A system for rating the stability and strength of medical evidence

BACKGROUND: Methods for describing one's confidence in the available evidence are useful for end-users of evidence reviews. Analysts inevitably make judgments about the quality, quantity consistency, robustness, and magnitude of effects observed in the studies identified. The subjectivity of these judgments in several areas underscores the need for transparency in judgments. DISCUSSION: This paper introduces a new system for rating medical evidence. The system requires explicit judgments and provides explicit rules for balancing these judgments. Unlike other systems for rating the strength of evidence, our system draws a distinction between two types of conclusions: quantitative and qualitative. A quantitative conclusion addresses the question, "How well does it work?", whereas a qualitative conclusion addresses the question, "Does it work?" In our system, quantitative conclusions are tied to stability ratings, and qualitative conclusions are tied to strength ratings. Our system emphasizes extensive a priori criteria for judgments to reduce the potential for bias. Further, the system makes explicit the impact of heterogeneity testing, meta-analysis, and sensitivity analyses on evidence ratings. This article provides details of our system, including graphical depictions of how the numerous judgments that an analyst makes can be combined. We also describe two worked examples of how the system can be applied to both interventional and diagnostic technologies. SUMMARY: Although explicit judgments and formal combination rules are two important steps on the path to a comprehensive system for rating medical evidence, many additional steps must also be taken. Foremost among these are the distinction between quantitative and qualitative conclusions, an extensive set of a priori criteria for making judgments, and the direct impact of analytic results on evidence ratings. These attributes form the basis for a logically consistent system that can improve the usefulness of evidence reviews

Resolving the fine-scale velocity structure of continental hyperextension at the Deep Galicia Margin using full-waveform inversion

Continental hyperextension during magma-poor rifting at the Deep Galicia Margin is characterised by a complex pattern of faulting, thin continental fault blocks, and the serpentinisation, with local exhumation, of mantle peridotites along the S-reflector, interpreted as a detachment surface. In order to understand fully the evolution of these features, it is important to image seismically the structure and to model the velocity structure to the greatest resolution possible. Travel-time tomography models have revealed the long-wavelength velocity structure of this hyperextended domain, but are often insufficient to match accurately the short-wavelength structure observed in reflection seismic imaging. Here we demonstrate the application of two-dimensional (2D) time-domain acoustic full-waveform inversion to deep water seismic data collected at the Deep Galicia Margin, in order to attain a high resolution velocity model of continental hyperextension. We have used several quality assurance procedures to assess the velocity model, including comparison of the observed and modelled waveforms, checkerboard tests, testing of parameter and inversion strategy, and comparison with the migrated reflection image. Our final model exhibits an increase in the resolution of subsurface velocities, with particular improvement observed in the westernmost continental fault blocks, with a clear rotation of the velocity field to match steeply dipping reflectors. Across the S-reflector there is a sharpening in the velocity contrast, with lower velocities beneath S indicative of preferential mantle serpentinisation. This study supports the hypothesis that normal faulting acts to hydrate the upper mantle peridotite, observed as a systematic decrease in seismic velocities, consistent with increased serpentinisation. Our results confirm the feasibility of applying the full-waveform inversion method to sparse, deep water crustal datasets

Seismicity trends and detachment fault structure at 13°N, Mid-Atlantic Ridge

At slow-spreading ridges, plate separation is commonly partly accommodated by slip on long-lived detachment faults, exposing upper mantle and lower crustal rocks on the seafloor. However, the mechanics of this process, the subsurface structure, and the interaction of these faults remain largely unknown. We report the results of a network of 56 ocean-bottom seismographs (OBSs), deployed in 2016 at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 13°N, that provided dense spatial coverage of two adjacent detachment faults and the intervening ridge axis. Although both detachments exhibited high levels of seismicity, they are separated by an ∼8-km-wide aseismic zone, indicating that they are mechanically decoupled. A linear band of seismic activity, possibly indicating magmatism, crosscuts the 13°30′N domed detachment surface, confirming previous evidence for fault abandonment. Farther south, where the 2016 OBS network spatially overlapped with a similar survey done in 2014, significant changes in the patterns of seismicity between these surveys are observed. These changes suggest that oceanic detachments undergo previously unobserved cycles of stress accumulation and release as plate spreading is accommodated.</p

