On model differences and skill in predicting sea surface temperature in the Nordic and Barents Seas

The Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea is the Atlantic Ocean’s gateway to the Arctic Ocean, and the Gulf Stream’s northern extension brings large amounts of heat into this region and modulates climate in northwestern Europe. We have investigated the predictive skill of initialized hindcast simulations performed with three state-of-the-art climate prediction models within the CMIP5-framework, focusing on sea surface temperature (SST) in the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea, but also on sea ice extent, and the subpolar North Atlantic upstream. The hindcasts are compared with observation-based SST for the period 1961–2010. All models have significant predictive skill in specific regions at certain lead times. However, among the three models there is little consistency concerning which regions that display predictive skill and at what lead times. For instance, in the eastern Nordic Seas, only one model has significant skill in predicting observed SST variability at longer lead times (7–10 years). This region is of particular promise in terms of predictability, as observed thermohaline anomalies progress from the subpolar North Atlantic to the Fram Strait within the time frame of a couple of years. In the same model, predictive skill appears to move northward along a similar route as forecast time progresses. We attribute this to the northward advection of SST anomalies, contributing to skill at longer lead times in the eastern Nordic Seas. The skill at these lead times in particular beats that of persistence forecast, again indicating the potential role of ocean circulation as a source for skill. Furthermore, we discuss possible explanations for the difference in skill among models, such as different model resolutions, initialization techniques, and model climatologies and variance. © 2016 The Author(s

PENGGUNAAN MODEL PEMBELAJARAN INKUIRI TERBIMBING UNTUK MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR PESERTA DIDIK

Penelitian ini dilatar belakangi oleh rendahnya sikap rasa ingin tahu dan hasil belajar peserta didik pada Subtema Makananku Sehat dan Bergizi yang pencapaiannya hanya 35% peserta didik yang tuntas memenuhi nilai KKM. Selain itu pendidik masih menggunakan metode atau model pembelajaran yang bersifat teacher centered, yaitu model ceramah.Pelaksanaan yang dilakukan peneiti yaitu dua siklus dan setiap siklus terdiri dari 3 pembelajaran.Model Pembelajaran yang digunakan peneliti yaitu inkuiri terbimbing, pengertian dari inkuiri terbimbing merupakan model pembelajaran yang memberikan kesempatan kepada peserta didik untuk aktif terlibat dalam proses pembelajaran dengan melakukan penyelidikan dan pemecahan masalah secara mandiri namum tetap dengan bimbingan pendidik agar peserta didik lebih mudah dalam memahami konsep pelajaran. Subjek penelitian ini adalah siswakelas IV D SDN Leuwipanjang dengan jumlah peserta didik sebanyak 35 orang. Instrument pembelajaran yang digunakan adalah berupa tes, lembar observasi (observasi pendidik dan observasi peserta didik), LKPD (Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik) dan lembar angket. Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan model pembelajaran inkuiri terbimbing ditunjukan dengan perencanaan setiap siklusnya yang mengalami perbaikan berdasarkan hasil refleksi di siklus sebelumnya. Pelaksanaan pembelajaran dengan menggunakan model pembelajaran inkuiri terbimbing dapat dilihat dari aktivitas pendidik dan peserta didik pada setiap siklusnya yang mengalami peningkatan. Pencapaian hasil belajar afektif mencapai 44% pada siklus II mencapai 80% dan kognitif peserta didik pada siklus I mencapai rata-rata 35% Siklus II ketuntasan 80%. Adapun hasil belajar psikomotor peserta didik di siklus I mencapai ketuntasan 36%. Siklus II mencapai mencapai ketuntasan 88%. Ambatan yang dilami oleh peneiti yaitu alokasi waktu dan pengelolaan kelas, Upaya yang dilakukan peneliti adalah mengatur pelaksannaan pembelajaran sesuai dengan rencana yang kita persiapkan dengan baik dan mengatur suasana kelas dengan menyenangkan yaitu membuat media pembelajaran yang baik sehingga daapat menarik minat belajar peserta didik. Kata Kunci : Inkuiri Terbimbing, rasa ingin tahu, hasil belajar peserta didik, hambatan pelaksanaan, upaya peningkata

Observed change and the extent of coherence in the Gulf Stream system

By transporting warm and salty water poleward, the Gulf Stream system maintains a mild climate in northwestern Europe while also facilitating the dense water formation that feeds the deep ocean. The sensitivity of North Atlantic circulation to future greenhouse gas emissions seen in climate models has prompted an increasing effort to monitor the various ocean circulation components in recent decades. Here, we synthesize available ocean transport measurements from several observational programs in the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, as well as an ocean state estimate (ECCOv4-r4), for an enhanced understanding of the Gulf Stream and its poleward extensions as an interconnected circulation system. We see limited coherent variability between the records on interannual timescales, highlighting the local oceanic response to atmospheric circulation patterns and variable recirculation timescales within the gyres. On decadal timescales, we find a weakening subtropical circulation between the mid-2000s and mid-2010s, while the inflow and circulation in the Nordic Seas remained stable. Differing decadal trends in the subtropics, subpolar North Atlantic, and Nordic Seas warrant caution in using observational records at a single latitude to infer large-scale circulation change.</p

