Is there a trend in cirrus cloud cover due to aircraft traffic?

Trends in cirrus cloud cover have been estimated based on 16 years of data from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project). The results have been spatially correlated with aircraft density data to determine the changes in cirrus cloud cover due to aircraft traffic. The correlations are only moderate, as many other factors have also contributed to changes in cirrus. Still we regard the results to be indicative of an impact of aircraft on cirrus amount. The main emphasis of our study is on the area covered by the METEOSAT satellite to avoid trends in the ISCCP data resulting from changing satellite viewing geometry. In Europe, which is within the METEOSAT region, we find indications of a trend of about 1-2% cloud cover per decade due to aircraft, in reasonable agreement with previous studies. The positive trend in cirrus in areas of high aircraft traffic contrasts with a general negative trend in cirrus. Extrapolation in time to cover the entire period of aircraft operations and in space to cover the global scale yields a mean estimate of 0.03 Wm^-2 (lower limit 0.01, upper limit 0.08 Wm^-2) for the radiative forcing due to aircraft induced cirrus. The mean is close to the value given by IPCC (1999) as an upper limit

Is there a trend in cirrus cloud cover due to aircraft traffic?

International audienceTrends in cirrus cloud cover have been estimated based on 16 years of data from ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project). The results have been spatially correlated with aircraft density data to determine the changes in cirrus could cover due to aircraft traffic. Main emphasis has been on the area covered by the METEOSAT satellite, to avoid trends in the ISCCP data resulting from changing satellite positions. An alternative retrieval of high clouds in this region has been used to complement the analysis based on ISCCP data. In Europe, which is within the METEOSAT region, we find indications of a trend of about 2%/decade due to aircraft, in reasonable agreement with previous studies. The positive trend in cirrus in areas of high aircraft traffic seems to have contrasted a general negative trend in cirrus. Extrapolation in time to cover the entire period of aircraft operations and in space to cover the global scale yields a best estimate of 0.05 Wm?2 for the radiative forcing due to aircraft. This is close to the value given by IPCC (1999) as an upper limit

Combined observational and modeling based study of the aerosol indirect effect

International audienceThe indirect effect of aerosols via liquid clouds is investigated by comparing aerosol and cloud characteristics from the Global Climate Model CAM-Oslo to those observed by the MODIS instrument onboard the TERRA and AQUA satellites http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov). The comparison is carried out for 15 selected regions ranging from remote and clean to densely populated and polluted. For each region, the regression coefficient and correlation coefficient for the following parameters are calculated: Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Liquid Cloud Optical Thickness, Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Liquid Cloud Droplet Effective Radius and Aerosol Optical Depth vs. Cloud Liquid Water Path. Modeled and observed correlation coefficients and regression coefficients are then compared for a 3-year period starting in January 2001. Additionally, global maps for a number of aerosol and cloud parameters crucial for the understanding of the aerosol indirect effect are compared for the same period of time. Significant differences are found between MODIS and CAM-Oslo both in the regional and global comparison. However, both the model and the observations show a positive correlation between Aerosol Optical Depth and Cloud Optical Depth in practically all regions and for all seasons, in agreement with the current understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. The correlation between Aerosol Optical Depth and Liquid Cloud Droplet Effective Radius is variable both in the model and the observations. However, the model reports the expected negative correlation more often than the MODIS data. Aerosol Optical Depth is overall positively correlated to Cloud Liquid Water Path both in the model and the observations, with a few regional exceptions

TRADEOFFs in climate effects through aircraft routing: forcing due to radiatively active gases