Fault-controlled hydration of the upper mantle during continental rifting

Water and carbon are transferred from the ocean to the mantle in a process that alters mantle peridotite to create serpentinite and supports diverse ecosystems1. Serpentinized mantle rocks are found beneath the sea floor at slow- to ultraslow-spreading mid-ocean ridges1 and are thought to be present at about half the world’s rifted margins2, 3. Serpentinite is also inferred to exist in the downgoing plate at subduction zones4, where it may trigger arc magmatism or hydrate the deep Earth. Water is thought to reach the mantle via active faults3, 4. Here we show that serpentinization at the rifted continental margin offshore from western Spain was probably initiated when the whole crust cooled to become brittle and deformation was focused along large normal faults. We use seismic tomography to image the three-dimensional distribution of serpentinization in the mantle and find that the local volume of serpentinite beneath thinned, brittle crust is related to the amount of displacement along each fault. This implies that sea water reaches the mantle only when the faults are active. We estimate the fluid flux along the faults and find it is comparable to that inferred for mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems. We conclude that brittle processes in the crust may ultimately control the global flux of sea water into the Earth

Geometry of extensional faults developed at slow-spreading centres from seismic reflection data in the Central Atlantic (Canary Basin)

We present depth images, from portions of profiles that are close to flow-lines, of Cretaceous oceanic crust in the eastern Central Atlantic. Compared with post-stack time migrations, the images illustrate the improvement resulting from the application of pre-stack depth migration. The images document the scale and geometry of normal faulting in oceanic crust formed over 25 Myr at a half-spreading rate of less than 10 mm yr−1, and the variation in extensional style with position within the spreading segment. Away from major fault zones (FZs), most faults are subplanar, dip more than 35°, are associated with moderate basement relief (0.2–1 km relief) and may penetrate to deep crustal levels. These faults could be related to the lifting of the lithosphere out of the median valley to the flanking mountains. Also observed away from FZs are gently dipping to subhorizontal reflections in the upper crust, which resemble detachment faults. In contrast, the inside corner crust is more rugged, with basement highs rising up to 2 km above the intervening basins. This larger-scale topography is associated with a different style of faulting: the depth images reveal gently dipping (<35°) faults that are rooted in the deep crust and that project to the ridgeward flank of the dome-shaped large basement highs (1–2 km vertical relief). The faults seem to continue as the ridge-facing flank of these highs and some may extend over the crest of the high to breakaways beyond. In this case, the domal highs that form the exhumed footwall to the faults can be described as oceanic core complexes. These controlling faults are up to 20 km long and have a heave of ∼10 km, sufficient to have accommodated up to 50 per cent extension and to have exhumed deep crustal and perhaps even mantle rocks. We suggest that similar faults can explain the structure and lithologies found at megamullion structures (oceanic core complexes) at inside corners near the present-day spreading ridge

Mechanisms of extension at nonvolcanic margins: Evidence from the Galicia interior basin, west of Iberia

