Parametric uncertainty in complex environmental models: a cheap emulation approach for models with high-dimensional output

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical processes, and predict future outcomes, a complex computer model is frequently required to simulate these dynamics. However there is inevitably uncertainty related to the exact parametric form or the values of such parameters to be used when developing these simulators, with \emph{ranges} of plausible values prevalent in the literature. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. Due to the complexity of these types of models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that are usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a method for accounting for uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs and illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We conclude that there are two principle parameters that are linked with variability in NAME outputs, namely the free tropospheric turbulence parameter and particle release height. Our results suggest the former should be significantly larger than is currently implemented as a default in NAME, whilst changes in the latter most likely stem from inconsistencies between the model specified ground height at the observation locations and the true height at this location. Estimated discrepancies from independent data are consistent with the discrepancy between modelled and true ground height

Measurements of Direct CP Violation, CPT Symmetry, and Other Parameters in the Neutral Kaon System

We present a series of measurements based on K -> pi+pi- and K -> pi0pi0 decays collected in 1996-1997 by the KTeV experiment (E832) at Fermilab. We compare these four K -> pipi decay rates to measure the direct CP violation parameter Re(e'/e) = (20.7 +- 2.8) x 10^-4. We also test CPT symmetry by measuring the relative phase between the CP violating and CP conserving decay amplitudes for K->pi+pi- (phi+-) and for K -> pi0pi0 (phi00). We find the difference between the relative phases to be Delta-phi = phi00 - phi+- = (+0.39 +- 0.50) degrees and the deviation of phi+- from the superweak phase to be phi+- - phi_SW =(+0.61 +- 1.19) degrees; both results are consistent with CPT symmetry. In addition, we present new measurements of the KL-KS mass difference and KS lifetime: Delta-m = (5261 +- 15) x 10^6 hbar/s and tauS = (89.65 +- 0.07) x 10^-12 s.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. D, August 6, 2002; 37 pages, 32 figure

First Observation and Measurement of the Decay K+- -> pi+- e+ e- gamma

Using the full data set of the NA48/2 experiment, the decay K+- -> pi+- e+ e- gamma is observed for the first time, selecting 120 candidates with 7.3 +- 1.7 estimated background events. With K+- -> pi+- pi0D as normalisation channel, the branching ratio is determined in a model-independent way to be Br(K+- -> pi+- e+ e- gamma, m_eegamma > 260 MeV/c^2) = (1.19 +- 0.12_stat +- 0.04_syst) x 10^-8. This measured value and the spectrum of the e+ e- gamma invariant mass allow a comparison with predictions of Chiral Perturbation Theory.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys.Lett.

Empirical parameterization of the K+- -> pi+- pi0 pi0 decay Dalitz plot

As first observed by the NA48/2 experiment at the CERN SPS, the \p0p0 invariant mass (M00) distribution from \kcnn decay shows a cusp-like anomaly at M00=2m+, where m+ is the charged pion mass. An analysis to extract the pi pi scattering lengths in the isospin I=0 and I=2 states, a0 and a2, respectively, has been recently reported. In the present work the Dalitz plot of this decay is fitted to a new empirical parameterization suitable for practical purposes, such as Monte Carlo simulations of K+- -> pi+- pi0 pi0 decays.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures

Search for direct CP-violation in K+- --> pi+-pi0pi0 decays

A search for direct CP-violation in K+- --> pi+-pi0pi0 decays based on 47.14 million events has been performed by the NA48/2 experiment at the CERN SPS. The asymmetry in the Dalitz plot linear slopes A_g=(g^+ - g^-)/(g^+ + g^-) is measured to be A_g=(1.8 +- 2.6).10^{-4}. The design of the experiment and the method of analysis provide good control of instrumental charge asymmetries in this measurement. The precision of the result is limited by statistics and is almost one order of magnitude better than that of previous measurements by other experiments.Comment: 14 page

Measurement of the Dalitz plot slope parameters of the K±→π±π+π−K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^- decay

The distribution of the $K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^-$ decays in the Dalitz plot has been measured by the NA48/2 experiment at the CERN SPS with a sample of $4.71\times 10^8$ fully reconstructed events. With the standard Particle Data Group parameterization the following values of the slope parameters were obtained: $g=(-21.134\pm0.017)\%$, $h=(1.848\pm0.040)\%$, $k=(-0.463\pm0.014)\%$. The quality and statistical accuracy of the data have allowed an improvement in precision by more than an order of magnitude, and are such as to warrant a more elaborate theoretical treatment, including pion-pion rescattering, which is in preparation.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures. Version submitted to Phys. Lett. B. Slightly improved analysis and bibliography

Search for direct CP violation in the decays K\pm \to 3\pi\pm

We report a measurement of the direct CP violation asymmetry parameter $A_g$ in charged kaon decays $K^\pm\to\pi^\pm\pi^+\pi^-$ by the NA48/2 experiment at the CERN SPS. The experiment has been designed not to be limited by systematics in the asymmetry measurement. Using $1.67\times 10^9$ such decays collected during the 2003 run, the charge asymmetry in the Dalitz plot linear slope parameter $g$ has been measured to be $A_g=(1.7\pm2.9)\times 10^{-4}$. The precision of the result is limited by the statistics used.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Study of the lineshape of the chi(c1) (3872) state

A study of the lineshape of the chi(c1) (3872) state is made using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb(-1) collected in pp collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV with the LHCb detector. Candidate chi(c1)(3872) and psi(2S) mesons from b-hadron decays are selected in the J/psi pi(+)pi(-) decay mode. Describing the lineshape with a Breit-Wigner function, the mass splitting between the chi(c1 )(3872) and psi(2S) states, Delta m, and the width of the chi(c1 )(3872) state, Gamma(Bw), are determined to be (Delta m=185.598 +/- 0.067 +/- 0.068 Mev,)(Gamma BW=1.39 +/- 0.24 +/- 0.10 Mev,) where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. Using a Flatte-inspired model, the mode and full width at half maximum of the lineshape are determined to be (mode=3871.69+0.00+0.05 MeV.)(FWHM=0.22-0.04+0.13+0.07+0.11-0.06-0.13 MeV, ) An investigation of the analytic structure of the Flatte amplitude reveals a pole structure, which is compatible with a quasibound D-0(D) over bar*(0) state but a quasivirtual state is still allowed at the level of 2 standard deviations