Conditional Heteroskedasticity in some Common Count Data Models for Financial Time Series Data

Conditional heteroskedasticity properties are derived for some common count data regression and time series models. New extensions are suggested and discussed.Conditional variance; time series; finance; traded stocks; Poisson.

Fragmentation of exotic oxygen isotopes

Abrasion-ablation models and the empirical EPAX parametrization of projectile fragmentation are described. Their cross section predictions are compared to recent data of the fragmentation of secondary beams of neutron-rich, unstable 19,20,21O isotopes at beam energies near 600 MeV/nucleon as well as data for stable 17,18O beams

A framework for closed-loop supply chains of reusable articles

Reuse practices contribute to the environmental and economical sustainability of production and distribution systems. Surprisingly, reuse closed-loop supply chains (CLSC) have not been widely researched for the moment. In this paper, we explore the scientific literature on reuse and we propose a framework for reusable articles. This conceptual structure includes a typology integrating under the reusable articles term different categories of articles (transportation items, packaging materials, tools) and addresses the management issues that arise in reuse CLSC. We ground our results in a set of case studies developed in real industrial settings, which have also been contrasted with cases available in existing literature.reverse logistics;case studies;closed-loop supply chains;returns managment

Living with a partner with dementia:a systematic review and thematic synthesis of spouses' lived experiences of changes in their everyday lives

ABSTRACTObjectives: Dementia causes dramatic changes in everyday-living for spouses. Occured changes in marital relationship, force spouses to perform more both mentally and physically. Leading to a spousal perceived burden. To improve understanding of spouses’ needs, spouses lived experiences is needed. The aim was to identify and synthesise qualitative studies on spouses’ lived experiences of living with a partner with dementia.Methods: A systematic search was undertaken in January 2017. Six databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, PubMed, PsycINFO and Sociological Abstracts) were searched, using search terms in accordance with PICo. A descriptive synthesis and a thematic synthesis were undertaken.Findings: Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Three themes derived from the analysis 1) Noticing changes in everyday life 2) Transformation to a new marital relation in everyday life, withcorresponding sub-themes; changes in marital relationship, management of the transitioned marital relation in everyday life 3) Planning the future.Conclusion: Findings provide an overview of how spouses notice changes and transform their marital relationships in everyday-life. Findings offer a deeper understanding of changes that occurs over time while the partner is living at home. Findings contribute with knowledge on spouses’ experiences of changes in early-stages of dementia. Interventions supporting spouses are needed

The Impact of Stock Market Jumps on Time-Varying Return Correlations: Empirical Evidence from the Baltic Countries

In this paper we study the impact of market jumps on the time varying return correlations between stock market indices in the Baltic countries. An EARJI-EGARCH model facilitating direct modelling of the time varying return correlations is introduced. The empirical results indicate that there is a quite large number of identi…ed jumps in the emerging Baltic stock markets. The main …nding is that isolated market jumps in one of the markets generally have no or small e¤ects on the time-varying correlations. In contrast, simultaneous jumps of equal sign increase the average correlation, in some cases with as much as 100 percent.Correlated jumps; contagion

User involvement and value co-creation in well-being ecosystems

Purpose: This article aims to examine how users' involvement in value co-creation influences the development and orchestration of well-being ecosystems to help tackle complex societal challenges. This research contributes to the public management literature and answers recent calls to investigate novel public service governances by discussing users' involvement and value co-creation for novel well-being solutions. Design/methodology/approach: The authors empirically explore this phenomenon through a case study of a complex ecosystem addressing increased well-being, focussing on the formative evaluation stage of a longitudinal evaluation of Sweden's first support centre for people affected by cancer. Following an abductive reasoning and action research approach, the authors critically discuss the potential of user involvement for the development of well-being ecosystems and outline preconditions for the success of such approaches. Findings: The empirical results indicate that resource reconfiguration of multi-actor collaborations provides a platform for value co-creation, innovative health services and availability of resources. Common themes include the need for multi-actor collaborations to reconfigure heterogeneous resources; actors' adaptive change capabilities; the role of governance mechanisms to align the diverse well-being ecosystem components, and the engagement of essential actors. Research limitations/implications: Although using a longitudinal case study approach has revealed stimulating insights, additional data collection, multiple cases and quantitative studies are prompted. Also, the authors focus on one country but the characteristics of users' involvement for value co-creation in innovative well-being ecosystems might vary between countries. Practical implications: The findings of this study demonstrate the value of cancer-affected individuals, with “lived experiences”, acting as sources for social innovation, and drivers of well-being ecosystem development. The findings also suggest that participating actors in the ecosystem should utilise wider knowledge and experience to tackle complex societal challenges associated with well-being. Social implications: Policymakers should encourage the formation of well-being ecosystems with diverse actors and resources that can help patients navigate health challenges. The findings especially show the potential of starting from the user's needs and life situation when the ambition is to integrate and innovate in fragmented systems. Originality/value: The proposed model proposes that having a user-led focus on innovating new solutions can play an important role in the development of well-being ecosystems

