Horizontal Branch Stars: The Interplay between Observations and Theory, and Insights into the Formation of the Galaxy

We review HB stars in a broad astrophysical context, including both variable and non-variable stars. A reassessment of the Oosterhoff dichotomy is presented, which provides unprecedented detail regarding its origin and systematics. We show that the Oosterhoff dichotomy and the distribution of globular clusters (GCs) in the HB morphology-metallicity plane both exclude, with high statistical significance, the possibility that the Galactic halo may have formed from the accretion of dwarf galaxies resembling present-day Milky Way satellites such as Fornax, Sagittarius, and the LMC. A rediscussion of the second-parameter problem is presented. A technique is proposed to estimate the HB types of extragalactic GCs on the basis of integrated far-UV photometry. The relationship between the absolute V magnitude of the HB at the RR Lyrae level and metallicity, as obtained on the basis of trigonometric parallax measurements for the star RR Lyrae, is also revisited, giving a distance modulus to the LMC of (m-M)_0 = 18.44+/-0.11. RR Lyrae period change rates are studied. Finally, the conductive opacities used in evolutionary calculations of low-mass stars are investigated. [ABRIDGED]Comment: 56 pages, 22 figures. Invited review, to appear in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 +/- 0.02C/year, mean +/- 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 +/- 0.01C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 +/- 0.01C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere. Supporting model data available at: https://doi.org/10.25773/c774-a36

Longitudinal study of computerised cardiotocography in early fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVES: To explore if in early fetal growth restriction (FGR) the longitudinal pattern of short-term fetal heart rate (FHR) variation (STV) can be used for identifying imminent fetal distress and if abnormalities of FHR registration associate with two-year infant outcome. METHODS: The original TRUFFLE study assessed if in early FGR the use of ductus venosus Doppler pulsatility index (DVPI), in combination with a safety-net of very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations, could improve two-year infant survival without neurological impairment in comparison to computerised cardiotocography (cCTG) with STV calculation only. For this secondary analysis we selected women, who delivered before 32 weeks, and who had consecutive STV data for more than 3 days before delivery, and known infant two-year outcome data. Women who received corticosteroids within 3 days of delivery were excluded. Individual regression line algorithms of all STV values except the last one were calculated. Life table analysis and Cox regression analysis were used to calculate the day by day risk for a low STV or very low STV and / or FHR decelerations (DVPI group safety-net) and to assess which parameters were associated to this risk. Furthermore, it was assessed if STV pattern, lowest STV value or recurrent FHR decelerations were associated with two-year infant outcome. RESULTS: One hundred and fourty-nine women matched the inclusion criteria. Using the individual STV regression lines prediction of a last STV below the cCTG-group cut-off had a sensitivity of 0.42 and specificity of 0.91. For each day after inclusion the median risk for a low STV(cCTG criteria) was 4% (Interquartile range (IQR) 2% to 7%) and for a very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations (DVPI safety-net criteria) 5% (IQR 4 to 7%). Measures of STV pattern, fetal Doppler (arterial or venous), birthweight MoM or gestational age did not improve daily risk prediction usefully. There was no association of STV regression coefficients, a last low STV or /and recurrent decelerations with short or long term infant outcomes. CONCLUSION: The TRUFFLE study showed that a strategy of DVPI monitoring with a safety-net delivery indication of very low STV and / or recurrent decelerations could increase infant survival without neurological impairment at two years. This post-hoc analysis demonstrates that in early FGR the day by day risk of an abnormal cCTG as defined by the DVPI protocol safety-net criteria is 5%, and that prediction of this is not possible. This supports the rationale for cCTG monitoring more often than daily in these high-risk fetuses. Low STV and/or recurrent decelerations were not associated with adverse infant outcome and it appears safe to delay intervention until such abnormalities occur, as long as DVPI is in the normal range

Primordial Nucleosynthesis for the New Cosmology: Determining Uncertainties and Examining Concordance

Big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) have a long history together in the standard cosmology. The general concordance between the predicted and observed light element abundances provides a direct probe of the universal baryon density. Recent CMB anisotropy measurements, particularly the observations performed by the WMAP satellite, examine this concordance by independently measuring the cosmic baryon density. Key to this test of concordance is a quantitative understanding of the uncertainties in the BBN light element abundance predictions. These uncertainties are dominated by systematic errors in nuclear cross sections. We critically analyze the cross section data, producing representations that describe this data and its uncertainties, taking into account the correlations among data, and explicitly treating the systematic errors between data sets. Using these updated nuclear inputs, we compute the new BBN abundance predictions, and quantitatively examine their concordance with observations. Depending on what deuterium observations are adopted, one gets the following constraints on the baryon density: OmegaBh^2=0.0229\pm0.0013 or OmegaBh^2 = 0.0216^{+0.0020}_{-0.0021} at 68% confidence, fixing N_{\nu,eff}=3.0. Concerns over systematics in helium and lithium observations limit the confidence constraints based on this data provide. With new nuclear cross section data, light element abundance observations and the ever increasing resolution of the CMB anisotropy, tighter constraints can be placed on nuclear and particle astrophysics. ABRIDGEDComment: 54 pages, 20 figures, 5 tables v2: reflects PRD version minor changes to text and reference

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362