We have estimated impacts of alternative aviation routings on the radiative forcing. Changes in ozone and OH have been estimated in four Chemistry Transport Models (CTMs) participating in the TRADEOFF project. Radiative forcings due to ozone and methane have been calculated accordingly. In addition radiative forcing due to CO2 is estimated based on fuel consumption. Three alternative routing cases are investigated; one scenario assuming additional polar routes and two scenarios assuming aircraft cruising at higher (+2000 ft) and lower (−6000 ft) altitudes. Results from the base case in year 2000 are included as a reference. Taking first a steady state backward looking approach, adding the changes in the forcing from ozone, CO2 and CH4, the ranges of the models used in this work are −0.8 to −1.8 and 0.3 to 0.6 m Wm−2 in the lower (−6000 ft) and higher (+2000 ft) cruise levels, respectively. In relative terms, flying 6000ft lower reduces the forcing by 5–10% compared to the current flight pattern, whereas flying higher, while saving fuel and presumably flying time, increases the forcing by about 2–3%. Taking next a forward looking approach we have estimated the integrated forcing (m Wm−2 yr) over 20 and 100 years time horizons. The relative contributions from each of the three climate gases are somewhat different from the backward looking approach. The differences are moderate adopting 100 year time horizon, whereas under the 20 year horizon CO2 naturally becomes less important relatively. Thus the forcing agents impact climate differently on various time scales. Also, we have found significant differences between the models for ozone and methane. We conclude that we are not yet at a point where we can include non-CO2 effects of aviation in emission trading schemes. Nevertheless, the rerouting cases that have been studied here yield relatively small changes in the radiative forcing due to the radiatively active gases

Depression and anxiety in relation to catechol-O-methyltransferase Val158Met genotype in the general population: The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene contains a functional polymorphism, Val158Met, which has been linked to anxiety and depression, but previous results are not conclusive. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between the Val158Met COMT gene polymorphism and anxiety and depression measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) in the general adult population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) the association between the Val158Met polymorphism and anxiety and depression was evaluated in a random sample of 5531 individuals. Two different cut off scores (≥ 8 and ≥ 11) were used to identify cases with anxiety (HADS-A) and depression (HADS-D), whereas controls had HADS-A <8 and HADS-D <8.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The COMT genotype distribution was similar between controls and individuals in the groups with anxiety and depression using cut-off scores of ≥ 8. When utilizing the alternative cut-off score HADS-D ≥ 11, Met/Met genotype and Met allele were less common among men with depression compared to the controls (genotype: p = 0.017, allele: p = 0.006). In the multivariate analysis, adjusting for age and heart disease, depression (HADS-D ≥ 11) was less likely among men with the Met/Met genotype than among men with the Val/Val genotype (OR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.18–0.76).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this population-based study, no clear association between the Val158Met polymorphism and depression and anxiety was revealed. The Met/Met genotype was less likely among men with depression defined as HADS-D ≥ 11, but this may be an incidental finding.</p

Less is more: Antibiotics at the beginning of life

Antibiotic exposure at the beginning of life can lead to increased antimicrobial resistance and perturbations of the developing microbiome. Early-life microbiome disruption increases the risks of developing chronic diseases later in life. Fear of missing evolving neonatal sepsis is the key driver for antibiotic overtreatment early in life. Bias (a systemic deviation towards overtreatment) and noise (a random scatter) affect the decision-making process. In this perspective, we advocate for a factual approach quantifying the burden of treatment in relation to the burden of disease balancing antimicrobial stewardship and effective sepsis management

BRCA1 promoter methylation and clinical outcomes in ovarian cancer: an individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND BRCA1 methylation has been associated with homologous recombination deficiency, a biomarker of platinum sensitivity. Studies evaluating BRCA1-methylated tubal/ovarian cancer (OC) do not consistently support improved survival following platinum chemotherapy. We examine the characteristics of BRCA1-methylated OC in a meta-analysis of individual participant data. METHODS 2636 participants' data across 15 studies were analyzed. BRCA1-methylated tumors were defined according to their original study. Associations between BRCA1 methylation and clinico-pathological characteristics were evaluated. The effects of methylation on overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were examined using mixed-effects models. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS 430 (16.3%) tumors were BRCA1-methylated. BRCA1 methylation was associated with younger age and advanced-stage high-grade serous OC. There were no survival differences between BRCA1-methylated and non-BRCA1-methylated OC (median PFS = 20.0 vs 18.5 months, HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.87-1.16, P=0.98; median OS = 46.6 vs 48.0 months, HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.87-1.18, P=0.96). Where BRCA1/2 mutations were evaluated (n = 1248), BRCA1 methylation displayed no survival advantage over BRCA1/2 intact (BRCA1/2 wild type non-BRCA1-methylated) OC. Studies used different methods to define BRCA1 methylation. Where BRCA1 methylation was determined using methylation-specific PCR and gel electrophoresis (n = 834), it was associated with improved survival (PFS: HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.66-0.97, P=0.02; OS: HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.63-1.00, P=0.05) on mixed-effects modelling. CONCLUSION BRCA1-methylated OC displays similar clinico-pathological features to BRCA1-mutated OC, but is not associated with survival. Heterogeneity within BRCA1 methylation assays influences associations. Refining these assays may better identify cases with silenced BRCA1 function and improved patient outcomes

Sigma-2 receptor ligand as a novel method for delivering a SMAC mimetic drug for treating ovarian cancer

BACKGROUND: The sigma-2 receptor has been validated as a biomarker for proliferating tumours. Second mitochondria-derived activator of caspase (Smac) is a protein released from mitochondria into the cytosol, leading to apoptosis. In this study, we investigated a sigma-2 ligand as a tumour-targeting drug delivery agent for treating ovarian cancer. METHODS: A sigma-2 ligand, SW 43, was conjugated with a Smac mimetic compound (SMC), SW IV-52s, to form SW III-123. The delivery function of the sigma-2 moiety and cell killing mechanisms of SW III-123 were examined in human ovarian cancer cell lines. RESULTS: SW III-123 internalisation into ovarian cancer cells was mediated by sigma-2 receptors. SW III-123, but not SW IV-52s or SW 43, exhibited potent cytotoxicity in human ovarian cancer cell lines SKOV-3, CaOV-3 and BG-1 after 24-h treatment, suggesting that the sigma-2 ligand successfully delivered SMC into ovarian cancer cells. SW III-123 induced rapid degradation of inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (cIAP1 and cIAP2), accumulation of NF-κB-inducing kinase (NIK) and phosphorylation of NF-κB p65, suggesting that SW III-123 activated both canonical and noncanonical NF-κB pathways in SKOV-3 cells. SW III-123 cleaved caspase-8, -9 and -3. Tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) antibody markedly blocked SW III-123-induced cell death and caspase-3 activity in SKOV-3 cells, indicating that SW III-123 activated both intrinsic and extrinsic apoptotic pathways and induced TNFα-dependent cell death in SKOV-3 cells. CONCLUSION: Sigma-2 ligands are a promising tumour-targeting drug delivery agent. Sigma-2-conjugated SMC exemplifies a novel class of therapeutic drugs for treating ovarian cancer

Long term records of erosional change from marine ferromanganese crusts

Ferromanganese crusts from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans record the Nd and Pb isotope compositions of the water masses from which they form as hydrogenous precipitates. The10Be/9Be-calibrated time series for crusts are compared to estimates based on Co-contents, from which the equatorial Pacific crusts studied are inferred to have recorded ca. 60 Ma of Pacific deep water history. Time series of ɛNd show that the oceans have maintained a strong provinciality in Nd isotopic composition, determined by terrigenous inputs, over periods of up to 60 Ma. Superimposed on the distinct basin-specific signatures are variations in Nd and Pb isotope time series which have been particularly marked over the last 5 Ma. It is shown that changes in erosional inputs, particularly associated with Himalayan uplift and the northern hemisphere glaciation have influenced Indian and Atlantic Ocean deep water isotopic compositions respectively. There is no evidence so far for an imprint of the final closure of the Panama Isthmus on the Pb and Nd isotopic composition in either Atlantic or Pacific deep water masses