Performance of A1C for the Classification and Prediction of Diabetes

OBJECTIVE Although A1C is now recommended to diagnose diabetes, its test performance for diagnosis and prognosis is uncertain. Our objective was to assess the test performance of A1C against single and repeat glucose measurements for diagnosis of prevalent diabetes and for prediction of incident diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted population-based analyses of 12,485 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and a subpopulation of 691 participants in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) with repeat test results. RESULTS Against a single fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl, the sensitivity and specificity of A1C ≥6.5% for detection of prevalent diabetes were 47 and 98%, respectively (area under the curve 0.892). Against repeated fasting glucose (3 years apart) ≥126 mg/dl, sensitivity improved to 67% and specificity remained high (97%) (AUC 0.936). Similar results were obtained in NHANES III against repeated fasting glucose 2 weeks apart. The accuracy of A1C was consistent across age, BMI, and race groups. For individuals with fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl and A1C ≥6.5% at baseline, the 10-year risk of diagnosed diabetes was 88% compared with 55% among those individuals with fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dl and A1C 5.7–<6.5%. CONCLUSIONS A1C performs well as a diagnostic tool when diabetes definitions that most closely resemble those used in clinical practice are used as the “gold standard.” The high risk of diabetes among individuals with both elevated fasting glucose and A1C suggests a dual role for fasting glucose and A1C for prediction of diabetes. Although A1C is now recommended for the diagnosis of diabetes (1,2), its precise test performance is uncertain. The lack of a single, clear “gold standard” poses a challenge for determining the performance of A1C. Previous diagnostic studies of A1C have relied exclusively on a single elevated fasting or 2-h glucose values as gold standards (3–5). However, because glucose determinations are inherently more variable than A1C (6), these convenient gold standards are likely to reduce the apparent accuracy of A1C as a diagnostic test. A stronger gold standard would rely on repeated glucose determinations on different days (2), i.e., the recommended approach to diagnosis of diabetes in clinical practice. Alternatively, A1C and fasting glucose can be compared head-to-head against the subsequent development of clinically diagnosed diabetes as the gold standard. We hypothesized that 1) A1C would perform well as a diagnostic and prognostic test for diabetes across its full range and at the American Diabetes Association–recommended threshold of 6.5% and 2) that its performance would be best when judged against stronger, most clinically relevant gold standards

Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Death—Does Insurance Matter?

BACKGROUND: Many Americans lack health insurance. Despite good evidence that lack of insurance compromises access to care, few prospective studies examine its relationship to health outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between insurance and cardiovascular outcomes and the relationship between insurance and selected process measures. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: We used data from 15,792 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, a prospective cohort study. Participants were enrolled in 1987–1989 and returned for follow-up visits every 3 years, for a total of 4 visits. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We estimated the hazard of myocardial infarction, stroke, and death associated with insurance status using Cox proportional hazard modeling. We used generalized estimating equations to examine the association between insurance status and risk of (1) reporting no routine physical examinations, (2) being unaware of a personal cardiovascular risk condition, and (3) inadequate control of cardiovascular risk conditions. RESULTS: Persons without insurance had higher rates of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% CI 1.22–2.22) and death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.26, 95% CI 1.03–1.53), but not myocardial infarction, than those who were insured. The uninsured were less likely to report routine physical examinations (adjusted risk ratio 1.13, 95% CI 1.08–1.18); more likely to be unaware of hypertension (adjusted risk ratio 1.12, 95% CI 1.00–1.25) and hyperlipidemia (adjusted risk ratio 1.11, 95% CI 1.03–1.19); and more likely to have poor blood pressure control (adjusted risk ratio 1.23, 95% CI 1.08–1.39). CONCLUSIONS: Lack of health insurance is associated with increased rates of stroke and death and with less awareness and control of cardiovascular risk conditions. Health insurance may improve cardiovascular risk factor awareness, control and outcomes

Do changes in traditional coronary heart disease risk factors over time explain the association between socio-economic status and coronary heart disease?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Socioeconomic status (SES) predicts coronary heart disease independently of the traditional risk factors included in the Framingham risk score. However, it is unknown whether <it>changes </it>in Framingham risk score variables over time explain the association between SES and coronary heart disease. We examined this question given its relevance to risk assessment in clinical decision making.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study data (initiated in 1987 with 10-years follow-up of 15,495 adults aged 45-64 years in four Southern and Mid-Western communities) were used. SES was assessed at baseline, dichotomized as low SES (defined as low education and/or low income) or not. The time dependent variables - smoking, total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and use of blood pressure lowering medication - were assessed every three years. Ten-year incidence of coronary heart disease was based on EKG and cardiac enzyme criteria, or adjudicated death certificate data. Cox survival analyses examined the contribution of SES to heart disease risk independent of baseline Framingham risk score, without and with further adjustment for the time dependent variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Adjusting for baseline Framingham risk score, low SES was associated with an increased coronary heart disease risk (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.53; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.27 to1.85). After further adjustment for the time dependent variables, the SES effect remained significant (HR = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.19 to1.74).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using Framingham Risk Score alone under estimated the coronary heart disease risk in low SES persons. This bias was not eliminated by subsequent changes in Framingham risk score variables.</p

