Ensemble representation of uncertainty in Lagrangian satellite rainfall estimates

A new algorithm called Lagrangian Simulation (LSIM) has been developed that enables the interpolation uncertainty present in Lagrangian satellite rainfall algorithms such as the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH) to be characterized using an ensemble product. The new algorithm generates ensemble sequences of rainfall fields conditioned on multiplatform multisensor microwave satellite data, demonstrating a conditional simulation approach that overcomes the problem of discontinuous uncertainty fields inherent in this type of product. Each ensemble member is consistent with the information present in the satellite data, while variation between members is indicative of uncertainty in the rainfall retrievals. LSIM is based on the combination of a Markov weather generator, conditioned on both previous and subsequent microwave measurements, and a global optimization procedure that uses simulated annealing to constrain the generated rainfall fields to display appropriate spatial structures. The new algorithm has been validated over a region of the continental United States and has been shown to provide reliable estimates of both point uncertainty distributions and wider spatiotemporal structures

Primary production during nutrient-induced blooms at elevated CO2 concentrations

Mesocosms experiments (PeECE II and PeECE III) were carried out in 9 transparent mesocosms. Prior to the experimental period, the seawater carbonate system was manipulated to achieve three different levels of CO2. At the onset of the experimental period, nutrients were added to all mesocosms in order to initiate phytoplankton blooms. Rates of primary production were measured by in-situ incubations using 14C-incorporation and oxygen production/consumption. Particulate primary production by 14C was also size fractionated and compared with phytoplankton species composition. Nutrient supply increased the primary production rates, and a net autotrophic phase with 14C-fixation rates up to 4 times higher than initial was observed midway through the 24 days experiment before net community production returned to near-zero and 14C-fixation rates relaxed back to lower than initial. We found a trend in the 14C-based measurements towards higher cumulative primary production at higher pCO2, consistent with recently published results for DIC removal (Riebesell et al., 2007). There where found differences to the size fractionated primary production response to CO2 treatments. The plankton composition changes throughout the bloom, however, resulted in no significant response until the final phase of the experiment where phytoplankton growth became nutrient limited, and phytoplankton community changed from diatom to flagellate dominance. This opens for the two alternative hypotheses that such an effect is associated with mineral nutrient limited growth, and/or with phytoplankton species composition. The lack of a clear net heterotrophic phase in the last part of the experiment supports the idea that a substantial part of production in the upper layer was not degraded locally, but either accumulated there or was exported vertically

Pelagic community production and carbon-nutrient stoichiometry under variable ocean acidification in an Arctic fjord

Net community production (NCP) and carbon to nutrient uptake ratios were studied during a large-scale mesocosm experiment on ocean acidification in Kongsfjorden, western Svalbard, during June–July 2010. Nutrient depleted fjord water with natural plankton assemblages, enclosed in nine mesocosms of ~ 50 m3 in volume, was exposed to pCO2 levels ranging initially from 185 to 1420 μatm. NCP estimations are the cumulative change in dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations after accounting for gas exchange and total alkalinity variations. Stoichiometric coupling between inorganic carbon and nutrient net uptake is shown as a ratio of NCP to a cumulative change in inorganic nutrients. Phytoplankton growth was stimulated by nutrient addition half way through the experiment and three distinct peaks in chlorophyll a concentration were observed during the experiment. Accordingly, the experiment was divided in three phases. Cumulative NCP was similar in all mesocosms over the duration of the experiment. However, in phases I and II, NCP was higher and in phase III lower at elevated pCO2. Due to relatively low inorganic nutrient concentration in phase I, C : N and C : P uptake ratios were calculated only for the period after nutrient addition (phase II and phase III). For the total post-nutrient period (phase II + phase III) ratios were close to Redfield, however they were lower in phase II and higher in phase III. Variability of NCP, C : N and C : P uptake ratios in different phases reflects the effect of increasing CO2 on phytoplankton community composition and succession. The phytoplankton community was composed predominantly of haptophytes in phase I, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates, and cryptophytes in phase II, and haptophytes, prasinophytes, dinoflagellates and chlorophytes in phase III (Schulz et al., 2013). Increasing ambient inorganic carbon concentrations have also been shown to promote primary production and carbon assimilation. For this study, it is clear that the pelagic ecosystem response to increasing CO2 is more complex than that represented in previous work, e.g. Bellerby et al. (2008). Carbon and nutrient uptake representation in models should, where possible, be more focused on individual plankton functional types as applying a single stoichiometry to a biogeochemical model with regard to the effect of increasing pCO2 may not always be optimal. The phase variability in NCP and stoichiometry may be better understood if CO2 sensitivities of the plankton's functional type biogeochemical uptake kinetics and trophic interactions are better constrained

Effect of increased pCO2 on the planktonic metabolic balance during a mesocosm experiment in an Arctic fjord

The effect of ocean acidification on the balance between gross community production (GCP) and community respiration (CR) (i.e., net community production, NCP) of plankton communities was investigated in summer 2010 in Kongsfjorden, west of Svalbard. Surface water, which was characterized by low concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll a (a proxy of phytoplankton biomass), was enclosed in nine mesocosms and subjected to eight pCO2 levels (two replicated controls and seven enhanced pCO2 treatments) for one month. Nutrients were added to all mesocosms on day 13 of the experiment, and thereafter increase of chlorophyll a was provoked in all mesocosms. No clear trend in response to increasing pCO2 was found in the daily values of NCP, CR, and GCP. For further analysis, these parameters were cumulated for the following three periods: phase 1 – end of CO2 manipulation until nutrient addition (t4 to t13); phase 2 – nutrient addition until the second chlorophyll a minimum (t14 to t21); phase 3 – the second chlorophyll a minimum until the end of this study (t22 to t28). A significant response was detected as a decrease of NCP with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. CR was relatively stable throughout the experiment in all mesocosms. As a result, the cumulative GCP significantly decreased with increasing pCO2 during phase 3. After the nutrient addition, the ratios of cumulative NCP to cumulative consumption of NO3 and PO4 showed a significant decrease during phase 3 with increasing pCO2. The results suggest that elevated pCO2 influenced cumulative NCP and stoichiometric C and nutrient coupling of the plankton community in a high-latitude fjord only for a limited period. However provided that there were some differences or weak correlations between NCP data based on different methods in the same experiment, this conclusion should be taken with caution

Overview of the Nordic Seas CARINA data and salinity measurements

Water column data of carbon and carbon relevant hydrographic and hydrochemical parameters from 188 previously non-publicly available cruises in the Arctic, Atlantic, and Southern Ocean have been retrieved and merged into a new database: CARINA (CARbon IN the Atlantic). The data have been subject to rigorous quality control (QC) in order to ensure highest possible quality and consistency. The data for most of the parameters included were examined in order to quantify systematic biases in the reported values, i.e. secondary quality control. Significant biases have been corrected for in the data products, i.e. the three merged files with measured, calculated and interpolated values for each of the three CARINA regions; the Arctic Mediterranean Seas (AMS), the Atlantic (ATL) and the Southern Ocean (SO). With the adjustments the CARINA database is consistent both internally as well as with GLODAP (Key et al., 2004) and is suitable for accurate assessments of, for example, oceanic carbon inventories and uptake rates and for model validation. The Arctic Mediterranean Seas include the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas, and the quality control was carried out separately in these two areas. This contribution provides an overview of the CARINA data from the Nordic Seas and summarises the findings of the QC of the salinity data. One cruise had salinity data that were of questionable quality, and these have been removed from the data product. An evaluation of the consistency of the quality controlled salinity data suggests that they are consistent to at least ±0.005

Daily Precipitation over Southern Africa: A New Resource for Climate Studies

This paper describes a new high-resolution multiplatform multisensor satellite rainfall product for southern Africa covering the period 1993–2002. The microwave infrared rainfall algorithm (MIRA) employed to generate the rainfall estimates combines high spatial and temporal resolution Meteosat infrared data with infrequent Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) overpasses. A transfer function relating Meteosat thermal infrared cloud brightness temperatures to SSM/I rainfall estimates is derived using collocated data from the two instruments and then applied to the full coverage of the Meteosat data. An extensive continental-scale validation against synoptic station data of both the daily MIRA precipitation product and a normalized geostationary IR-only Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) precipitation index (GPI) demonstrates a consistent advantage using the former over the latter for rain delineation. Potential uses for the resulting high-resolution daily rainfall dataset are discussed

