The Anticorrelated Nature of the Primary and Secondary Eclipse Timing Variations for the Kepler Contact Binaries

We report on a study of eclipse timing variations in contact binary systems, using long-cadence lightcurves in the Kepler archive. As a first step, 'observed minus calculated' (O-C) curves were produced for both the primary and secondary eclipses of some 2000 Kepler binaries. We find ~390 short-period binaries with O-C curves that exhibit (i) random-walk like variations or quasi-periodicities, with typical amplitudes of +/- 200-300 seconds, and (ii) anticorrelations between the primary and secondary eclipse timing variations. We present a detailed analysis and results for 32 of these binaries with orbital periods in the range of 0.35 +/- 0.05 days. The anticorrelations observed in their O-C curves cannot be explained by a model involving mass transfer, which among other things requires implausibly high rates of ~0.01 M_sun per year. We show that the anticorrelated behavior, the amplitude of the O-C delays, and the overall random-walk like behavior can be explained by the presence of a starspot that is continuously visible around the orbit and slowly changes its longitude on timescales of weeks to months. The quasi-periods of ~50-200 days observed in the O-C curves suggest values for k, the coefficient of the latitude dependence of the stellar differential rotation, of ~0.003-0.013.Comment: Published in The Astrophysical Journal, 2013, Vol. 774, p.81; 14 pages, 12 figures, and 2 table

Role of the K1K_1 meson in K0K^0 photoproduction off the deuteron

Neutral kaon photoproduction off the nucleon and deuteron has been reinvestigated by utilizing the new experimental data on both targets. An isobar model for elementary operator and impulse approximation for the reaction on the deuteron have been used. The available free parameters in the elementary model have been extracted from both elementary and deuteron data. In contrast to the elementary reaction, fitting the deuteron data requires an inclusion of weighting factor. The result indicates that the angular distribution of the elementary $K^0\Lambda$ process does not show backward peaking behavior.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, prepared for the Fifth Asia-Pacific Conference on Few-Body Problems in Physics 2011 (APFB2011), Seoul, Korea, August 22-26, 201

Euclidean-signature Supergravities, Dualities and Instantons

We study the Euclidean-signature supergravities that arise by compactifying D=11 supergravity or type IIB supergravity on a torus that includes the time direction. We show that the usual T-duality relation between type IIA and type IIB supergravities compactified on a spatial circle no longer holds if the reduction is performed on the time direction. Thus there are two inequivalent Euclidean-signature nine-dimensional maximal supergravities. They become equivalent upon further spatial compactification to D=8. We also show that duality symmetries of Euclidean-signature supergravities allow the harmonic functions of any single-charge or multi-charge instanton to be rescaled and shifted by constant factors. Combined with the usual diagonal dimensional reduction and oxidation procedures, this allows us to use the duality symmetries to map any single-charge or multi-charge p-brane soliton, or any intersection, into its near-horizon regime. Similar transformations can also be made on non-extremal p-branes. We also study the structures of duality multiplets of instanton and (D-3)-brane solutions.Comment: Latex, 50 pages, typos corrected and references adde

DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach

The Outstanding Decisions of the United States Supreme Court in 1954

We perform a kinematic and morphological analysis of 44 star-forming galaxies at z ̃ 2 in the COSMOS legacy field using near-infrared spectroscopy from Keck/MOSFIRE and F160W imaging from CANDELS/3D-HST as part of the ZFIRE survey. Our sample consists of cluster and field galaxies from 2.0 < z < 2.5 with K-band multi-object slit spectroscopic measurements of their Hα emission lines. Hα rotational velocities and gas velocity dispersions are measured using the Heidelberg Emission Line Algorithm (HELA), which compares directly to simulated 3D data cubes. Using a suite of simulated emission lines, we determine that HELA reliably recovers input S 0.5 and angular momentum at small offsets, but V 2.2/σ g values are offset and highly scattered. We examine the role of regular and irregular morphology in the stellar mass kinematic scaling relations, deriving the kinematic measurement S 0.5, and finding {log}({S}0.5)=(0.38+/- 0.07){log}(M/{M}☉ -10)+(2.04+/- 0.03) with no significant offset between morphological populations and similar levels of scatter (̃0.16 dex). Additionally, we identify a correlation between M ⋆ and V 2.2/σ g for the total sample, showing an increasing level of rotation dominance with increasing M ⋆, and a high level of scatter for both regular and irregular galaxies. We estimate the specific angular momenta (j disk) of these galaxies and find a slope of 0.36 ± 0.12, shallower than predicted without mass-dependent disk growth, but this result is possibly due to measurement uncertainty at M ⋆ < 9.5 However, through a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test we find irregular galaxies to have marginally higher j disk values than regular galaxies, and high scatter at low masses in both populations

Protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial: cost-effectiveness of Learning Clubs, a multicomponent intervention to improve women’s health and infant’s health and development in Vietnam

Introduction: Economic evaluations of complex interventions in early child development are required to guide policy and programme development, but a few are yet available. Methods and analysis: Although significant gains have been made in maternal and child health in resource- constrained environments, this has mainly been concentrated on improving physical health. The Learning Clubs programme addresses both physical and mental child and maternal health. This study is an economic evaluation of a cluster randomised controlled trial of the impact of the Learning Clubs programme in Vietnam. It will be conducted from a societal perspective and aims to identify the cost-effectiveness and the economic and social returns of the intervention. A total of 1008 pregnant women recruited from 84 communes in a rural province in Vietnam will be included in the evaluation. Health and cost data will be gathered at three stages of the trial and used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per percentage point improvement of infant’s development, infant’s health and maternal common mental disorders expressed in quality-adjusted life years gained. The return on investment will be calculated based on improvements in productivity, the results being expressed as benefit–cost ratios. Ethics and dissemination: The trial was approved by Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee (Certificate Number 2016–0683), Australia, and approval was extended to include the economic evaluation (Amendment Review Number 2018-0683-23806); and the Institutional Review Board of the Hanoi School of Public Health (Certificate Number 017-377IDD- YTCC), Vietnam. Results will be disseminated through academic journals and conference presentations

Moderate influenza vaccine effectiveness in Victoria, Australia, 2011

We used a sentinel general practitioner (GP) network to conduct surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza amongst patients presenting with influenza-like illness (ILI) in Victoria, Australia in 2011. The test-negative variation of the case control study design was used to estimate effectiveness for seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine. Cases and controls were ILI patients that tested positive and negative for influenza, respectively. Vaccination status was recorded by GPs and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1-adjusted odds ratio)x100%. There were 529 patients included in the study, of which 29% were influenza-positive. Twelve percent of study participants were reported as vaccinated, 6% of cases and 15% of controls. Adjusted VE against all influenza was 56%, but not statistically significant. There was generally little variation in VE estimates when stratified by virus type and subtype, which is consistent with good matches between circulating strains and the vaccine strains. The VE was higher among adults of working age than among children

Pneumatic drying of cassava starch: Numerical analysis and guidelines for the design of efficient small-scale dryers

In a number of tropical countries, the expansion of cassava processing is tied to the development of small-scale, energy-efficient pneumatic dryers used to dry flour and starch. To facilitate this development, in this study a model of the pneumatic drying of starch particles was developed, to be fitted to measurements taken from large cassava processing factories. After that, numerical simulations were performed to analyze the effects of geometry and operating conditions on the energy efficiency and pipe length required to dry the product. The results clarified the influence of processing capacity, air inlet conditions, and starch particle size, emphasizing that air velocity as well as the dilution of the starch should be minimized. In light of the findings described here, we offer guidelines for the design of efficient small-capacity flash dryers