We have studied a nonvolcanic margin, the West Iberia margin, to understand how the mechanisms of thinning evolve with increasing extension. We present a coincident prestack depth‐migrated seismic section and a wide‐angle profile across a Mesozoic abandoned rift, the Galicia Interior Basin (GIB). The data show that the basin is asymmetric, with major faults dipping to the east. The velocity structure at both basin flanks is different, suggesting that the basin formed along a Paleozoic terrain boundary. The ratios of upper to lower crustal thickness and tectonic structure are used to infer the mechanisms of extension. At the rift flanks (stretching factor, β ≤ 2) the ratio is fairly constant, indicating that stretching of upper and lower crust was uniform. Toward the center of the basin (β ∼ 3.5–5.5), fault‐block size decreases as the crust thins and faults reach progressively deeper crustal levels, indicating a switch from ductile to brittle behavior of the lower crust. At β ≥ 3.5, faults exhume lower crustal rocks to shallow levels, creating an excess of lower crust within their footwalls. We infer that initially, extension occurred by large‐scale uniform pure shear but as extension increased, it switched to simple shear along deep penetrating faults as most of the crust was brittle. The predominant brittle deformation might have driven small‐scale flow (≤40 km) of the deepest crust to accommodate fault offsets, resulting in a smooth Moho topography. The GIB might provide a type example of nonvolcanic rifting of cold and thin crust

Arc-continent collision: The making of an orogen

Peer Reviewe

From Continental Hyperextension to Seafloor Spreading: New Insights on the Porcupine Basin from Wide-angle Seismic Data

Key Points: - New analysis of wide-angle seismic data from the southern Porcupine Basin. - Evidence for presence of oceanic crust in the southern Porcupine Basin. - Jurassic rifting propagated from south to north, resulting in non-uniform strain when rifting stopped. The deep structure and sedimentary record of rift basins provide an important insight into understanding the geological processes involved in lithospheric extension. We investigate the crustal structure and large‐scale sedimentary architecture of the southern Porcupine Basin, offshore Ireland along three wide‐angle seismic profiles, supplemented by thirteen selected seismic reflection profiles. The seismic velocity and crustal geometry models obtained by joint refraction and reflection travel‐time inversion clearly image the deep structure of the basin. Our results suggest the presence of three distinct crustal domains along the rifting axis: (a) continental crust becoming progressively hyperextended from north to south through the basin, (b) a transitional zone of uncertain nature and (c) a 7‐8 km thick zone of oceanic crust. The latter is overlain by a ~ 8 km compacted Upper Paleozoic‐Mesozoic succession and ~ 2 km of Cenozoic strata. Due to the lack of clear magnetic anomalies and in the absence of well control, the precise age of interpreted oceanic crust is unknown. However, we can determine an age range of Late Jurassic to Late Cretaceous from the regional context. We propose a northward‐propagating rifting process in the Porcupine Basin, resulting in variations in strain along the rift axis

Continental hyperextension, mantle exhumation, and thin oceanic crust at the continent-ocean transition, West Iberia: New insights from wide-angle seismic

Hyperextension of continental crust at the Deep Galicia rifted margin in the North Atlantic has been accommodated by the rotation of continental fault blocks, which are underlain by the S reflector, an interpreted detachment fault, along which exhumed and serpentinized mantle peridotite is observed. West of these features, the enigmatic Peridotite Ridge has been inferred to delimit the western extent of the continent‐ocean transition. An outstanding question at this margin is where oceanic crust begins, with little existing data to constrain this boundary and a lack of clear seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies. Here we present results from a 160 km long wide‐angle seismic profile (Western Extension 1). Travel time tomography models of the crustal compressional velocity structure reveal highly thinned and rotated crustal blocks separated from the underlying mantle by the S reflector. The S reflector correlates with the 6.0–7.0 km s−1 velocity contours, corresponding to peridotite serpentinization of 60–30%, respectively. West of the Peridotite Ridge, shallow and sparse Moho reflections indicate the earliest formation of an anomalously thin oceanic crustal layer, which increases in thickness from ~0.5 km at ~20 km west of the Peridotite Ridge to ~1.5 km, 35 km further west. P wave velocities increase smoothly and rapidly below top basement, to a depth of 2.8–3.5 km, with an average velocity gradient of 1.0 s−1. Below this, velocities slowly increase toward typical mantle velocities. Such a downward increase into mantle velocities is interpreted as decreasing serpentinization of mantle rock with depth