model; whether the model is a tautology; the role of the exchange rate and terms of trade in influencing the long-run growth rate, and whether capital inflows make any difference to the long-run predictions of the model. The conclusion is that it is mainly the structure of production and trade that determines the long-run growth rate of countries, within a balance-of-payments equilibrium framework, as determinants of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports

The Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone in the Neo-Tethyan suture, western Iran: Zircon U–Pb evidence of late Palaeozoic rifting of northern Gondwana and mid-Jurassic orogenesis

The Zagros Orogen, marking the closure of the Neo-Tethyan Ocean, formed by continental collision beginning in the late Eocene to early Miocene. Collision was preceded by a complicated tectonic history involving Pan-African orogenesis, Late Palaeozoic rifting forming Neo-Tethys, followed by Mesozoic convergence on the ocean\u27s northern margin and ophiolite obduction on its southern margin. The Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone is a metamorphic belt in the Zagros Orogen of Gondwanan provenance. Zircon ages have established Pan-African basement igneous and metamorphic complexes in addition to uncommon late Palaeozoic plutons and abundant Jurassic plutonic rocks. We have determined zircon ages from units in the northwestern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone (Golpaygan region). A sample of quartzite from the June Complex has detrital zircons with U-Pb ages mainly in 800-1050 Ma with a maximum depositional age of 547 ± 32 Ma (latest Neoproterozoic¿earliest Cambrian). A SHRIMP U-Pb zircon age of 336 ± 9 Ma from gabbro in the June Complex indicates a Carboniferous plutonic event that is also recorded in the far northwestern Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone. Together with the Permian Hasanrobat Granite near Golpaygan, they all are considered related to rifting marking formation of Neo-Tethys. Scarce detrital zircons from an extensive package of metasedimentary rocks (Hamadan Phyllite) have ages consistent with the Triassic to Early Jurassic age previously determined from fossils. These ages confirm that an orogenic episode affected the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone in the Early to Middle Jurassic (Cimmerian Orogeny). Although the Cimmerian Orogeny in northern Iran reflects late Triassic to Jurassic collision of the Turan platform (southern Eurasia) and the Cimmerian microcontinent, we consider that in the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone a tectonothermal event coeval with the Cimmerian Orogeny resulted from initiation of subduction and closure of rift basins along the northern margin of Neo-Tethys

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease