Structural Optimisation: Biomechanics of the Femur

A preliminary iterative 3D meso-scale structural model of the femur was developed, in which bar and shell elements were used to represent trabecular and cortical bone respectively. The cross-sectional areas of the bar elements and the thickness values of the shell elements were adjusted over successive iterations of the model based on a target strain stimulus, resulting in an optimised construct. The predicted trabecular architecture, and cortical thickness distribution showed good agreement with clinical observations, based on the application of a single leg stance load case during gait. The benefit of using a meso-scale structural approach in comparison to micro or macro-scale continuum approaches to predictive bone modelling was achievement of the symbiotic goals of computational efficiency and structural description of the femur.Comment: Accepted by Engineering and Computational Mechanics (Proceedings of the ICE

Development of fluorescent probes for bioimaging applications

Fluorescent probes, which allow visualization of cations such as Ca2+, Zn2+ etc., small biomolecules such as nitric oxide (NO) or enzyme activities in living cells by means of fluorescence microscopy, have become indispensable tools for clarifying functions in biological systems. This review deals with the general principles for the design of bioimaging fluorescent probes by modulating the fluorescence properties of fluorophores, employing mechanisms such as acceptor-excited Photoinduced electron Transfer (a-PeT), donor-excited Photoinduced electron Transfer (d-PeT), and spirocyclization, which have been established by our group. The a-PeT and d-PeT mechanisms are widely applicable for the design of bioimaging probes based on many fluorophores and the spirocyclization process is also expected to be useful as a fluorescence off/on switching mechanism. Fluorescence modulation mechanisms are essential for the rational design of novel fluorescence probes for target molecules. Based on these mechanisms, we have developed more than fifty bioimaging probes, of which fourteen are commercially available. The review also describes some applications of the probes developed by our group to in vitro and in vivo systems

Using Grizzly Bears to Assess Harvest-Ecosystem Tradeoffs in Salmon Fisheries

Using grizzly bears as surrogates for “salmon ecosystem” function, the authors develop a generalizable ecosystem-based management framework that enables decision-makers to quantify ecosystem-harvest tradeoffs between wild and human recipients of natural resources like fish

How accurately do routinely reported HIV viral load suppression proportions reflect progress towards the 909090 target in the population on antiretroviral treatment in Khayelitsha South Africa

Background. The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) third 90-90-90 target requires 90% of patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) to be virally suppressed (<1 000 copies/mL). In Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa viral load (VL) suppression of <400 copies/mL was reported as 89% in 2016, but only 56% of patients had a result recorded in routine data. We conceived a VL ‘cascade’ to represent the steps required for an expected VL to be reported as complete in routine data and thus contribute to reported VL suppression: among those for whom a VL is ‘expected’, a sample must be collected and tested (‘done’), a result must be ‘filed’ in the patient folder, ‘noted’ by a clinician and electronically ‘captured’. The low reported completion suggested gaps along the VL cascade and cast doubt on the validity of reported suppression.Objectives. To assess the validity of routinely reported VL suppression and identify barriers to VL completion.Methods. A retrospective cohort study between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2016, which included all Khayelitsha patients receiving ART, with a routine VL expected, was conducted. We obtained data routinely captured on site and VL data from the laboratory system. A sample of 1 035 patient folders was reviewed. VL suppression was calculated using laboratory data, including all tests done, and compared with reported suppression based on on-site captured electronic data. Successful progression through each step on the VL cascade was estimated. We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with laboratory data and reported VL testing.Results. Of 22 991 patients for whom a routine VL test was due, 84% were done, 79% filed, 76% noted and 55% captured. Using all laboratory data, VL suppression was  estimated as 82%, 87%, 89% and 91% at the 50, 200, 400 and 1 000 copies/mL thresholds, respectively, but reported suppression using captured results was 80%, 86%, 88% and 89% at those thresholds. Routine VL testing is more likely to be done in children <15 years old (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.45 - 2.48) and pregnant women (aOR 1.90, 95% CI 1.28 - 2.81) than in men, adjusted for facility.Conclusions. Despite a low reported completion, VL testing completion was high. Reported suppression using captured data was similar to suppression calculated using all laboratory data, which provided an accurate measure of progress towards the 90-90-90 target. More work is needed to reach the 16% of patients missed by routine testing

Connecting Warning with Decision and Action: A Partnership of Communicators and Users