Genetic Variation and Reproductive Timing: African American Women from the Population Architecture Using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study

Age at menarche (AM) and age at natural menopause (ANM) define the boundaries of the reproductive lifespan in women. Their timing is associated with various diseases, including cancer and cardiovascular disease. Genome-wide association studies have identified several genetic variants associated with either AM or ANM in populations of largely European or Asian descent women. The extent to which these associations generalize to diverse populations remains unknown. Therefore, we sought to replicate previously reported AM and ANM findings and to identify novel AM and ANM variants using the Metabochip (n = 161,098 SNPs) in 4,159 and 1,860 African American women, respectively, in the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) studies, as part of the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study. We replicated or generalized one previously identified variant for AM, rs1361108/CENPW, and two variants for ANM, rs897798/BRSK1 and rs769450/APOE, to our African American cohort. Overall, generalization of the majority of previously-identified variants for AM and ANM, including LIN28B and MCM8, was not observed in this African American sample. We identified three novel loci associated with ANM that reached significance after multiple testing correction (LDLR rs189596789, p = 5×10-08; KCNQ1 rs79972789, p = 1.9×10-07; COL4A3BP rs181686584, p = 2.9×10-07). Our most significant AM association was upstream of RSF1, a gene implicated in ovarian and breast cancers (rs11604207, p = 1.6×10-06). While most associations were identified in either AM or ANM, we did identify genes suggestively associated with both: PHACTR1 and ARHGAP42. The lack of generalization coupled with the potentially novel associations identified here emphasize the need for additional genetic discovery efforts for AM and ANM in diverse populations. © 2013 Spencer et al

Possible Race and Gender Divergence in Association of Genetic Variations with Plasma von Willebrand Factor: A Study of ARIC and 1000 Genome Cohorts

The synthesis, secretion and clearance of von Willebrand factor (VWF) are regulated by genetic variations in coding and promoter regions of the VWF gene. We have previously identified 19 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), primarily in introns that are associated with VWF antigen levels in subjects of European descent. In this study, we conducted race by gender analyses to compare the association of VWF SNPs with VWF antigen among 10,434 healthy Americans of European (EA) or African (AA) descent from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Among 75 SNPs analyzed, 13 and 10 SNPs were associated with VWF antigen levels in EA male and EA female subjects, respectively. However, only one SNP (RS1063857) was significantly associated with VWF antigen in AA females and none was in AA males. Haplotype analysis of the ARIC samples and studying racial diversities in the VWF gene from the 1000 genomes database suggest a greater degree of variations in the VWF gene in AA subjects as compared to EA subjects. Together, these data suggest potential race and gender divergence in regulating VWF expression by genetic variations

The Next PAGE in Understanding Complex Traits: Design for the Analysis of Population Architecture Using Genetics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study

Genetic studies have identified thousands of variants associated with complex traits. However, most association studies are limited to populations of European descent and a single phenotype. The Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study was initiated in 2008 by the National Human Genome Research Institute to investigate the epidemiologic architecture of well-replicated genetic variants associated with complex diseases in several large, ethnically diverse population-based studies. Combining DNA samples and hundreds of phenotypes from multiple cohorts, PAGE is well-suited to address generalization of associations and variability of effects in diverse populations; identify genetic and environmental modifiers; evaluate disease subtypes, intermediate phenotypes, and biomarkers; and investigate associations with novel phenotypes. PAGE investigators harmonize phenotypes across studies where possible and perform coordinated cohort-specific analyses and meta-analyses. PAGE researchers are genotyping thousands of genetic variants in up to 121,000 DNA samples from African-American, white, Hispanic/Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, and American Indian participants. Initial analyses will focus on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with obesity, lipids, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, inflammation, various cancers, and related biomarkers. PAGE SNPs are also assessed for pleiotropy using the “phenome-wide association study” approach, testing each SNP for associations with hundreds of phenotypes. PAGE data will be deposited into the National Center for Biotechnology Information's Database of Genotypes and Phenotypes and made available via a custom browser

Birth weight and the risk of atrial fibrillation in whites and African Americans: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