Phytoplankton Blooms at Increasing Levels of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Experimental Evidence for Negative Effects on Prymnesiophytes and Positive on Small Picoeukaryotes

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the ongoing accumulation in the surface ocean together with concomitantly decreasing pH and calcium carbonate saturation states have the potential to impact phytoplankton community composition and therefore biogeochemical element cycling on a global scale. Here we report on a recent mesocosm CO2 perturbation study (Raunefjorden, Norway), with a focus on organic matter and phytoplankton dynamics. Cell numbers of three phytoplankton groups were particularly affected by increasing levels of seawater CO2 throughout the entire experiment, with the cyanobacterium Synechococcus and picoeukaryotes (prasinophytes) profiting, and the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (prymnesiophyte) being negatively impacted. Combining these results with other phytoplankton community CO2 experiments into a data-set of global coverage suggests that, whenever CO2 effects are found, prymnesiophyte (especially coccolithophore) abundances are negatively affected, while the opposite holds true for small picoeukaryotes belonging to the class of prasinophytes, or the division of chlorophytes in general. Future reductions in calcium carbonate-producing coccolithophores, providing ballast which accelerates the sinking of particulate organic matter, together with increases in picoeukaryotes, an important component of the microbial loop in the euphotic zone, have the potential to impact marine export production, with feedbacks to Earth’s climate system.publishedVersio

Spectrophotometric Calibration of pH Electrodes in Seawater Using Purified m-Cresol Purple

This work examines the use of purified meta-cresol purple (mCP) for direct spectrophotometric calibration of glass pH electrodes in seawater. The procedures used in this investigation allow for simple, inexpensive electrode calibrations over salinities of 20–40 and temperatures of 278.15–308.15 K without preparation of synthetic Tris seawater buffers. The optimal pH range is ∼7.0–8.1. Spectrophotometric calibrations enable straightforward, quantitative distinctions between Nernstian and non-Nernstian electrode behavior. For the electrodes examined in this study, both types of behavior were observed. Furthermore, calibrations performed in natural seawater allow direct determination of the influence of salinity on electrode performance. The procedures developed in this study account for salinity-induced variations in liquid junction potentials that, if not taken into account, would create pH inconsistencies of 0.028 over a 10-unit change in salinity. Spectrophotometric calibration can also be used to expeditiously determine the intercept potential (i.e., the potential corresponding to pH 0) of an electrode that has reliably demonstrated Nernstian behavior. Titrations to ascertain Nernstian behavior and salinity effects can be undertaken relatively infrequently (∼weekly to monthly). One-point determinations of intercept potential should be undertaken frequently (∼daily) to monitor for stable electrode behavior and ensure accurate potentiometric pH determinations

Optimum satellite remote sensing of the marine carbonate system using empirical algorithms in the global ocean, the Greater Caribbean, the Amazon Plume and the Bay of Bengal

Improving our ability to monitor ocean carbonate chemistry has become a priority as the ocean continues to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This long-term uptake is reducing the ocean pH; a process commonly known as ocean acidification. The use of satellite Earth Observation has not yet been thoroughly explored as an option for routinely observing surface ocean carbonate chemistry, although its potential has been highlighted. We demonstrate the suitability of using empirical algorithms to calculate total alkalinity (AT) and total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT), assessing the relative performance of satellite, interpolated in situ, and climatology datasets in reproducing the wider spatial patterns of these two variables. Both AT and CT in situ data are reproducible, both regionally and globally, using salinity and temperature datasets, with satellite observed salinity from Aquarius and SMOS providing performance comparable to other datasets for the majority of case studies. Global root mean squared difference (RMSD) between in situ validation data and satellite estimates is 17 μmol kg−1 with bias  < 5 μmol kg−1 for AT and 30 μmol kg−1 with bias  < 10 μmol kg−1 for CT. This analysis demonstrates that satellite sensors provide a credible solution for monitoring surface synoptic scale AT and CT. It also enables the first demonstration of observation-based synoptic scale AT and CT temporal mixing in the Amazon plume for 2010–2016, complete with a robust estimation of their uncertainty