In this chapter, we explore the challenges of achieving a level of awareness of disaster risk, by each person or organisation receiving a warning, which allows them to take actions to reduce potential impacts while being consistent with the warning producer’s capabilities and cost-effectiveness considerations. Firstly we show how people respond to warnings and how the nature and delivery of the warning affects their response. We look at the aims of the person providing the warning, the constraints within which they must act and the judgement process behind the issue of a warning. Then we address the delivery of the warning, noting that warning messages need to be tailored to different groups of receivers, and see how a partnership between warner and warned can produce a more effective result. We include illustrative examples of co-design of warning systems in Argentina and Nepal, experience in communicating uncertainty in Germany and the Weather-Ready Nation initiative in the USA. We conclude with a summary of aspects of the warning that need to be considered between warner and decision-maker when designing or upgrading a warning system

Measuring the capability to raise revenue process and output dimensions and their application to the Zambia revenue authority

The worldwide diffusion of the good governance agenda and new public management has triggered a renewed focus on state capability and, more specifically, on the capability to raise revenue in developing countries. However, the analytical tools for a comprehensive understanding of the capability to raise revenue remain underdeveloped. This article aims at filling this gap and presents a model consisting of the three process dimensions ‘information collection and processing’, ‘merit orientation’ and ‘administrative accountability’. ‘Revenue performance’ constitutes the fourth capability dimension which assesses tax administration’s output. This model is applied to the case of the Zambia Revenue Authority. The dimensions prove to be valuable not only for assessing the how much but also the how of collecting taxes. They can be a useful tool for future comparative analyses of tax administrations’ capabilities in developing countries.Die weltweite Verbreitung der Good-Governance- und New-Public-Management-Konzepte hat zu einer zunehmenden Konzentration auf staatliche Leistungsfähigkeit und, im Besonderen, auf die Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuererhebung in Entwicklungsländern geführt. Allerdings bleiben die analytischen Werkzeuge für ein umfassendes Verständnis von Leistungsfähigkeit unterentwickelt. Dieser Artikel stellt hierfür ein Modell vor, das die drei Prozess-Dimensionen „Sammeln und Verarbeiten von Informationen“, „Leistungsorientierung der Mitarbeiter“ und „Verantwortlichkeit der Verwaltung“ beinhaltet. „Einnahmeperformanz“ ist die vierte Dimension und erfasst den Output der Steuerverwaltung. Das mehrdimensionale Modell wird für die Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit der Steuerbehörde Zambias (Zambia Revenue Authority) genutzt. Es erweist sich nicht nur für die Untersuchung des Wieviel, sondern auch des Wie des Erhebens von Steuern als wertvoll. Die vier Dimensionen können in Zukunft zur umfassenden und vergleichenden Analyse der Leistungsfähigkeit verschiedener Steuerverwaltungen in Entwicklungsländern genutzt werden

Can forest management based on natural disturbances maintain ecological resilience?

Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. NDBM may maintain resilience if silvicultural strategies retain the structures and processes that perpetuate desired states while reducing those that enhance resilience of undesirable states. Such strategies require an understanding of harvesting impacts on slow ecosystem processes, such as seed-bank or nutrient dynamics, which in the long term can lead to ecological surprises by altering the forest's capacity to reorganize after disturbance

The utilisation of health research in policy-making: Concepts, examples and methods of assessment

The importance of health research utilisation in policy-making, and of understanding the mechanisms involved, is increasingly recognised. Recent reports calling for more resources to improve health in developing countries, and global pressures for accountability, draw greater attention to research-informed policy-making. Key utilisation issues have been described for at least twenty years, but the growing focus on health research systems creates additional dimensions. The utilisation of health research in policy-making should contribute to policies that may eventually lead to desired outcomes, including health gains. In this article, exploration of these issues is combined with a review of various forms of policy-making. When this is linked to analysis of different types of health research, it assists in building a comprehensive account of the diverse meanings of research utilisation. Previous studies report methods and conceptual frameworks that have been applied, if with varying degrees of success, to record utilisation in policy-making. These studies reveal various examples of research impact within a general picture of underutilisation. Factors potentially enhancing utilisation can be identified by exploration of: priority setting; activities of the health research system at the interface between research and policy-making; and the role of the recipients, or 'receptors', of health research. An interfaces and receptors model provides a framework for analysis. Recommendations about possible methods for assessing health research utilisation follow identification of the purposes of such assessments. Our conclusion is that research utilisation can be better understood, and enhanced, by developing assessment methods informed by conceptual analysis and review of previous studies