Seasonal and Regional Manifestation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss

The Arctic Ocean is currently on a fast track toward seasonally ice-free conditions. Although most attention has been on the accelerating summer sea ice decline, large changes are also occurring in winter. This study assesses past, present, and possible future change in regional Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent throughout the year by examining sea ice concentration based on observations back to 1950, including the satellite record since 1979. At present, summer sea ice variability and change dominate in the perennial ice-covered Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev, and Kara Seas, with the East Siberian Sea explaining the largest fraction of September ice loss (22%). Winter variability and change occur in the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south: the Barents Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Greenland Sea, and Baffin Bay, with the Barents Sea carrying the largest fraction of loss in March (27%). The distinct regions of summer and winter sea ice variability and loss have generally been consistent since 1950, but appear at present to be in transformation as a result of the rapid ice loss in all seasons. As regions become seasonally ice free, future ice loss will be dominated by winter. The Kara Sea appears as the first currently perennial ice-covered sea to become ice free in September. Remaining on currently observed trends, the Arctic shelf seas are estimated to become seasonally ice free in the 2020s, and the seasonally ice-covered seas farther south to become ice free year-round from the 2050s

Randomised controlled trial of improvisational music therapy's effectiveness for children with autism spectrum disorders (TIME-A): study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous research has suggested that music therapy may facilitate skills in areas typically affected by autism spectrum disorders such as social interaction and communication. However, generalisability of previous findings has been restricted, as studies were limited in either methodological accuracy or the clinical relevance of their approach. The aim of this study is to determine effects of improvisational music therapy on social communication skills of children with autism spectrum disorders. An additional aim of the study is to examine if variation in dose of treatment (i.e., number of music therapy sessions per week) affects outcome of therapy, and to determine cost-effectiveness.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Children aged between 4;0 and 6;11 years who are diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder will be randomly assigned to one of three conditions. Parents of all participants will receive three sessions of parent counselling (at 0, 2, and 5 months). In addition, children randomised to the two intervention groups will be offered individual, improvisational music therapy over a period of five months, either one session (low-intensity) or three sessions (high-intensity) per week. Generalised effects of music therapy will be measured using standardised scales completed by blinded assessors (Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule, ADOS) and parents (Social Responsiveness Scale, SRS) before and 2, 5, and 12 months after randomisation. Cost effectiveness will be calculated as man years. A group sequential design with first interim look at N = 235 will ensure both power and efficiency.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Responding to the need for more rigorously designed trials examining the effectiveness of music therapy in autism spectrum disorders, this pragmatic trial sets out to generate findings that will be well generalisable to clinical practice. Addressing the issue of dose variation, this study's results will also provide information on the relevance of session frequency for therapy outcome.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN78923965">ISRCTN78923965</a>.</p

The role of salinity in the decadal variability of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 33 (2009): 777-793, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0523-2.An OGCM hindcast is used to investigate the linkages between North Atlantic Ocean salinity and circulation changes during 1963–2003. The focus is on the eastern subpolar region consisting of the Irminger Sea and the eastern North Atlantic where a careful assessment shows that the simulated interannual to decadal salinity changes in the upper 1500 m reproduce well those derived from the available record of hydrographic measurements. In the model, the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is primarily driven by changes in deep water formation taking place in the Irminger Sea and, to a lesser extent, the Labrador Sea. Both are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The modeled interannual to decadal salinity changes in the subpolar basins are mostly controlled by circulation-driven anomalies of freshwater flux convergence, although surface salinity restoring to climatology and other boundary fluxes each account for approximately 25% of the variance. The NAO plays an important role: a positive NAO phase is associated with increased precipitation, reduced northward salt transport by the wind-driven intergyre gyre, and increased southward flows of freshwater across the Greenland-Scotland ridge. Since the NAO largely controlled deep convection in the subpolar gyre, fresher waters are found near the sinking region during convective events. This markedly differs from the active influence on the MOC that salinity exerts at decadal and longer timescales in most coupled models. The intensification of the MOC that follows a positive NAO phase by about 2 years does not lead to an increase in the northward salt transport into the subpolar domain at low frequencies because it is cancelled by the concomitant intensification of the subpolar gyre which shifts the subpolar front eastward and reduces the northward salt transport by the North Atlantic Current waters. This differs again from most coupled models, where the gyre intensification precedes that of the MOC by several years.Support from NSF Grant 82677800 with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and (to CF) from the Institut universitaire de France and European FP6 project DYNAMITE (contract 003903-GOCE) and (to JD) from the NOAA Office of Hydrologic Development through a scientific appointment administered by UCAR is gratefully acknowledged

A Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium (PACE) meta-analysis highlights potential relationships between birth order and neonatal blood DNA methylation

Higher birth order is associated with altered risk of many disease states. Changes in placentation and exposures to in utero growth factors with successive pregnancies may impact later life disease risk via persistent DNA methylation alterations. We investigated birth order with Illumina DNA methylation array data in each of 16 birth cohorts (8164 newborns) with European, African, and Latino ancestries from the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium. Meta-analyzed data demonstrated systematic DNA methylation variation in 341 CpGs (FDR adjusted P &lt; 0.05) and 1107 regions. Forty CpGs were located within known quantitative trait loci for gene expression traits in blood, and trait enrichment analysis suggested a strong association with immune-related, transcriptional control, and blood pressure regulation phenotypes. Decreasing fertility rates worldwide with the concomitant increased proportion of first-born children highlights a potential reflection of birth order-related epigenomic states on changing disease incidence trends.</p

A Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium (PACE) meta-analysis highlights potential relationships between birth order and neonatal blood DNA methylation

Higher birth order is associated with altered risk of many disease states. Changes in placentation and exposures to in utero growth factors with successive pregnancies may impact later life disease risk via persistent DNA methylation alterations. We investigated birth order with Illumina DNA methylation array data in each of 16 birth cohorts (8164 newborns) with European, African, and Latino ancestries from the Pregnancy and Childhood Epigenetics Consortium. Meta-analyzed data demonstrated systematic DNA methylation variation in 341 CpGs (FDR adjusted P &lt; 0.05) and 1107 regions. Forty CpGs were located within known quantitative trait loci for gene expression traits in blood, and trait enrichment analysis suggested a strong association with immune-related, transcriptional control, and blood pressure regulation phenotypes. Decreasing fertility rates worldwide with the concomitant increased proportion of first-born children highlights a potential reflection of birth order-related epigenomic states on changing disease incidence trends.</p

Behavioural and Developmental Interventions for Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Clinical Systematic Review

Background: Much controversy exists regarding the clinical efficacy of behavioural and developmental interventions for improving the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence on the effectiveness of behavioural and developmental interventions for ASD. Methods and Findings: Comprehensive searches were conducted in 22 electronic databases through May 2007. Further information was obtained through hand searching journals, searching reference lists, databases of theses and dissertations, and contacting experts in the field. Experimental and observational analytic studies were included if they were written in English and reported the efficacy of any behavioural or developmental intervention for individuals with ASD. Two independent reviewers made the final study selection, extracted data, and reached consensus on study quality. Results were summarized descriptively and, where possible, meta-analyses of the study results were conducted. One-hundred-and-one studies at predominantly high risk of bias that reported inconsistent results across various interventions were included in the review. Meta-analyses of three controlled clinical trials showed that Lovaas treatment was superior to special education on measures of adaptive behaviour, communication and interaction, comprehensive language, daily living skills, expressive language, overall intellectual functioning and socialization. High-intensity Lovaas was superior to low-intensity Lovaas on measures of intellectual functioning in two retrospective cohort studies. Pooling the results of two randomized controlle

Endocrinologic, neurologic, and visual morbidity after treatment for craniopharyngioma

Craniopharyngiomas are locally aggressive tumors which typically are focused in the sellar and suprasellar region near a number of critical neural and vascular structures mediating endocrinologic, behavioral, and visual functions. The present study aims to summarize and compare the published literature regarding morbidity resulting from treatment of craniopharyngioma. We performed a comprehensive search of the published English language literature to identify studies publishing outcome data of patients undergoing surgery for craniopharyngioma. Comparisons of the rates of endocrine, vascular, neurological, and visual complications were performed using Pearson’s chi-squared test, and covariates of interest were fitted into a multivariate logistic regression model. In our data set, 540 patients underwent surgical resection of their tumor. 138 patients received biopsy alone followed by some form of radiotherapy. Mean overall follow-up for all patients in these studies was 54 ± 1.8 months. The overall rate of new endocrinopathy for all patients undergoing surgical resection of their mass was 37% (95% CI = 33–41). Patients receiving GTR had over 2.5 times the rate of developing at least one endocrinopathy compared to patients receiving STR alone or STR + XRT (52 vs. 19 vs. 20%, χ2P < 0.00001). On multivariate analysis, GTR conferred a significant increase in the risk of endocrinopathy compared to STR + XRT (OR = 3.45, 95% CI = 2.05–5.81, P < 0.00001), after controlling for study size and the presence of significant hypothalamic involvement. There was a statistical trend towards worse visual outcomes in patients receiving XRT after STR compared to GTR or STR alone (GTR = 3.5% vs. STR 2.1% vs. STR + XRT 6.4%, P = 0.11). Given the difficulty in obtaining class 1 data regarding the treatment of this tumor, this study can serve as an estimate of expected outcomes for these patients, and guide decision making until these data are available