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents significantly delay the onset of a regular transfusion need in nontransfused patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndrome

Background The EUMDS registry is an unique prospective, longitudinal observational registry enrolling newly diagnosed patients with lower‐risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) from 17 European countries from both university hospitals and smaller regional hospitals. Objective The aim of this study was to describe the usage and clinical impact of erythropoiesis‐stimulating agents (ESAs) in 1696 patients enrolled between 2008 and 2014. Methods The effects of ESAs on outcomes were assessed using proportional hazards models weighting observations by propensity to receive ESA treatment within a subset of anaemic patients with or without a regular transfusion need. Results ESA treatment (median duration of 27.5 months, range 0–77 months) was administered to 773 patients (45.6%). Outcomes were assessed in 897 patients (484 ESA treated and 413 untreated). ESA treatment was associated with a nonsignificant survival benefit (HR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.65–1.04, P = 0.09); this benefit was larger amongst patients without prior transfusions (P = 0.07). Amongst 539 patients for whom response to ESA treatment could be defined, median time to first post‐ESA treatment transfusion was 6.1 months (IQR: 4.3–15.9 months) in those transfused before ESA treatment compared to 23.3 months (IQR: 7.0–47.8 months) in patients without prior transfusions (HR 2.4, 95% CI: 1.7–3.3, P < 0.0001). Responding patients had a better prognosis in terms of a lower risk of death (HR 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45–0.893, P = 0.018), whereas there was no significant effect on the risk of progression to acute myeloid leukaemia (HR 0.71, 95% CI: 0.39–1.29, P = 0.27). Conclusion Appropriate use of ESAs can significantly delay the onset of a regular transfusion need in patients with lower‐risk MDS

Slow-release L-cysteine capsule prevents gastric mucosa exposure to carcinogenic acetaldehyde : results of a randomised single-blinded, cross-over study of Helicobacter-associated atrophic gastritis

Introduction: Helicobacter-induced atrophic gastritis with a hypochlorhydric milieu is a risk factor for gastric cancer. Microbes colonising acid-free stomach oxidise ethanol to acetaldehyde, a recognised group 1 carcinogen. Objective: To assess gastric production of acetaldehyde and its inert condensation product, non-toxic 2-methyl-1,3-thiazolidine-4-carboxylic acid (MTCA), after alcohol intake under treatment with slow-release L-cysteine or placebo. Methods: Seven patients with biopsy-confirmed atrophic gastritis, low serum pepsinogen and high gastrin-17 were studied in a cross-over single-blinded design. On separate days, patients randomly received 200 mg slow-release L-cysteine or placebo with intragastric instillation of 15% (0.3 g/kg) ethanol. After intake, gastric concentrations of ethanol, acetaldehyde, L-cysteine and MTCA were analysed. Results: Administration of L-cysteine increased MTCA (p <.0004) and decreased gastric acetaldehyde concentrations by 68% (p <.0001). The peak L-cysteine level was 7552 +/- 2687 mu mol/L at 40 min and peak MTCA level 196 +/- 98 mu mol/L at 80 min after intake. Gastric L-cysteine and MTCA concentrations were maintained for 3 h. The AUC for MTCA was 11-fold higher than acetaldehyde, indicating gastric first-pass metabolism of ethanol. With placebo, acetaldehyde remained elevated also at low ethanol concentrations representing 'non-alcoholic' beverages and food items. Conclusions: After gastric ethanol instillation, slow-release L-cysteine eliminates acetaldehyde to form inactive MTCA, which remains in gastric juice for up to 3 h. High acetaldehyde levels indicate a marked gastric first-pass metabolism of ethanol resulting in gastric accumulation of carcinogenic acetaldehyde. Local exposure of the gastric mucosa to acetaldehyde can be mitigated by slow-release L-cysteine capsules.Peer reviewe

Insulin-like growth factor 1 has multisystem effects on foetal and preterm infant development.

UNLABELLED: Poor postnatal growth after preterm birth does not match the normal rapid growth in utero and is associated with preterm morbidities. Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) axis is the major hormonal mediator of growth in utero, and levels of IGF-1 are often very low after preterm birth. We reviewed the role of IGF-1 in foetal development and the corresponding preterm perinatal period to highlight the potential clinical importance of IGF-1 deficiency in preterm morbidities. CONCLUSION: There is a rationale for clinical trials to evaluate the potential benefits of IGF-1 replacement in very preterm infants.This work was supported by a European Commission FP7 project 305485 PREVENT-ROP grant to all of the authors.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1111/apa.1335