Background: Low birth weight (LBW) has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). A previous study, however, found higher risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in individuals with higher birth weight (BW). To further understand this apparent paradox, we examined the relationship between AF and BW in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. Methods: The analysis included 10,132 individuals free of AF at baseline (1996-1998), who provided BW information, were not born premature, and were not a twin. Self-reported BW was categorized as low (&lt;2.5 kg), medium (2.5-4 kg), and high (&gt;4.0 kg). AF incidence was ascertained from hospital discharge codes and death certificates. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to determine the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF across BW groups. Results: During an average follow-up of 10.3 years, we identified 882 incident AF cases. LBW was associated with higher risk of AF. Compared to individuals in the medium BW category, the HR (95% CI) of AF was 1.33 (0.99, 1.78) for LBW and 1.00 (0.81, 1.24) for high BW after adjusting for sociodemographic variables (p for trend = 0.29). Additional adjustment for CVD risk factors did not attenuate the associations (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06, 1.90 for LBW and HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.69-1.07 for high BW, compared to medium BW, p for trend = 0.01).Conclusion: LBW was associated with a higher risk of AF. This association was independent of known predictors of AF and is consistent with that observed for other cardiovascular diseases. © 2014 Lawani et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Blood Viscosity and Hematocrit as Risk Factors for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Several lines of evidence support the notion that elevated blood viscosity may predispose to insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus by limiting delivery of glucose, insulin, and oxygen to metabolically active tissues. To test this hypothesis, the authors analyzed longitudinal data on 12,881 initially nondiabetic adults, aged 45–64 years, who were participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (1987–1998). Whole blood viscosity was estimated by using a validated formula based on hematocrit and total plasma proteins at baseline. At baseline, estimated blood viscosity was independently associated with several features of the metabolic syndrome. In models adjusted simultaneously for known predictors of diabetes, estimated whole blood viscosity and hematocrit predicted incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in a graded fashion (Ptrend (linear) < 0.001): Compared with their counterparts in the lowest quartiles, adults in the highest quartile of blood viscosity (hazard ratio = 1.68, 95% confidence interval: 1.53, 1.84) and hematocrit (hazard ratio = 1.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.49, 1.79) were over 60% more likely to develop diabetes. Therefore, elevated blood viscosity and hematocrit deserve attention as emerging risk factors for insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus

Usual choline and betaine dietary intake and incident coronary heart disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low dietary intake of the essential nutrient choline and its metabolite betaine may increase atherogenesis both through effects on homocysteine methylation pathways as well as through choline's antioxidants properties. Nutrient values for many common foods for choline and betaine have recently become available in the U.S. nutrient composition database. Our objective was to assess the association of dietary intake of choline and betaine with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), adjusting for dietary intake measurement error.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a prospective investigation of the relation between usual intake of choline and betaine with the risk of CHD in 14,430 middle-aged men and women of the biethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess nutrient intake. Proportional hazard regression models were used to calculate the risk of incident CHD. A regression calibration method was used to adjust for measurement error.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During an average 14 years of follow-up (1987–2002), 1,072 incident CHD events were documented. Compared with the lowest quartile of intake, incident CHD risk was slightly and non-significantly higher in the highest quartile of choline and choline plus betaine, HR = 1.22 (0.91, 1.64) and HR = 1.14 (0.85, 1.53), controlling for age, sex, education, total energy intake, dietary intakes of folate, methionine and vitamin B₆. No association was found between dietary choline intake and incident CHD when correcting for measurement error.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Higher intakes of choline and betaine were not protective for incident CHD. Similar investigations in other populations are of interest.</p

Repeatability and measurement error in the assessment of choline and betaine dietary intake: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Abstract Background The repeatability of a risk factor measurement affects the ability to accurately ascertain its association with a specific outcome. Choline is involved in methylation of homocysteine, a putative risk factor for cardiovascular disease, to methionine through a betaine-dependent pathway (one-carbon metabolism). It is unknown whether dietary intake of choline meets the recommended Adequate Intake (AI) proposed for choline (550 mg/day for men and 425 mg/day for women). The Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) remains to be established in population settings. Our objectives were to ascertain the reliability of choline and related nutrients (folate and methionine) intakes assessed with a brief food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and to estimate dietary intake of choline and betaine in a bi-ethnic population. Methods We estimated the FFQ dietary instrument reliability for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the measurement error for choline and related nutrients from a stratified random sample of the ARIC study participants at the second visit, 1990–92 (N = 1,004). In ARIC, a population-based cohort of 15,792 men and women aged 45–64 years (1987–89) recruited at four locales in the U.S., diet was assessed in 15,706 baseline study participants using a version of the Willett 61-item FFQ, expanded to include some ethnic foods. Intraindividual variability for choline, folate and methionine were estimated using mixed models regression. Results Measurement error was substantial for the nutrients considered. The reliability coefficients were 0.50 for choline (0.50 for choline plus betaine), 0.53 for folate, 0.48 for methionine and 0.43 for total energy intake. In the ARIC population, the median and the 75th percentile of dietary choline intake were 284 mg/day and 367 mg/day, respectively. 94% of men and 89% of women had an intake of choline below that proposed as AI. African Americans had a lower dietary intake of choline in both genders. Conclusion The three-year reliability of reported dietary intake was similar for choline and related nutrients, in the range as that published in the literature for other micronutrients. Using a brief FFQ to estimate intake, the majority of individuals in the ARIC cohort had an intake of choline below the values proposed as AI