Chapter 10 - Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional

This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The chapter adopts the terminology for detection and attribution proposed by the IPCC good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution (Hegerl et al., 2010) and for uncertainty Mastrandrea et al. (2011). Detection and attribution of impacts of climate changes are assessed by Working Group II, where Chapter 18 assesses the extent to which atmospheric and oceanic changes influence ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and activities in economic sectors

To wet or not to wet: that is the question

Wetting transitions have been predicted and observed to occur for various combinations of fluids and surfaces. This paper describes the origin of such transitions, for liquid films on solid surfaces, in terms of the gas-surface interaction potentials V(r), which depend on the specific adsorption system. The transitions of light inert gases and H2 molecules on alkali metal surfaces have been explored extensively and are relatively well understood in terms of the least attractive adsorption interactions in nature. Much less thoroughly investigated are wetting transitions of Hg, water, heavy inert gases and other molecular films. The basic idea is that nonwetting occurs, for energetic reasons, if the adsorption potential's well-depth D is smaller than, or comparable to, the well-depth of the adsorbate-adsorbate mutual interaction. At the wetting temperature, Tw, the transition to wetting occurs, for entropic reasons, when the liquid's surface tension is sufficiently small that the free energy cost in forming a thick film is sufficiently compensated by the fluid- surface interaction energy. Guidelines useful for exploring wetting transitions of other systems are analyzed, in terms of generic criteria involving the "simple model", which yields results in terms of gas-surface interaction parameters and thermodynamic properties of the bulk adsorbate.Comment: Article accepted for publication in J. Low Temp. Phy

The XMM Cluster Survey: Exploring scaling relations and completeness of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 redMaPPer cluster catalogue

We cross-match and compare characteristics of galaxy clusters identified in observations from two sky surveys using two completely different techniques. One sample is optically selected from the analysis of three years of Dark Energy Survey observations using the redMaPPer cluster detection algorithm. The second is X-ray selected from XMM observations analysed by the XMM Cluster Survey. The samples comprise a total area of 57.4 deg$^2$, bounded by the area of 4 contiguous XMM survey regions that overlap the DES footprint. We find that the X-ray selected sample is fully matched with entries in the redMaPPer catalogue, above $\lambda>$20 and within 0.1$< z <$0.9. Conversely, only 38\% of the redMaPPer catalogue is matched to an X-ray extended source. Next, using 120 optically clusters and 184 X-ray selected clusters, we investigate the form of the X-ray luminosity-temperature ($L_{X}-T_{X}$), luminosity-richness ($L_{X}-\lambda$) and temperature-richness ($T_{X}-\lambda$) scaling relations. We find that the fitted forms of the $L_{X}-T_{X}$ relations are consistent between the two selection methods and also with other studies in the literature. However, we find tentative evidence for a steepening of the slope of the relation for low richness systems in the X-ray selected sample. When considering the scaling of richness with X-ray properties, we again find consistency in the relations (i.e., $L_{X}-\lambda$ and $T_{X}-\lambda$) between the optical and X-ray selected samples. This is contrary to previous similar works that find a significant increase in the scatter of the luminosity scaling relation for X-ray selected samples compared to optically selected samples.Comment: Accepted for publication to MNRA

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescale

Trans-ancestry genome-wide association study identifies 12 genetic loci influencing blood pressure and implicates a role for DNA methylation

We carried out a trans-ancestry genome-wide association and replication study of blood pressure phenotypes among up to 320,251 individuals of East Asian, European and South Asian ancestry. We find genetic variants at 12 new loci to be associated with blood pressure (P = 3.9 &times; 10-11 to 5.0 &times; 10-21). The sentinel blood pressure SNPs are enriched for association with DNA methylation at multiple nearby CpG sites, suggesting that, at some of the loci identified, DNA methylation may lie on the regulatory pathway linking sequence variation to blood pressure. The sentinel SNPs at the 12 new loci point to genes involved in vascular smooth muscle (IGFBP3, KCNK3, PDE3A and PRDM6) and renal (ARHGAP24, OSR1, SLC22A7 and TBX2) function. The new and known genetic variants predict increased left ventricular mass, circulating levels of NT-proBNP, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P = 0.04 to 8.6 &times; 10-6). Our results provide new evidence for the role of DNA methylation in blood pressure regulation

Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

International audienceUnderstanding and Attributing Climate Change Chapter