Effects of precipitation uncertainty on discharge calculations for main river basins

This study quantifies the uncertainty in discharge calculations caused by uncertainty in precipitation input for 294 river basins worldwide. Seven global gridded precipitation datasets are compared at river basin scale in terms of mean annual and seasonal precipitation. The representation of seasonality is similar in all datasets, but the uncertainty in mean annual precipitation is large, especially in mountainous, arctic, and small basins. The average precipitation uncertainty in a basin is 30%, but there are strong differences between basins. The effect of this precipitation uncertainty on mean annual and seasonal discharge was assessed using the uncalibrated dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed land (LPJmL), yielding even larger uncertainties in discharge (average 90%). For 95 basins (out of 213 basins for which measurements were available) calibration of model parameters is problematic because the observed discharge falls within the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. A method is presented to account for precipitation uncertainty in discharge simulations

Does tenure matter for occupant experiences of low-energy housing?

International policy settings are looking toward low-energy and near zero-energy homes as a solution to address environmental impacts, particularly anthropogenic climate change. There is increasing research evaluating sus-tainable housing developments from a technical and occupant perspective. One of the key determinants of household energy use is tenure. However, there is limited research which has looked at if tenure impacts on how oc-cupants experience low-energy homes. This paper contributes to the litera-ture by exploring three low-energy housing developments and exploring the role of tenure in relation to how the households experience the dwellings. The case studies demonstrate that social housing tenants have frustrations with a lack of control over what they could, or could not, do to their low-energy dwellings, in comparison to owner-occupier housing

Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study

Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near-surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment

A comprehensive view on climate change: coupling of Earth system and integrated assessment models

There are several reasons to strengthen the cooperation between the integrated assessment (IA) and earth system (ES) modeling teams in order to better understand the joint development of environmental and human systems. This cooperation can take many different forms, ranging from information exchange between research communities to fully coupled modeling approaches. Here, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches and try to establish some guidelines for their applicability, based mainly on the type of interaction between the model components (including the role of feedback), possibilities for simplification and the importance of uncertainty. We also discuss several important areas of joint IA–ES research, such as land use/land cover dynamics and the interaction between climate change and air pollution, and indicate the type of collaboration that seems to be most appropriate in each case. We find that full coupling of IA–ES models might not always be the most desirable form of cooperation, since in some cases the direct feedbacks between IA and ES may be too weak or subject to considerable process or scenario uncertainty. However, when local processes are important, it could be important to consider full integration. By encouraging cooperation between the IA and ES communities in the future more consistent insights can be developed

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more.</p> <p>Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO₂concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO₂concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO₂emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO₂. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO₂concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.</p

Exercise capacity in children with isolated congenital complete atrioventricular block: does pacing make a difference?

Item does not contain fulltextThe management of patients with isolated congenital complete atrioventricular block (CCAVB) has changed during the last decades. The current policy is to pace the majority of patients based on a variety of criteria, among which is limited exercise capacity. Data regarding exercise capacity in this population stems from previous publications reporting small case series of unpaced patients. Therefore, we have investigated the exercise capacity of a group of contemporary children with CCAVB. Sixteen children (mean age 11.5 +/- 4; seven boys, nine girls) with CCAVB were tested. In 13 patients, a median number of three pacemakers were implanted, whereas in three patients no pacemaker was given. All patients had an echocardiogram and completed a cardiopulmonary cycle exercise test. Exercise parameters were determined and compared with reference values obtained from healthy Dutch peers. The peak oxygen uptake/body mass was reduced to 34.4 +/- 9.5 ml kg(-1) min(-1) (79 +/- 24% of predicted) and the ventilatory threshold was reduced to 52 +/- 17% of peak oxygen uptake (78 +/- 21% of predicted), whereas the peak work load/body mass was 2.8 +/- 0.6 W/kg (91 +/- 24% of predicted), which was similar to controls. Importantly, 25% of the paced patients showed upper rate restriction by the pacemaker. In conclusion, children with CCAVB show a reduced peak oxygen uptake and ventilatory threshold, whereas they show normal peak work rates. This indicates that they generate more energy during exercise from anaerobic energy sources. Paced children with CCAVB do not perform better than unpaced children.1 april 201

A Multicenter, Long-Term Study on Arrhythmias in Children with Ebstein Anomaly

To assess the prevalence, history, and treatment of arrhythmias, in particular preexcitation and Wolff–Parkinson–White (WPW) syndrome, in patients with Ebstein anomaly (EA) during childhood and adolescence, we performed a multicenter retrospective study of all consecutive live-born patients with EA, diagnosed, and followed by pediatric cardiologists between 1980 and 2005 in The Netherlands. During a follow-up after EA diagnosis of 13 years 3 months (range: 6 days to 28 years 2 months), 16 (17%) of the 93 pediatric EA patients exhibited rhythm disturbances. Nine patients showed arrhythmic events starting as of the neonatal period. Supraventricular tachycardia was noted in 11 patients. One patient died in the neonatal period due to intractable supraventricular tachycardia resulting in heart failure and one patient died at 5 weeks of age most probably due to an arrhythmic event. The 14 surviving patients all show preexcitation, albeit 4 of them intermittently, and all have a right-sided accessory pathway location. Nine patients underwent catheter ablation of an accessory pathway. Only four patients are currently on antiarrhythmic drugs. The 17% prevalence of rhythm disturbances in pediatric EA patients, most commonly supraventricular arrhythmias, is significantly lower than in adult EA patients. Life-threatening rhythm disturbances are not frequent early in life. Symptomatic patients are well treated with radiofrequency catheter ablation

Speculative Method and Twitter: Bots, Energy and Three Conceptual Characters

This paper aims to contribute to recent innovations in social scientific methodology that aspire to address the complex, iterative and performative dimensions of method. In particular, we focus on the becoming-with character of social events, and propose a speculative method for engaging with the not-as-yet. This work, being part of a larger project that uses Speculative Design and ethnographic methods to explore energy-demand reduction, specifically considers the ways in which energy-demand reduction features in the Twitter-sphere. Developing and deploying three automated Bots whose function and communications are at best obscure, and not uncommonly nonsensical, we trace some of ways in which they intervene and provoke. Heuristically, we draw on the ‘conceptual characters’ of idiot, parasite and diplomat in order to grasp how the Bots act within Twitter to evoke the instability and emergent eventuations of energy-demand reduction, community and related practices. We conclude by drawing out some of the wider implications of this particular enactment of speculative method