Population Dynamics on Complex Food Webs

In this work we analyse the topological and dynamical properties of a simple model of complex food webs, namely the niche model. In order to underline competition among species, we introduce "prey" and "predators" weighted overlap graphs derived from the niche model and compare synthetic food webs with real data. Doing so, we find new tests for the goodness of synthetic food web models and indicate a possible direction of improvement for existing ones. We then exploit the weighted overlap graphs to define a competition kernel for Lotka-Volterra population dynamics and find that for such a model the stability of food webs decreases with its ecological complexity.Comment: 11 Pages, 5 Figures, styles enclosed in the submissio

On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity

Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability, written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity. One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16 writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Power-law distributions in empirical data

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is complicated by the large fluctuations that occur in the tail of the distribution -- the part of the distribution representing large but rare events -- and by the difficulty of identifying the range over which power-law behavior holds. Commonly used methods for analyzing power-law data, such as least-squares fitting, can produce substantially inaccurate estimates of parameters for power-law distributions, and even in cases where such methods return accurate answers they are still unsatisfactory because they give no indication of whether the data obey a power law at all. Here we present a principled statistical framework for discerning and quantifying power-law behavior in empirical data. Our approach combines maximum-likelihood fitting methods with goodness-of-fit tests based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and likelihood ratios. We evaluate the effectiveness of the approach with tests on synthetic data and give critical comparisons to previous approaches. We also apply the proposed methods to twenty-four real-world data sets from a range of different disciplines, each of which has been conjectured to follow a power-law distribution. In some cases we find these conjectures to be consistent with the data while in others the power law is ruled out.Comment: 43 pages, 11 figures, 7 tables, 4 appendices; code available at http://www.santafe.edu/~aaronc/powerlaws

A Poissonian explanation for heavy-tails in e-mail communication

Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence provides an attractive proxy for studying human activity. Recently, it was reported that the probability density for the inter-event time $\tau$ between consecutively sent e-mails decays asymptotically as $\tau^{-\alpha}$, with $\alpha \approx 1$. The slower than exponential decay of the inter-event time distribution suggests that deliberate human activity is inherently non-Poissonian. Here, we demonstrate that the approximate power-law scaling of the inter-event time distribution is a consequence of circadian and weekly cycles of human activity. We propose a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson process which explicitly integrates these periodic patterns in activity with an individual's tendency to continue participating in an activity. Using standard statistical techniques, we show that our model is consistent with the empirical data. Our findings may also provide insight into the origins of heavy-tailed distributions in other complex systems.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Two-Phase Thermal Switching System for a Small, Extended Duration Lunar Science Platform

Issue: extended duration lunar science platforms, using solar/battery or radioisotope power, require thermal switching systems that: a) Provide efficient cooling during the 15-earth-day 390 K lunar day; b) Consume minimal power during the 15-earth-day 100 K lunar night. Objective: carry out an analytical study of thermal switching systems that can meet the thermal requirements of: a) International Lunar Network (ILN) anchor node mission - primary focus; b) Other missions such as polar crater landers. ILN Anchor Nodes: network of geophysical science platforms to better understand the interior structure/composition of the moon: a) Rationale: no data since Apollo seismic stations ceased operation in 1977; b) Anchor Nodes: small, low-power, long-life (6-yr) landers with seismographic and a few other science instruments (see next chart); c) WEB: warm electronics box houses ILN anchor node electronics/batteries. Technology Need: thermal switching system that will keep the WEB cool during the lunar day and warm during the lunar night

Development and Testing of the CRYOTSU Flight Experiment

This paper describes the development and ground testing of the CRYOTSU thermal management flight experiment. CRYOTSU incorporates three cryogenic temperature experiments and one ambient temperature experiment into a Hitchhiker (HH) Get Away Special (GAS) Canister that is currently scheduled to fly on STS-95 in October 1998. The cryogenic experiments consist of a nitrogen triple-point cryogenic thermal storage unit (CTSU), a nitrogen cryogenic capillary pumped loop (CCPL), and a hydrogen gas-gap cryogenic thermal switch (CTSW). The ambient experiment is a carbon-fiber core, paraffin-filled thermal storage unit. Test results of integrated flight canister testing are provided herein for the CTSU and CCPL experiments. Pre-integration laboratory test results are provided for the CTSW. Design information and test results for the ambient experiment are not included

Efficient Passive ICS Device Discovery and Identification by MAC Address Correlation

Owing to a growing number of attacks, the assessment of Industrial Control Systems (ICSs) has gained in importance. An integral part of an assessment is the creation of a detailed inventory of all connected devices, enabling vulnerability evaluations. For this purpose, scans of networks are crucial. Active scanning, which generates irregular traffic, is a method to get an overview of connected and active devices. Since such additional traffic may lead to an unexpected behavior of devices, active scanning methods should be avoided in critical infrastructure networks. In such cases, passive network monitoring offers an alternative, which is often used in conjunction with complex deep-packet inspection techniques. There are very few publications on lightweight passive scanning methodologies for industrial networks. In this paper, we propose a lightweight passive network monitoring technique using an efficient Media Access Control (MAC) address-based identification of industrial devices. Based on an incomplete set of known MAC address to device associations, the presented method can guess correct device and vendor information. Proving the feasibility of the method, an implementation is also introduced and evaluated regarding its efficiency. The feasibility of predicting a specific device/vendor combination is demonstrated by having similar devices in the database. In our ICS testbed, we reached a host discovery rate of 100% at an identification rate of more than 66%, outperforming the results of existing tools.Comment: http://dx.doi.org/10.14236/ewic/ICS2018.

Canopy bird assemblages are less influenced by habitat age and isolation than understory bird assemblages in Neotropical secondary forest

Secondary forest habitats are increasingly recognized for their potential to conserve biodiversity in the tropics. However, the development of faunal assemblages in secondary forest systems varies according to habitat quality and species‐specific traits. In this study, we predicted that the recovery of bird assemblages is dependent on secondary forest age and level of isolation, the forest stratum examined, and the species’ traits of feeding guild and body mass. This study was undertaken in secondary forests in central Panama; spanning a chronosequence of 60‐, 90‐, and 120‐year‐old forests, and in neighboring old‐growth forest. To give equal attention to all forest strata, we employed a novel method that paired simultaneous surveys in canopy and understory. This survey method provides a more nuanced picture than ground‐based studies, which are biased toward understory assemblages. Bird reassembly varied according to both habitat age and isolation, although it was challenging to separate these effects, as the older sites were also more isolated than the younger sites. In combination, habitat age and isolation impacted understory birds more than canopy‐dwelling birds. Proportions of dietary guilds did not vary with habitat age, but were significantly different between strata. Body mass distributions were similar across forest ages for small‐bodied birds, but older forest supported more large‐bodied birds, probably due to control of poaching at these sites. Canopy assemblages were characterized by higher species richness, and greater variation in both dietary breadth and body mass, relative to understory assemblages. The results highlight that secondary forests may offer critical refugia for many bird species, particularly specialist canopy‐dwellers. However, understory bird species may be less able to adapt to novel and isolated habitats and should be the focus of conservation efforts encouraging bird colonization of secondary forests

Similar composition of functional roles in Andean seed-dispersal networks, despite high species and interaction turnover

The species composition of local communities varies in space, and its similarity generally decreases with increasing geographic distance between communities, a phenomenon known as distance decay of similarity. It is, however, not known how changes in local species composition affect ecological processes, that is, whether they lead to differences in the local composition of species' functional roles. We studied eight seed-dispersal networks along the South American Andes and compared them with regard to their species composition and their composition of functional roles. We tested (1) if changes in bird species composition lead to changes in the composition of bird functional roles, and (2) if the similarity in species composition and functional-role composition decreased with increasing geographic distance between the networks. We also used cluster analysis to (3) identify bird species with similar roles across all networks based on the similarity in the plants they consume, (i) considering only the species identity of the plants and (ii) considering the functional traits of the plants. Despite strong changes in species composition, the networks along the Andes showed similar composition of functional roles. (1) Changes in species composition generally did not lead to changes in the composition of functional roles. (2) Similarity in species composition, but not functional-role composition, decreased with increasing geographic distance between the networks. (3) The cluster analysis considering the functional traits of plants identified bird species with similar functional roles across all networks. The similarity in functional roles despite the high species turnover suggests that the ecological process of seed dispersal is organized similarly along the Andes, with similar functional roles fulfilled locally by different sets of species. The high species turnover, relative to functional turnover, also indicates that a large number of bird species are needed to maintain the seed-dispersal process along the Andes.Fil: Dehling, D. Matthias. University of Canterbury; Nueva ZelandaFil: Peralta, Guadalupe. University of Canterbury; Nueva ZelandaFil: Bender, Irene Maria Antoinetta. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Blendinger, Pedro Gerardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; ArgentinaFil: Böhning Gaese, Katrin. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Muñoz, Marcia C.. Universidad de la Salle; ColombiaFil: Neuschulz, Eike Lena. Senckenberg Biodiversität Und Klima Forschungszentrum; AlemaniaFil: Quitián, Marta. Senckenberg Biodiversität Und Klima Forschungszentrum; AlemaniaFil: Saavedra, Francisco. Universidad Mayor de San Andrés; BoliviaFil: Santillán, Vinicio. Senckenberg Biodiversität Und Klima Forschungszentrum; AlemaniaFil: Schleuning, Matthias. Senckenberg Biodiversität Und Klima Forschungszentrum; AlemaniaFil: Stouffer, Daniel B.. University of Canterbury; Nueva Zeland