Rock avalanches in high mountains

A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of the University of LutonRock avalanches are a high magnitude, low frequency catastrophic mass movement involving the failure of over 1 x 106 m3 of mountainside. Rock avalanches are considered a major hazard of the high mountains due to the excessive run-out often associated with them. To date the mechanism that allows for such excessive travel distance is unproven although several dozen possibilities have been proposed. Rock-avalanche deposits exhibit characteristic features such as sharp lateral margins, confinement to local topography, super-elevation on valley sides, intensely fragmented interiors and preserved stratigraphy relative to the source. However, there are few detailed studies of the internal sedimentology of rock-avalanche deposits. Such studies are a vital piece of evidence in the search for the mechanisms of motion as rock avalanches are rarely witnessed. This thesis examines the detailed sedimentology of five rock avalanche deposits of varied lithology and morphology. A novel methodology is developed to sample deposits for their grainsize distributions (GSD). The GSD's prove similar for deposits, with significant variation due to preserved lithological banding in the interior. This finding refutes the commonly held view that rock-avalanche deposits are simply inversely graded. Instead, a facies model is developed of a coarse Carapace facies forming the surface and near surface that overlies a highly fragmented Body facies that is in turn underlain by the Basal facies that is free to interact with the substrate. The sedimentology of the Body facies is considered in fine detail and is shown to be fractal in nature, that is, self-similar at all scales of observation. A predictive sedimentological plot is presented that allows generation of the grain-size distribution and descriptive statistics from a simple estimation of weight percent gravel at a rock avalanche exposure. The morphology of rock-avalanche deposits are examined and a classification presented of 'spread' 'two-phase' and 'stalled'. The hazard and features of each morphology is described in relation to the observed deposits

Assessing the continuity of the blue ice climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica

We use high resolution Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) to assess the continuity of the Blue Ice Area (BIA) horizontal climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica. The sequence contains three pronounced changes in deuterium isotopic values at ~18 cal ka, ~12 cal ka and ~8 cal ka. GPR surveys along the climate sequence reveal continuous, conformable dipping isochrones, separated by two unconformities in the isochrone layers, which correlate with the two older deuterium shifts. We interpret these incursions as discontinuities in the sequence, rather than direct measures of climate change. Ice-sheet models and Internal Layer Continuity Index plots suggest that the unconformities represent periods of erosion occurring as the former ice surface was scoured by katabatic winds in front of mountains at the head of Horseshoe Valley. This study demonstrates the importance of high resolution GPR surveys for investigating both paleo-flow dynamics and interpreting BIA climate records

Interannual surface evolution of an Antarctic blue-ice moraine using multi-temporal DEMs

Multi-temporal and fine resolution topographic data products are increasingly used to quantify surface elevation change in glacial environments. In this study, we employ 3D digital elevation model (DEM) differencing to quantify the topographic evolution of a blue-ice moraine complex in front of Patriot Hills, Heritage Range, Antarctica. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) was used to acquire multiple topographic datasets of the moraine surface at the beginning and end of the austral summer season in 2012/2013 and during a resurvey field campaign in 2014. A complementary topographic dataset was acquired at the end of season 1 through the application of Structure-from-Motion with multi-view stereo (SfM-MVS) photogrammetry to a set of aerial photographs acquired from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV).Three-dimensional cloud-to-cloud differencing was undertaken using the Multiscale Model to Model Cloud Comparison (M3C2) algorithm. DEM differencing revealed net uplift and lateral movement of the moraine crests within season 1 (mean uplift ~0.10 m), and surface lowering of a similar magnitude in some inter-moraine depressions and close to the current ice margin, although we are unable to validate the latter. Our results indicate net uplift across the site between seasons 1 and 2 (mean 0.07 m). This research demonstrates that it is possible to detect dynamic surface topographical change across glacial moraines over short (annual to intra-annual) timescales through the acquisition and differencing of fine-resolution topographic datasets. Such data offer new opportunities to understand the process linkages between surface ablation, ice flow, and debris supply within moraine ice

Sedimentological characterization of Antarctic moraines using UAVs and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry

In glacial environments particle-size analysis of moraines provides insights into clast origin, transport history, depositional mechanism and processes of reworking. Traditional methods for grain-size classification are labour-intensive, physically intrusive and are limited to patch-scale (1m2) observation. We develop emerging, high-resolution ground- and unmanned aerial vehicle-based ‘Structure-from-Motion’ (UAV-SfM) photogrammetry to recover grain-size information across an moraine surface in the Heritage Range, Antarctica. SfM data products were benchmarked against equivalent datasets acquired using terrestrial laser scanning, and were found to be accurate to within 1.7 and 50mm for patch- and site-scale modelling, respectively. Grain-size distributions were obtained through digital grain classification, or ‘photo-sieving’, of patch-scale SfM orthoimagery. Photo-sieved distributions were accurate to <2mm compared to control distributions derived from dry sieving. A relationship between patch-scale median grain size and the standard deviation of local surface elevations was applied to a site-scale UAV-SfM model to facilitate upscaling and the production of a spatially continuous map of the median grain size across a 0.3 km2 area of moraine. This highly automated workflow for site scale sedimentological characterization eliminates much of the subjectivity associated with traditional methods and forms a sound basis for subsequent glaciological process interpretation and analysis

Corrigendum to “The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica” [Earth and Planetary Science Letters 469 (2017) 42–52]

No abstract available

Statistical primer: sample size and power calculations-why, when and how?

When designing a clinical study, a fundamental aspect is the sample size. In this article, we describe the rationale for sample size calculations, when it should be calculated and describe the components necessary to calculate it. For simple studies, standard formulae can be used; however, for more advanced studies, it is generally necessary to use specialized statistical software programs and consult a biostatistician. Sample size calculations for non-randomized studies are also discussed and two clinical examples are used for illustration

Patterns of precursory rockfall prior to slope failure

In this paper we examine data generated using high-resolution three-dimensional laser scanning monitoring of coastal rock cliffs. These data are used to identify spatial and temporal patterns in rockfall activity behavior prior to slope failure. Analysis of the data suggests that given sufficient measurement precision precursory behavior, here manifest as the rate of rockfall activity prior to failure, can be detected, measured, and monitored. Environmental conditions appear to have a diminishing influence on the occurrence of increasingly large slope failures. The monitoring data implies a time-dependent sequence in the occurrence of smaller rockfalls in the period leading to the largest failures recorded. This behavior is attributed to the mechanisms of strain accumulation in the rock mass resulting from brittle failure of the slope. The implication is that combining these data with models of failure mechanisms may allow failure time to be forecast from wide-area monitoring of precursory behavior. These findings have implications for the management of potentially unstable slopes, the understanding of slope failure mechanisms, and the generation of a new type of slope failure warning systems

Forest floor temperature and greenness link significantly to canopy attributes in South Africa’s fragmented coastal forests

Tropical landscapes are changing rapidly due to changes in land use and land management. Being able to predict and monitor land use change impacts on species for conservation or food security concerns requires the use of habitat quality metrics, that are consistent, can be mapped using above-ground sensor data and are relevant for species performance. Here, we focus on ground surface temperature (Thermalground) and ground vegetation greenness (NDVIdown) as potentially suitable metrics of habitat quality. Both have been linked to species demography and community structure in the literature. We test whether they can be measured consistently from the ground and whether they can be up-scaled indirectly using canopy structure maps (Leaf Area Index, LAI, and Fractional vegetation cover, FCover) developed from Landsat remote sensing data. We measured Thermalground and NDVIdown across habitats differing in tree cover (natural grassland to forest edges to forests and tree plantations) in the human-modified coastal forested landscapes of Kwa-Zulua Natal, South Africa. We show that both metrics decline significantly with increasing canopy closure and leaf area, implying a potential pathway for upscaling both metrics using canopy structure maps derived using earth observation. Specifically, our findings suggest that opening forest canopies by 20% or decreasing forest canopy LAI by one unit would result in increases of Thermalground by 1.2 °C across the range of observations studied. NDVIdown appears to decline by 0.1 in response to an increase in canopy LAI by 1 unit and declines nonlinearly with canopy closure. Accounting for micro-scale variation in temperature and resources is seen as essential to improve biodiversity impact predictions. Our study suggests that mapping ground surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness utilising remotely sensed canopy cover maps could provide a useful tool for mapping habitat quality metrics that matter to species. However, this approach will be constrained by the predictive capacity of models used to map field-derived forest canopy attributes. Furthermore, sampling efforts are needed to capture spatial and temporal variation in Thermalground within and across days and seasons to validate the transferability of our findings. Finally, whilst our approach shows that surface temperature and ground vegetation greenness might be suitable habitat quality metric used in biodiversity monitoring, the next step requires that we map demographic traits of species of different threat status onto maps of these metrics in landscapes differing in disturbance and management histories. The derived understanding could then be exploited for targeted landscape restoration that benefits biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale